本文關鍵詞：有效證券市場的理性泡沫與股票內(nèi)在價值的信息濾波，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

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rational bubble

     Rational Bubble in Efficient Stock Markets and the Information Filter of Stock Value

     有效證券市場的理性泡沫與股票內(nèi)在價值的信息濾波

短句來源

     Rational Bubble of China's Stock Market

     中國股市步入理性泡沫階段

短句來源

     Stock market bubble can be divided into rational bubble and irrational bubble.

     理性泡沫是活躍股市所必需的，而非理性泡沫是由于系統(tǒng)的金融風險以及市場狂熱而形成的股市價格的過度膨脹。

短句來源

     The second chapter analyzes stock market's rational bubble and irrational bubble, using model and psychological analysis in this chapter, the author also introduces the common index of testing stock market bubble and analyzes the stock market in china empirically.

     第二部分，，利用數(shù)學模型和心理分析等方法對股市理性泡沫和非理性泡沫進行深入分析，介紹檢驗股市泡沫的常用指標，并對我國股市進行實證分析；

短句來源

     This paper also tests of rational bubbles in several international stock markets including S&P 500 index. Through compare analysis, the result shows that the characters of rational bubble in China stock market conform to the deduction of rational bubbles best and confirm the existence of rational bubbles further.

     本文還對包括標普500指數(shù)在內(nèi)的其它五個世界著名股市進行了理性泡沫的實證檢驗,并與上證指數(shù)的檢驗結(jié)果進行比較分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國股市的理性泡沫特征最明顯,進一步論證并支持了中國股市理性泡沫的存在性。

短句來源

     Tirole(1985)is the classic paper of rational bubble literatures. Under theframework of Diamond’S overlapping generations model,Tirole concluded that whenthe economy iS in the condition 0f Dianmond’S economic inefficency(that iS to say.r<n,the real interest rate is lower than the population growth rate.)

     泰勒爾模型是理性經(jīng)濟泡沫的經(jīng)典文獻,他在交疊世代(OLG)模型的框架下,得出經(jīng)濟處于戴蒙德動態(tài)無效(Diamond’s dynamic inefficiency)的狀念(r<n,即實際利率小于人口增長率)時,引入泡沫可以吸收多余的投資,使經(jīng)濟重新回到動態(tài)有效狀態(tài),提高經(jīng)濟效率。

短句來源

     Taken no account of the short hedge and supposed Rational Bubble Boundary, the positive feedback mechanism of Noise trade driven by the security price is theoretically analyzed and proved by DSSW model and Hirshleifer’s results.

     在合理泡沫邊界和不考慮做空機制條件下,結(jié)合我國證券市場自身的特點,運用DSSW 模型的結(jié)論和Hirshleifer 的研究結(jié)果,對我國價格驅(qū)動型正反饋噪聲交易機制進行了模型構建及實證分析。

短句來源

     This paper studies real estate investment decision and rational bubble by an overlapping generation model. Conclusions are as follows. First, expected income and price are two factors for investment.

     本文以兩階段動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型研究了居民的房地產(chǎn)投資決策和泡沫的形成與爆裂,結(jié)論如下:第一,預期收入和預期價格是決定房地產(chǎn)投資的基本因素;

短句來源

     The producing conditions,measurement methods and forming reasons of the rational bubble in efficient stock markets were discussed.

     對有效證券市場上理性泡沫的產(chǎn)生條件、度量方法和形成原因進行了分析;

短句來源

     Rational Bubble of China's Stock Market

     中國股市步入理性泡沫階段

短句來源

     Rational Creation

     理性的浪漫

短句來源

     The "Rational" Modernity

     “理性化”的現(xiàn)代性

短句來源

     Bubble Chamber

     氣泡室

短句來源

     Rational Bubble in Efficient Stock Markets and the Information Filter of Stock Value

     有效證券市場的理性泡沫與股票內(nèi)在價值的信息濾波

短句來源

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  rational bubble

Under a rational bubble house prices can rise independently of expected future fundamentals.

The reason that they do not assume a rational bubble is that the non-stationarity of a rational bubble leads to technical problems in their framework.

The third issue is related to the fact that the rational bubble model implies an explosive path of asset price when a bubble exists.

The most important condition preventing rational bubbles that Tirole unearthed was an asset with a finite life couldn't suffer a rational bubble.

The weak part of the rational bubble theory is in the modelling of the crash.

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We study in this article the existence of bubbles in China's stock market. We argue that the bubbles in this market could be rational and that the following factors might have contributed to the existence of the rational bubbles in asset prices: (1) The strict rules imposed on stock listing; (2) The lack of choices of financial instruments available to investors; (3) The interference of China's government to asset prices; (4) The non existence of short-sale mechanism; (5) The inefficiency...

