本文選題：政策市　切入點(diǎn)：量?jī)r(jià)關(guān)系　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的不斷發(fā)展壯大，對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響。股票價(jià)格的波動(dòng)性，無(wú)論是對(duì)投資者關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益的系統(tǒng)分析、市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管者的有效監(jiān)控、還是對(duì)于作為上市公司股東收益最大化的實(shí)現(xiàn)，都有著極其深遠(yuǎn)的意義。根據(jù)股市本身的波動(dòng)，來(lái)分析其深層次的原因，可以為廣大投資者投資、上市公司的日常生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)提供重要的參考依據(jù)。 本文側(cè)重研究的是我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、交易行為因素、信息披露因素之間的相互影響；首先對(duì)上述四個(gè)因素之間的相互作用進(jìn)行分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了應(yīng)對(duì)股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要策略，以及對(duì)未來(lái)的展望，并且有針對(duì)性的提出了一些切實(shí)可行的政策和建議。 從邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)上看，本文主要可以分為三部分： 第一部分主要分析了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，及其對(duì)我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響的作用機(jī)制；主要包括：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、宏觀政策因素和市場(chǎng)因素對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生的影響； 第二部分主要分析了交易行為因素，及其對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響的作用機(jī)制。主要包括：機(jī)構(gòu)投資者與中小投資者的投資行為特征對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生的影響； 第三部分主要分析了信息披露因素，及其對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響的作用機(jī)制。主要包括：股票市場(chǎng)信息與內(nèi)幕交易對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的影響； 在本文的研究過(guò)程中，主要使用了理論和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的分析方法，在研究的過(guò)程中還使用了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論和知識(shí)；在進(jìn)行了嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)难芯恐�，本文得到的結(jié)論總結(jié)如下： 1、隨著股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)和運(yùn)行機(jī)制的不斷優(yōu)化、擴(kuò)大和完善，宏觀政策與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)受到股票市場(chǎng)愈發(fā)深刻的影響。到那時(shí)，政府就將股票價(jià)格指數(shù)納入我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的輔助監(jiān)測(cè)指標(biāo)中來(lái)，并依據(jù)適度、合理的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格進(jìn)行調(diào)控。 2、我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的中小投資者，不僅存在自我催眠，，感情用事，啟發(fā)簡(jiǎn)化等行為方面的偏差，還存在對(duì)政府管理當(dāng)局高度不信任，盲從于專家，對(duì)市場(chǎng)存在過(guò)渡性恐慌的心里預(yù)期等具有中國(guó)特色的認(rèn)知上的偏差。與此同時(shí)，我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的中小投資者在心理上，存在著盲目自信與極度樂(lè)觀的誤區(qū)，他們?cè)谕顿Y活動(dòng)中，過(guò)分熱衷于打探有關(guān)股票的內(nèi)幕消息，不重視上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表和表面信息，而且，在對(duì)信息進(jìn)行快速篩選的時(shí)，他們總是熱衷于那些可以提高自我投資信心的信息，卻對(duì)負(fù)面消息采取視而不見(jiàn)的態(tài)度。 3、在研究我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的影響因素的過(guò)程中，主要通過(guò)研究了信息的披露和傳到機(jī)制，得出如下結(jié)論：對(duì)于我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，無(wú)論是在宏觀上看，還是在微觀上看，它的信息都存在提前泄露的可能性，這就使得信息的披露和傳到機(jī)制存在非常嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。由于公共信息不斷變得私有化，這就導(dǎo)致在股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了很多的內(nèi)幕交易，這些行為的存在使得我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格被嚴(yán)重的扭曲了，繼而使股票市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)異常的波動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's stock market, had a profound impact on the national economy. The volatility of stock price, both the analysis of investor system on the risks and benefits of effective monitoring of market regulators, or to achieve profit maximization as the shareholders of listed companies, has a very far-reaching significance. According to the fluctuation of the stock market itself, to analyze the deep-seated reasons, for the majority of investors, provide the important reference for the daily production and business activities of listed companies.
This paper focuses on the research of our country's stock market and macroeconomic factors, trading behavior factors, the mutual influence between information disclosure factors; the interaction between these four factors are analyzed, puts forward the main strategies to deal with the volatility of the stock price and the outlook for the future, and targeted put forward some feasible policies and suggestions.
From the logical structure, this paper can be divided into three parts:
The first part mainly analyzes the macroeconomic factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including macroeconomic factors, macro policy factors and market factors, and the impact on China's stock market.
The second part mainly analyzes the trading behavior factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market. It includes: the impact of institutional investors and small investors' investment behavior on China's stock market.
The third part mainly analyzes the information disclosure factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including: the influence of stock market information and insider trading on China's stock market volatility.
In the course of this study, we mainly use the theory and empirical analysis method. In the process of research, we also use econometrics theory and knowledge. After rigorous research, the conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:
1, with the stock market scale, optimize the structure and operation mechanism, expand and improve the macro policy and macro economy, will have more profound impact on the stock market. At that time, the government will be included in the stock price index, auxiliary monitoring indicators of China's macro economic policy to moderate and according to the stock price, regulation reasonable standard.
2, China's stock market investors, not only the existence of self hypnosis, emotional and other deviant behavior the simplified heuristic are highly, distrust of the government authorities, experts on the market blindly, there is panic expectation with transitional China characteristics of cognitive bias. At the same time, China's stock market the medium and small investors in the psychology, there are blind confidence and extremely optimistic misunderstanding, they in investment activities, insider news too keen to inquire about the stock, do not pay attention to the listed company's financial statements and surface information, and, in the rapid screening of information, they are always keen to those who can improve their investment the confidence of the information, but to turn a blind eye to negative news.
3, the influence factors in the process of China's stock market volatility, mainly through the research of information disclosure and spread mechanism, draws the following conclusion: for China's stock market, both in the macro perspective, or in the micro perspective, it has provided the possibility of information leak before this. The information disclosure and transmission mechanism, there are very serious problems. As the public information becomes increasingly privatized, it is causing a lot of insider trading in the stock market, the existence of these behavior makes our country's stock market prices has been seriously distorted, and the abnormal volatility of stock market.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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