本文選題：管理層盈余預(yù)測 + 分析師盈余預(yù)測��； 參考：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：管理層盈余預(yù)測和分析師盈余預(yù)測是投資者在預(yù)期公司盈利狀況、做出投資決策時(shí),非常重要的兩個信息來源。雖然關(guān)于管理層盈余預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性和分析師盈余預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性的研究有很多,但少有研究將兩者盈余預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性進(jìn)行對比。究竟投資者在什么情況下應(yīng)該相信管理層的盈余預(yù)測,又在什么情況下應(yīng)該更相信分析師的盈余預(yù)測呢? 本文以2009年至2012年滬深兩市所有A股上市公司披露的管理層年度盈余預(yù)測和與其相匹配的分析師盈余預(yù)測為樣本,檢驗(yàn)了管理層和分析師對每股盈余(EPS)預(yù)測的相對準(zhǔn)確性。本文的研究結(jié)論主要有以下兩點(diǎn)：第一,分析師在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)層面具有盈余預(yù)測優(yōu)勢。當(dāng)公司的業(yè)績受GDP、能源價(jià)格和利率等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響較大時(shí),分析師盈余預(yù)測比管理層盈余預(yù)測更準(zhǔn)確。第二,管理層在公司層面具有盈余預(yù)測優(yōu)勢。當(dāng)管理層應(yīng)對公司經(jīng)營異常情況(如存貨異常積壓、產(chǎn)能過�；蛘咛潛p)的措施,以及這個措施對公司收益產(chǎn)生的影響很難被外部人所預(yù)期時(shí),管理層盈余預(yù)測比分析師盈余預(yù)測更準(zhǔn)確。 本文的研究結(jié)論可以幫助投資者在不同的情況下,合理選擇相信管理層的盈余預(yù)測還是分析師的盈余預(yù)測,以形成自己對公司收益的預(yù)期并做出投資決策。
[Abstract]:Management earnings forecasts and analysts' earnings forecasts are two important sources of information for investors when they anticipate a company's earnings and make investment decisions.Although there has been a lot of research on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts and analysts' earnings forecasts, few studies have compared the accuracy of the two earnings forecasts.Under what circumstances should investors trust management earnings forecasts, and under what circumstances should analysts' earnings forecasts be more trusted?This paper examines the relative accuracy of the EPS-based earnings per share forecast of management and analysts based on the annual earnings forecasts and the corresponding analysts' earnings forecasts released by all A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2012.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, analysts have the advantage of earnings forecasting at the macroeconomic level.Analyst earnings forecasts are more accurate than management earnings forecasts when the company's results are strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as GDP, energy prices and interest rates.Second, management has the advantage of earnings forecasting at the corporate level.When management measures to deal with unusual operating conditions (such as inventory overstocking, overcapacity or losses), and the impact of this measure on the earnings of the company are difficult to anticipate by outsiders,Management earnings forecasts are more accurate than analysts' earnings forecasts.The conclusion of this paper can help investors to reasonably choose to believe the earnings forecast of management or the earnings forecast of analysts under different circumstances, in order to form their own expectation of company income and make investment decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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