We study in this article the existence of bubbles in China's stock market. We argue that the bubbles in this market could be rational and that the following factors might have contributed to the existence of the rational bubbles in asset prices: (1) The strict rules imposed on stock listing; (2) The lack of choices of financial instruments available to investors; (3) The interference of China's government to asset prices; (4) The non existence of short-sale mechanism; (5) The inefficiency of arbitrage mechanism; and (6) Low dividend payments to shareholders of China's public companies. Based on our analyses, we make several recommendations on dealing with the bubbles in asset prices.

傳統(tǒng)理論通常把證券市場的泡沫與投資者的非理性行為混為一談。近期的研究卻表明在一個完全理性的市場中 ,泡沫依然可以出現(xiàn)。本文首先對我國證券市場存在理性泡沫的可能性提出多種理論解釋 ,認為下列原因?qū)е铝宋覈C券市場泡沫的存在 :( 1 )上市審批制 ;( 2 )可供投資的證券種類少 ;( 3 )政府的托市行為 ;( 4)賣空機制的缺乏 ;( 5)套利機制缺乏有效性 ;( 6)上市公司很少分紅 ,投資者買賣股票只是為了獲得買賣差價。其次 ,我們通過分析所得的結(jié)果 ,提出應對理性泡沫的政策措施。

To promote the healthy development of Chinese real asset market,it is very crucial to prevent it from bubbling up.Based on the rationales of rational bubbles,we construct a local RAM equilibrium model and propose the relative conditions for the birth and existence as well as the burst of the rational bubbles.The model provides a simplified and comprehensive explanation on all the effects in forming rational bubbles by the individual's rational expectation,the bank's financing and...

To promote the healthy development of Chinese real asset market,it is very crucial to prevent it from bubbling up.Based on the rationales of rational bubbles,we construct a local RAM equilibrium model and propose the relative conditions for the birth and existence as well as the burst of the rational bubbles.The model provides a simplified and comprehensive explanation on all the effects in forming rational bubbles by the individual's rational expectation,the bank's financing and the government's policies.Meanwhile the model is well consistent with several prominent cases of real asset bubbles in the past.Finally,some proposals are put forward in the macroeconomic perspective.

在目前我國居民消費平淡、投資渠道有限的情況下 ,發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)業(yè) ,拉動內(nèi)需 ,帶動經(jīng)濟整體增長顯然有著重要的意義 ,但促進地產(chǎn)市場健康發(fā)展的同時也要防止房地產(chǎn)過熱 ,尤其是要防止出現(xiàn)嚴重的地產(chǎn)泡沫。本文以這一迫切的現(xiàn)實問題為導向 ,在回顧和借鑒有關經(jīng)濟“泡沫”的基本理論的基礎上 ,構造了一個房地產(chǎn)市場的局部均衡模型 ,給出了地產(chǎn)均衡價格中理性泡沫產(chǎn)生和存在的條件 ,以及導致泡沫破滅的相應條件。在理論上我們的模型為行為人預期、銀行信貸以及政府政策在地產(chǎn)泡沫形成中的重要作用提供了一個簡明、統(tǒng)一的分析框架。模型的基本結(jié)論對歷史上幾次著名的房地產(chǎn)泡沫也有較強的解釋力。在理論和實例分析的基礎上 ,文章的最后給出了目前我國房地產(chǎn)市場是否存在泡沫的基本判斷 ,以及如何進行宏觀調(diào)控的幾點建議。

This paper studies real estate investment decision and rational bubble by an overlapping generation model. Conclusions are as follows. First, expected income and price are two factors for investment. Second, expected income is a random variable which affected by institutional evolution, and hence, over demand and over loan are possible. Third, bubble path is created by interaction between investment and expected price. Finally, the gap between expect and actual income leads to households bankruptcy...

This paper studies real estate investment decision and rational bubble by an overlapping generation model. Conclusions are as follows. First, expected income and price are two factors for investment. Second, expected income is a random variable which affected by institutional evolution, and hence, over demand and over loan are possible. Third, bubble path is created by interaction between investment and expected price. Finally, the gap between expect and actual income leads to households bankruptcy and nonperforming loans of banks.

本文以兩階段動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型研究了居民的房地產(chǎn)投資決策和泡沫的形成與爆裂,結(jié)論如下:第一,預期收入和預期價格是決定房地產(chǎn)投資的基本因素;第二,預期收入受體制影響,具有隨機變量特征,因而房地產(chǎn)存在超買和超貸可能;第三,房地產(chǎn)泡沫累積和爆裂的過程是理性預期下預期房產(chǎn)價格與即期房產(chǎn)投資交互作用的過程;第四,預期收入與實際收入的偏離將直接導致居民部門破產(chǎn)和銀行不良貸款上升。

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  本文關鍵詞：有效證券市場的理性泡沫與股票內(nèi)在價值的信息濾波，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。