本文選題：外債 + 投資��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)震驚了全球，引發(fā)政界和學(xué)術(shù)界的高度關(guān)注，，外債問(wèn)題再次成為人們議論的焦點(diǎn)。它能產(chǎn)生如此大的反響不僅是因?yàn)闅W洲債務(wù)危機(jī)后果的嚴(yán)重性，更在于世界上絕大多數(shù)國(guó)家和地區(qū)都擁有外債。在這些地區(qū)中，快速崛起的新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家群體引起了我們的關(guān)注。在了解這方面的研究還相對(duì)匱乏之后，本文計(jì)劃研究外債對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)，以期得出有益的結(jié)果供其他后起國(guó)家借鑒。 在考察新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家外債現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況之后，本文基于哈羅德—多馬模型確定了實(shí)證研究的落腳點(diǎn)，即檢驗(yàn)外債對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家投資和儲(chǔ)蓄的效應(yīng)。運(yùn)用14個(gè)代表性新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家1995～2011年的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，本文構(gòu)建了面板數(shù)據(jù)模型并進(jìn)行回歸分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示外債對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家投資和儲(chǔ)蓄的效應(yīng)截然不同：一方面，外債能顯著地促進(jìn)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家國(guó)內(nèi)投資資本形成，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有較大正效應(yīng)；但另一方面，它會(huì)降低國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄率�；趯�(shí)證結(jié)論，之后本文考察了外債引用的一些成功和失敗實(shí)例，以解答在外債實(shí)際使用中出現(xiàn)不同結(jié)局的原因。通過(guò)對(duì)比分析，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)外債管理體制在外債使用中發(fā)揮著十分重要的作用，它的優(yōu)劣很大程度上決定了結(jié)果的好壞。最后，借鑒境外外債管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)本文針對(duì)我國(guó)外債管理的一些問(wèn)題提出了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the European debt crisis shocked the world and aroused great concern in the political and academic circles. The foreign debt problem has once again become the focus of discussion. It has such repercussions not only because of the severity of the consequences of Europe's debt crisis, but also because the vast majority of countries and regions in the world have foreign debt. In these regions, the rapidly rising group of emerging market countries has attracted our attention. After understanding that this research is still relatively scarce, this paper plans to study the economic effects of foreign debt on emerging market countries, in order to obtain useful results for other later countries to learn from. After examining the real situation of foreign debt of emerging market countries, this paper determines the foothold of empirical research based on Harrod-Domar model, which is to test the effect of foreign debt on investment and savings of emerging market countries. Based on the economic data of 14 representative emerging market countries from 1995 to 2011, this paper constructs a panel data model and carries out regression analysis. The empirical results show that the effects of foreign debt on investment and savings in emerging market countries are quite different: on the one hand, foreign debt can significantly promote the formation of domestic investment capital and promote economic development in emerging market countries, which has a great positive effect on the economy; On the other hand, it would lower the domestic savings rate. Based on the empirical results, this paper examines some examples of success and failure of foreign debt citation in order to explain the reasons for the different outcomes in the actual use of foreign debt. Through comparative analysis, it is found that the external debt management system plays a very important role in the use of foreign debt, and its merits and demerits largely determine the results. Finally, based on the experience of foreign debt management, this paper puts forward some suggestions on foreign debt management in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F811.5

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