本文選題：政府債務(wù) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)��； 參考：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國地方政府債務(wù)問題是當(dāng)前學(xué)界、政界的一個(gè)研究熱點(diǎn),也是難點(diǎn)所在。地方政府債務(wù)有很大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),美國巨額債務(wù)問題的形成和危害是明顯的例子。世界各國政府對(duì)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)研究,希望能得出有效的測量方法和控制機(jī)制以防范和化解債務(wù)危機(jī)。地方政府債務(wù)是一個(gè)很難被研究透徹的問題：一方面各個(gè)國家的制度以及經(jīng)濟(jì)條件互不相同,其他國家的成功的典范難以適用本國,另一方面經(jīng)濟(jì)體系復(fù)雜而且龐大,難以形成全面而有效的調(diào)查研究。“千里之行始于足下”,雖然困難重重,本文依然以數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),在目前國內(nèi)普遍認(rèn)同的或更具解釋性的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的框架內(nèi),調(diào)整并建立新的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo),對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,得出一般結(jié)論。在財(cái)政學(xué)史上,財(cái)政分權(quán)理論的建立是財(cái)政理論的一大突破,在此理論的指導(dǎo)下,各國政府為發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)而采取不同程度的舉債措施,因?yàn)槔碚撋线m當(dāng)?shù)慕鑲袨閷?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有一定的刺激作用,但由于各國家地區(qū)的條件、環(huán)境以及政策不一樣,很多國家或者地區(qū)出現(xiàn)了債務(wù)危機(jī),比較典型的就是希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)問題。 1994年實(shí)行了分稅制改革以來,中央政府收取了大部分的稅收收入,而地方政府的收入縮減。地方政府為了滿足地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要而采取借債措施,使得地方政府債務(wù)逐漸積累,債務(wù)問題日益嚴(yán)重,債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)逐步提高。2008年金融危機(jī)后,為保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的穩(wěn)定增長和就業(yè)率的提高,政府采取了積極的財(cái)政政策,這在一定程度上給地方政府造成很大的配套資金的需求壓力,因?yàn)楹芏嗟胤秸呢?cái)政支出長期大于財(cái)政收入,地方基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也不健全。大部分地方政府只能以舉債的方式獲得資金來發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),這使得地方政府債務(wù)的規(guī)模在短期內(nèi)迅速膨脹。我國地域遼闊,環(huán)境各異,各地區(qū)間的歷史,習(xí)俗相差很大,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也不平衡,特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、文化環(huán)境使得我國的地方政府債務(wù)也呈現(xiàn)出和其他發(fā)達(dá)國家與新興國家不同的特征,因此不能照搬西方國家或其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和發(fā)展模式,應(yīng)從我國各級(jí)地方政府的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)情況來研究債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題。本文首先對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)進(jìn)行定義,進(jìn)一步理清了目前我國地方政府債務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀,依據(jù)財(cái)政部的統(tǒng)計(jì),至2013年年底我國地方政府債務(wù)總額為14萬億；重點(diǎn)分析了我國地方政府債務(wù)的成因,認(rèn)為主要從國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)體制、以及行政管理體制等考慮；統(tǒng)計(jì)了長沙、貴陽、沈陽、合肥、南昌和蘭州六個(gè)城市2010-2012年的政府直接債務(wù)和隱性債務(wù)的平面數(shù)據(jù),使用SPSS軟件作主成分分析,得出結(jié)論：如果地方政府需要嚴(yán)格控制增量,如果本年需要新增債務(wù)量,就必須考慮本年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速和收入增加量,而且在支出方面,單位支出需要償還的債務(wù)最好小于或等于單位支出所產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益；最后,提出防范我國地方政府債務(wù)的對(duì)策建議：明確地方政府的事權(quán)財(cái)權(quán)與市場邊界,進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)地方政府財(cái)源建設(shè),并且建立科學(xué)有效的債務(wù)償還的制度體系與管理機(jī)制,增加地方債務(wù)的透明度。
[Abstract]:The problem of local government debt in China is a hot spot of research in the current academic field, and it is also a difficult point. Local government debt has a great risk. The formation and harm of the huge debt problem in the United States is an obvious example. The government of the world focuses on the debt risk, hoping to get effective measurement methods and control mechanisms. To prevent and resolve the debt crisis, local government debt is a difficult problem to be thoroughly studied: on the one hand, the system and economic conditions of each country are not the same, the success of other countries is difficult to apply to the country, on the other hand, the economic system is complex and huge, and it is difficult to form a comprehensive and effective investigation. "A thousand miles" It begins with a lot of difficulties. This article is still based on data, in the framework of the commonly recognized or more interpretative debt risk indicators in China, to adjust and establish new debt risk indicators, to make an empirical analysis of local government debt, and to draw a general conclusion. In the history of finance, the establishment of fiscal decentralization theory is wealth. A breakthrough in political theory, under the guidance of this theory, governments of all countries take different levels of debt raising measures for the development of the economy, because the appropriate borrowing behavior in theory has a certain stimulating effect on the economic development, but because of the conditions, environment and policies of various countries and regions, many countries or regions have been in danger of debt. This is a typical Greek debt crisis.
Since the reform of the tax sharing system in 1994, the central government has collected most of the tax revenue, and the local government's income has been reduced. In order to meet the needs of local economic development, the local government has taken the debt measures, which makes the local government debt gradually accumulated, the debt problem is increasingly serious, the debt risk factor has gradually increased the financial crisis of.2008 years. In order to ensure the steady growth of economic growth rate and the increase of employment rate, the government has adopted a positive financial policy, which, to a certain extent, caused the demand pressure for the local government to a large amount of supporting funds, because many local governments have long outlay the financial revenues and the local infrastructure is not perfect. The government can only obtain funds from the way of borrowing to develop the economy, which makes the scale of local government debt expand rapidly in the short term. China has a vast territory, different environment, the history of the regions, customs are different, the economic development is not balanced, the special economic, political and cultural environment makes the local government debt in our country also present. With the different characteristics of other developed countries and emerging countries, we can not copy the economic policies and development models of western countries or other regions, and should study the problem of debt risk from the actual economic situation of local governments at all levels in our country. This paper first makes a definition of local government debt, and further clarifies the current local government debt in China. According to the statistics of the Ministry of finance, the total amount of local government debt in China is 14 trillion at the end of 2013. The cause of local government debt in China is analyzed. It is considered mainly from the national macroeconomic policy, the economic system, and the administrative management system, and the six cities of Changsha, Guiyang, Shenyang, Hefei, Nanchang and Lanzhou. The city's 2010-2012 year government direct and recessive debt plane data, using SPSS software as a principal component analysis, draws a conclusion that if local governments need to control the increment strictly, if the new debt is needed this year, it is necessary to consider the economic growth and income increase in this year, and in terms of expenditure, unit spending needs to be repaid. The debt should be less than or equal to the economic benefit produced by the unit expenditure. Finally, it puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the local government debt in China: to clarify the power and financial rights of local government and the market boundary, to further strengthen the construction of local government financial resources, and to establish a scientific and effective system and management mechanism of debt repayment, and increase the place of local government. The transparency of debt.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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