本文選題：尾部扭曲風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 極端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《系統(tǒng)管理學(xué)報(bào)》2017年05期

【摘要】：使用隨機(jī)波動(dòng)率模型修正滬深300股指期貨收益率序列的波動(dòng)聚集效應(yīng),并在殘差服從正態(tài)分布和極值分布的假設(shè)下,分別計(jì)算了度量尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的VaR、ES及尾部扭曲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測度(TDRM)值。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):股指期貨日收益率序列呈現(xiàn)負(fù)偏、尖峰厚尾及波動(dòng)聚集的形態(tài);使用隨機(jī)波動(dòng)率模型可以較好地預(yù)測波動(dòng)率的變化;假設(shè)殘差分布服從極值分布的模型結(jié)果優(yōu)于假設(shè)殘差分布服從正態(tài)分布的模型結(jié)果,說明極值模型在尾部分析上比正態(tài)分布更加適用;使用扭曲尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測度估計(jì)尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn),通過扭曲函數(shù)的選取與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡系數(shù)的不同設(shè)定,調(diào)整尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率,反映了投資者的主觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好,在相同置信水平下,得到的尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)值比VaR更精確。
[Abstract]:Using the stochastic volatility model to modify the volatility aggregation effect of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures return series, and under the assumption of normal distribution and extreme value distribution of residual service, the VaRNES and TDRM of tail risk are calculated respectively. It is found that the daily yield series of stock index futures show negative deviation, thick tail of peak and aggregation of volatility, and the random volatility model can better predict the change of volatility. The model result of assuming residual distribution from extreme value distribution is better than that of assuming residual distribution from normal distribution, which shows that extreme value model is more suitable for tail analysis than normal distribution, and use distorted tail risk measure to estimate tail risk. Through the selection of distortion function and the different setting of risk aversion coefficient, the probability of tail risk occurrence is adjusted to reflect the subjective risk preference of investors. Under the same confidence level, the estimated value of tail risk is more accurate than that of VaR.
【作者單位】： 大連理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)部;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71471026,71171032)
【分類號】：F224;F724.5

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