本文選題：海外并購　切入點：并購風險　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：邁入二十世紀90年代以來,中國經(jīng)濟蓬勃發(fā)展。尤其是在加入WTO以后,我國的經(jīng)濟體系越來越開放,與多國的貿(mào)易往來積累了大量的外匯儲備。同時,我國的GDP增長率連續(xù)多年保持在8%以上,這對于國內(nèi)外的投資者而言相當具有吸引力,國際資本順勢紛紛涌入國內(nèi)。這些經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)資本過剩、人民幣升值、通貨膨脹嚴重。為了緩解這些經(jīng)濟問題,國家發(fā)展與改革委員會提出了“走出去”的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。這項戰(zhàn)略的目的在于鼓勵有能力進行海外投資的企業(yè)踏出國門進行海外投資。 在連續(xù)多年的海外投資實踐中,國內(nèi)企業(yè)的表現(xiàn)不盡人意。麥肯錫的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在過去的20年中,全球大型的企業(yè)并購案例取得成功的不到50%,而具體就中國企業(yè)海外投資情況而言,失敗率高達67%,商務(wù)部的統(tǒng)計更顯示,中國企業(yè)海外并購整合后,處于盈利和持平狀態(tài)的僅占約30%。 面對這種情況,我們不禁開始思考：是什么原因?qū)е潞Ｍ獠①彽氖÷嗜绱烁?海外并購究竟面臨哪些風險?如何控制這些風險、提高海外并購的成功率? 本文正是基于對這些問題的思考,從以下幾個方面著手進行研究： 第一部分導(dǎo)論主要闡述了本文的研究背景和研究意義,并說明了本文的創(chuàng)新之處和研究不足的方面。 第二部分文獻綜述,探討了國外和國內(nèi)對于海外并購理論的研究。具體從海外并購的動因、海外并購失敗的原因、海外并購風險的識別和分類、海外并購風險的控制措施幾個方面展開了討論。 第三部分為海外并購的概述。首先,闡述了并購、海外并購、并購風險的基本概念。其次,梳理了海外并購的理論基礎(chǔ)：規(guī)模經(jīng)濟理論、交易費用理論、效率理論、代理理論、風險管理理論。再次,對海外并購的動因進行了分析,由于并購的動因會影響并購的風險,因此本文對該部分內(nèi)容進行了探討。最后,通過國內(nèi)外的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),對我國海外并購的發(fā)展歷程和現(xiàn)狀進行了評價。 第四部分為文章的主體,采用了過程分析的方法,分析了海外并購從籌備到并購實施直至并購整合三個階段所面臨的并購風險。 第五部分為案例分析,本文選取了中國金融史上典型的海外并購失敗的案例——中國平安集團并購比利時富通集團的案例進行過程分析,分析平安在并購富通的各個階段所面臨的并購風險。 第六部分為總結(jié),通過前面幾個章節(jié)的理論探討與案例分析,總結(jié)中國企業(yè)在進行海外并購的過程中控制并購風險的具體措施。 本文在參考了前人的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,加上自己的分析總結(jié),主要貢獻如下：文章采用過程分析的方法,分析了海外并購從并購籌備到并購實施、整合三個階段的并購風險,同時采用案例分析法分析了中國金融史上最大的一次海外投資巨虧案即平安集團投資比利時富通集團的案例進行研究。得出了以如下結(jié)論： 企業(yè)進行海外并購所面臨的并購風險主要包括：并購前的決策風險、并購過程中的財務(wù)風險以及并購?fù)瓿梢院筮M行整合過程中所面臨的整合風險。所謂決策風險,主要指的是并購目標的選擇產(chǎn)生的風險。企業(yè)在進行并購目標選擇的時候,首先要符合企業(yè)的長遠發(fā)展目標,分析并購對象的經(jīng)營模式、發(fā)展趨勢是否與企業(yè)的長遠目標一致。并購中的財務(wù)風險所包括的內(nèi)容比較復(fù)雜,主要包括并購的估值風險、支付風險與融資風險。并購后的整合風險主要包括文化整合、人力整合、運營整合。為了控制這些風險,主要應(yīng)該從目標企業(yè)的選擇、融資支付方式的選擇、文化人力等幾個方面的整合入手。 由于本人的知識水平和研究能力有限,本文還存在以下不足：本文在對海外并購風險進行分析的時候,只是從定性的角度對可能存在的風險進行了理論分析。實證方面研究不夠,沒有采用大量的樣本數(shù)據(jù)來支撐所陳述的觀點,沒有建立創(chuàng)新的模型對海外并購風險進行定量分析,這是文章的一大不足。在以后的海外并購風險的分析中,如果能從建立一個風險評價體系著手對海外并購風險進行量化,將是一個重要的研究方向。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s , China ' s economy has been booming . Especially after China ' s accession to the WTO , our country ' s economic system has become more and more open , and China ' s GDP growth rate has accumulated a lot of foreign exchange reserves . At the same time , China ' s GDP growth rate has been more than 8 % for many years . At the same time , China ' s GDP growth rate has been pouring into the country for many years . In order to alleviate these economic problems , the National Development and Reform Commission has put forward the development strategy of " Going Global " . The purpose of this strategy is to encourage enterprises capable of overseas investment to invest in overseas investment .

