發(fā)布時間：2018-06-17 04:46

  本文選題：上市公司 + 投資行為　； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國股票市場經(jīng)過二十余年的發(fā)展,無論從上市公司數(shù)量還是股票市值總額都達到了很高水平,然而相對于歐美發(fā)達國家的股票市場,我國的股票市場還不夠成熟,股票市場內(nèi)部機制有待完善。2008年金融危機之后,國家為提振經(jīng)濟而實行了四萬億投資計劃,而同時配套的寬松的貨幣政策導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)M2增長速度過快,廣義貨幣量已經(jīng)超過100萬億元。寬松的貨幣政策造成的流動性除了為政府投資提供保障外還有大量資金進入了資本市場,而流入資本市場的資金有多少能夠正在轉(zhuǎn)化為實體經(jīng)濟的投資對于我國的經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展有著重要意義,因此研究宏觀貨幣政策對上市公司投資的影響具有重要的理論和實踐意義。 以往對上市公司投資行為研究主要是從企業(yè)財務(wù)狀況和資本結(jié)構(gòu)等方面做出的,主要研究是在微觀層面進行,而對國家宏觀經(jīng)濟政策如何影響到上市公司的投資則很少研究,本文的研究正是彌補了這方面的研究空白,以上市公司的利潤額、股權(quán)融資額、債務(wù)融資額為中介指標(biāo),通過兩個階段的傳導(dǎo)機制,其中第一階段為貨幣政策如何影響中介指標(biāo),第二階段為中介指標(biāo)如何影響上市公司的投資,將上市公司的投資支出與宏觀貨幣政策的變化聯(lián)系起來,達到宏觀經(jīng)濟政策與微觀企業(yè)行為的有機統(tǒng)一,同時為宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的制定者提供微觀理論基礎(chǔ)。 本文采用了理論分析與實證研究相結(jié)合的方法,對上市公司投資支出與影響上市公司投資支出的各個宏觀層面與微觀層面的因素之間存在的關(guān)系進行了分析,運用我國股票市場上市公司的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),運用ADF單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、雙對數(shù)多元回歸模型,在傳導(dǎo)機制的第一階段以廣義貨幣量M2為解釋變量,三種傳導(dǎo)機制的中介指標(biāo)為被解釋變量,分別做實證分析,驗證貨幣政策是否能夠引起中介指標(biāo)的顯著變化,保證傳導(dǎo)機制的第一階段暢通。而在傳導(dǎo)機制的第二階段則以上市公司為購建固定資產(chǎn)、無形資產(chǎn)和其他長期資產(chǎn)支付的現(xiàn)金為被解釋變量,以股權(quán)融資額、債務(wù)融資額、利潤為解釋變量,通過研究貨幣政策三種傳導(dǎo)機制的中介指標(biāo)與上市公司投資支出的關(guān)系,來驗證傳導(dǎo)機制的第二階段是否暢通,通過兩個階段、三種傳導(dǎo)機制的研究,得出的結(jié)論是：貨幣政策影響上市公司投資的三種傳導(dǎo)機制在由貨幣政策變化到中介指標(biāo)變化的第一階段能夠順利地傳導(dǎo),而在第二階段由中介指標(biāo)到上市公司投資的傳導(dǎo)中,股權(quán)融資額無論是在大型上市公司還是小型上市公司都無法順利傳導(dǎo),利潤額與債務(wù)融資額只對大型上市公司而言能夠順利傳導(dǎo),對于小型上市公司而言三種中介指標(biāo)均無法順利傳導(dǎo)。 從總體上看宏觀貨幣政策主要是通過影響上市公司的負(fù)債融資額和利潤來影響上市公司的投資支出,而股權(quán)融資額對上市公司的投資影響不大,主要原因在于我國資本市場不成熟,很多大型國有上市公司對股權(quán)融資獲得的資金并未真正用于投資支出,而是解決企業(yè)內(nèi)部或母公司資金緊張問題,并且由于市場利率并未完全實現(xiàn)市場化與國有企業(yè)軟預(yù)算約束問題的存在,使得上市公司的投資行為對宏觀貨幣政策的敏感性也不高。本文提出的政策建議是：首先要加強利率市場化改革步伐,使市場利率能夠充分反映貨幣政策的變動,并通過影響資金成本對上市公司的投資收益造成影響,從而影響到上市公司的投資行為。其次要減少地方政府對銀行信貸的干預(yù),并嚴(yán)格控制國有企業(yè)的軟預(yù)算約束機制,使國有上市公司的投資效率提高,減少重復(fù)低效的投資支出,而后還要完善股票市場對募集資金用途的法律監(jiān)管,減少上市公司股權(quán)募集資金被母公司占用的情況,使股權(quán)募集資金真正用于上市公司的投資支出,最后要加強上市公司的內(nèi)部融資,并處理好內(nèi)部融資與股東分紅之間的矛盾。
[Abstract]:After more than twenty years of development, China's stock market has reached a high level in both the number of listed companies and the total stock market value. However, compared with the stock market in developed countries in Europe and the United States, our stock market is not mature enough. The internal mechanism of the stock market needs to improve the financial crisis of.2008 years. The four trillion investment plan has been carried out, and the loose monetary policy at the same time has led to the rapid growth of M2 in China, and the broad currency has already exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The liquidity of loose monetary policy, in addition to providing guarantee for government investment, has a large amount of capital into the capital market, and how much money can be invested in the capital market. The investment that is being transformed into the real economy is of great significance to the healthy development of China's economy. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of macro monetary policy on the investment of listed companies.
