【摘要】：新財(cái)富最佳分析師評(píng)選是《新財(cái)富》雜志的核心排名之一，自2003年首屆新財(cái)富最佳分析師評(píng)選成功舉辦以來，這個(gè)代表著中國(guó)賣方分析師最佳榮譽(yù)的評(píng)選大會(huì)至今已經(jīng)成功舉辦了十屆。新財(cái)富最佳分析師目前已經(jīng)獲得了絕大多數(shù)基金、保險(xiǎn)等廣大機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的認(rèn)可，成為業(yè)內(nèi)公認(rèn)的最具權(quán)威性的賣方分析師評(píng)選活動(dòng)，對(duì)于各大券商研究所來說意義重大。該排名對(duì)提升證券分析師影響力，倡導(dǎo)研究創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的理性投資觀念，推動(dòng)資本市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展起到了積極作用。 本文選取了2007、2008、2009年度各行業(yè)前三名的新財(cái)富分析師為研究對(duì)象，研究其獲獎(jiǎng)后次年，即對(duì)應(yīng)在牛市(2009年)，熊市(2008年)，震蕩市（2010年）所出具的個(gè)股研究報(bào)告作為樣本數(shù)據(jù)，根據(jù)新財(cái)富評(píng)選的行業(yè)分類方法，將行業(yè)分為周期類、成長(zhǎng)類、公用事業(yè)類三大類，從研究報(bào)告的評(píng)級(jí)準(zhǔn)確性、目標(biāo)價(jià)達(dá)成度、超額收益率三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行深入研究和分析；分類別討論周期類、成長(zhǎng)類和公用事業(yè)類三類不同分析師群體的差異以及造成這些差異的原因，并給出以下幾點(diǎn)實(shí)際應(yīng)用中的參考方法： 1、對(duì)于新財(cái)富分析師給予買入以上評(píng)級(jí)的股票，，在6個(gè)月之內(nèi)約有一半的機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)5%以上的漲幅，可以作為建倉(cāng)的一個(gè)參考指標(biāo)。同時(shí)，由于一些以股票為標(biāo)的證券的理財(cái)產(chǎn)品分紅條款中多數(shù)有設(shè)置一個(gè)固定漲幅，也可以作為投資理財(cái)產(chǎn)品的一個(gè)參考指標(biāo)。 2、單純看研究報(bào)告的目標(biāo)價(jià)沒有意義，盲目依據(jù)目標(biāo)價(jià)進(jìn)行買入賣出操作更是危險(xiǎn)中的危險(xiǎn)。搞清楚研究報(bào)告的核心邏輯和關(guān)鍵假設(shè)，把握好股價(jià)上漲的催化劑，比單純看一個(gè)價(jià)格更加重要。 3、牛市中新財(cái)富分析師推薦的個(gè)股普遍都能跑贏市場(chǎng)，周期類分析師薦股波動(dòng)性大，適合激進(jìn)類型投資者；成長(zhǎng)類分析師薦股波動(dòng)性較小，適合穩(wěn)健型投資者，其投資組合在震蕩市中表現(xiàn)比其他兩類分析師更好。 4、熊市中新財(cái)富分析師的投資組合普遍跑輸市場(chǎng)，不適合作為建倉(cāng)的依據(jù)。 5、對(duì)于新財(cái)富分析師給出賣出評(píng)級(jí)的證券要格外注意，特別是從持有下調(diào)至賣出評(píng)價(jià)的證券，其評(píng)級(jí)準(zhǔn)確度接近90%，擁有相當(dāng)高的現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:New Fortune Best analyst is one of the core rankings of New Fortune magazine. Since 2003, the first New Fortune Best analyst Award has been held successfully. The selection conference, which represents the best honor of Chinese seller analysts, has been successfully held for 10 times. New Fortune's best analysts have now won the approval of the vast majority of funds, insurance and other institutional investors, becoming the industry's most authoritative seller's analyst selection campaign, for the major securities research institutes for a great deal of significance. The ranking has played a positive role in enhancing the influence of securities analysts, advocating the rational investment concept of value creation and promoting the healthy development of capital markets. This paper selects the top three new wealth analysts in every industry in 2007 / 2008 as the research object, and studies the following year after winning the award, that is, in bull market (2009), bear market (2008). The stock research report issued by concussion City (2010) as sample data, according to the industry classification method of the new wealth evaluation, divides the industry into three categories: cycle category, growth category and public utility category. From the accuracy of the rating of the research report, The achievement degree of target price and the excess return rate are studied and analyzed in depth. The paper discusses the differences among the different analyst groups of the periodic, growth and utility categories and the reasons for these differences. The following reference methods are given in the practical application: 1. For new wealth analysts to buy stocks rated above, about half of the chance of more than 5 percent increase in six months, can be used as a reference for building positions. At the same time, because most of the dividend clauses of some stocks and securities have a fixed increase, they can also be used as a reference index of investment financial products. 2, simply looking at the target price of the research report has no meaning, blindly according to the target price to buy and sell operation is dangerous in the danger. It is more important to understand the core logic and key assumptions of the research report and to grasp the catalyst for stock price rise than to look at a price alone. 3, in the bull market, the stocks recommended by the new wealth analysts can generally outperform the market. Growth analyst recommendation stocks are less volatile and sound for investors whose portfolios performed better in volatile markets than in the other two groups of analysts. In the bear market, the portfolio of new wealth analysts generally lost the market, not suitable as a basis for building positions. 5. Special attention should be paid to securities rated by new wealth analysts, especially those that have been downgraded to sell, with a rating accuracy close to 90, which is of considerable practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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1 張莫迪;新財(cái)富分析師研究報(bào)告投資價(jià)值的實(shí)證研究[D];上海交通大學(xué);2014年

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