In the practice of overseas investment for many years , domestic enterprises are underperforming . In the past 20 years , there are less than 50 % of global M & A cases , and in the case of overseas investment in Chinese enterprises , the failure rate is as high as 67 % , and the Ministry of Commerce ' s statistics show that after the integration of the overseas acquisitions of Chinese enterprises , only about 30 % of the profits and flat states are in the state .

In the face of this , we can ' t help start thinking : what causes the failure rate of overseas acquisitions to be so high ? What risks are overseas acquisitions ? How to control these risks and increase the success rate of overseas acquisitions ?

This article is based on the consideration of these questions , starting from the following aspects :

The first part introduces the research background and the research significance of this paper , and explains the innovation and lack of research in this paper .

According to the second part of literature review , the foreign and domestic research on overseas M & A theory is discussed . The reasons of overseas M & A , the reasons of overseas M & A failure , the recognition and classification of overseas M & A risks , and the control measures of overseas M & A risk are discussed .

The third part is an overview of overseas M & A . Firstly , the basic concepts of M & A , M & A and M & A are discussed . Secondly , the theoretical basis of overseas M & A is described . Secondly , the theories of M & A are analyzed .

The fourth part is divided into the main body of the article , the process analysis method is adopted , and the risk of M & A from preparation to merger and acquisition is analyzed .

The fifth part is the case analysis , this paper selects the case of the typical overseas M & A failure in China ' s financial history . The case of Ping An Group ' s merger and acquisition of Belgian Futong Group is analyzed , and the risk of M & A in the various stages of M & A is analyzed .

The sixth part is divided into the summary , through the theoretical discussion and case analysis of the previous chapters , summarizes the concrete measures to control the risk of M & A in the process of overseas M & A .

Based on the previous research results , combined with its own analysis and summary , this paper analyzes the risk of merger and acquisition from the preparation of M & A to the implementation of M & A and integrates the three phases . At the same time , the case analysis method is used to analyze the case study of the biggest one in the history of China ' s financial history , namely , Ping An Group ' s investment in Belgium Futong Group .

In order to control these risks , the risk of M & A is more complex , mainly including the valuation risk of M & A , the risk of payment and the risk of financing . In order to control these risks , the integration risk of M & A mainly includes the integration of cultural integration , human resources integration and operation integration . In order to control these risks , it is necessary to start with the integration of the choice of target enterprise , choice of financing payment method and culture human resources .

Because of the limited knowledge level and the research ability , this paper also has the following disadvantages : this paper analyzes the risk of overseas M & A in theory . The empirical research is not enough . There is not a lot of sample data to support the stated viewpoint . There is no innovation model to quantify the risk of overseas M & A . In the future , it is an important research direction to quantify the overseas M & A risk from the establishment of a risk evaluation system .

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F271

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