The previous research on the investment behavior of listed companies is mainly from the financial situation and capital structure of the enterprises. The main research is on the micro level, but how the national macroeconomic policy affects the investment of the listed companies is seldom studied. The research of this paper makes up the blank of this research, and the profit of the listed companies. The amount of water, the amount of equity financing and the amount of debt financing are the intermediary indicators, through the transmission mechanism of two stages, in which the first stage is how the monetary policy affects the intermediary indicators. The second stage is how the intermediary index affects the investment of the listed companies, linking the investment expenditure of the listed companies with the changes of macro monetary policy to achieve the macro economy. The organic unity of policy and micro enterprise behavior, at the same time, it provides a micro theoretical foundation for macroeconomic policymakers.
Based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper analyzes the relationship between the investment expenditure of listed companies and the factors that affect the macro level and micro level of the investment expenditure of listed companies. Using the financial data of the listed companies in the stock market of our country, the ADF unit root test, the co integration test, and the double pairs are used. The multiple regression model, in the first stage of the transmission mechanism, takes the generalized monetary quantity M2 as the explanatory variable. The intermediate index of the three transmission mechanisms is interpreted as an explanatory variable. The empirical analysis is made to verify whether the monetary policy can cause significant changes in the intermediary indicators and ensure the first phase of the transmission mechanism. The second stage of the transmission mechanism. In order to verify the second stages of the transmission mechanism, the second phase of the transmission mechanism is verified by the relationship between the intermediary indexes of the three transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and the investment support of the listed companies by taking the cash as the explanatory variable for the listed companies to buy and build the fixed assets, the intangible assets and the other long-term assets. Through two stages and three transmission mechanisms, the conclusion is that the monetary policy affects the three transmission mechanism of the listed company investment in the first stage of the change from the monetary policy to the intermediary index, and in the second stage, the medium refers to the transmission of the listed company investment. Both large listed companies and small listed companies are unable to conduct smoothly, and the amount of profits and debt financing can only be carried out smoothly for large listed companies. For small listed companies, the three intermediary indicators can not be conducted smoothly.
In general, macro monetary policy mainly affects the investment expenditure of listed companies by influencing the debt financing amount and profit of listed companies, and the amount of equity financing has little impact on the investment of listed companies. The main reason is that the capital market is not mature in China, and the funds obtained by many large state-owned listed companies have not been obtained. It is really used to invest in investment, but to solve the problem of capital tension within the enterprise or the parent company, and because the market interest rate is not completely marketed and the soft budget constraints of the state-owned enterprises exist, the sensitivity of the investment behavior of the listed companies to the macro monetary policy is not high. The pace of market-oriented reform of strong interest rate makes the market interest rate fully reflect the change of monetary policy and influence the investment income of listed companies by influencing the cost of capital, thus affecting the investment behavior of listed companies. Secondly, it is necessary to reduce the local government's dry precondition to the bank credit and strictly control the soft budget constraint machine of the state-owned enterprises. In order to improve the investment efficiency of the state-owned listed companies, reduce the cost of duplication of inefficient investment, and then improve the legal supervision of the stock market for the use of fund raising, reduce the situation of the shares raised by the listed companies by the parent company, so that the equity raising funds are really used for the investment expenditure of the listed companies. Finally, the public listed companies should be strengthened. The company's internal financing and handle the contradiction between internal financing and shareholder dividends.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F275;F832.51

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