本文選題：房地產(chǎn)股市　切入點(diǎn)：預(yù)警模型　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展規(guī)模漸漸壯大，同時(shí)扮演的角色越來(lái)越重要，，我們應(yīng)該高度重視和支持股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展。股票市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)行不穩(wěn)定，常常在高起低落間循環(huán)反復(fù)。在我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)中，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的股票市場(chǎng)份額很大，其運(yùn)行特征與股市大盤有著高度的相關(guān)性。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股票市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)行顯著地反映了整個(gè)股票市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)行特征，細(xì)小的變動(dòng)首先出現(xiàn)在房地產(chǎn)股票市場(chǎng)中，因此，本文對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股票市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)行進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警，得到預(yù)警狀態(tài)并提出對(duì)策建議。 首先，本文系統(tǒng)綜述了已有研究成果包括國(guó)內(nèi)外預(yù)警理論、預(yù)警模型。對(duì)當(dāng)前我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股票市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況和危機(jī)傳染機(jī)制進(jìn)行了分析�；陬A(yù)警理論研究和我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)股票市場(chǎng)所處大環(huán)境的現(xiàn)實(shí)考察，從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股市、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)三個(gè)方面選取11個(gè)預(yù)警指標(biāo)構(gòu)建了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股票市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)指標(biāo)體系。 其次，本文對(duì)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行因子分析，樣本數(shù)據(jù)為2006年1月至2013年8月，綜合評(píng)價(jià)近幾年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，得到4個(gè)主因子得分和綜合因子得分，以得分來(lái)確定預(yù)警閥值并將其轉(zhuǎn)化為向量形式作為預(yù)警模型的控制輸出。本文對(duì)原始變量建立BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，網(wǎng)絡(luò)為外推4期的預(yù)警模型，將2006年1月至2012年4月的數(shù)據(jù)作為網(wǎng)絡(luò)訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)集、2012年5月至2013年4月的數(shù)據(jù)作為網(wǎng)絡(luò)測(cè)試數(shù)據(jù)集、2013年5月至2013年8月的數(shù)據(jù)作為預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，網(wǎng)絡(luò)學(xué)習(xí)效果較好，模型通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)，預(yù)測(cè)了2013年9月至2013年12月的我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，并從監(jiān)管方、上市公司以及投資者三個(gè)方面提出防范和化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。 最后，筆者對(duì)本文所做的工作進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，并對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)股市預(yù)警方面的研究進(jìn)行了未來(lái)的展望。
[Abstract]:Along with the economic growth, the scale of the stock market in our country is gradually growing, and the role played by the stock market is becoming more and more important. We should attach great importance to and support the development of the stock market. The operation of the stock market is unstable. The cycle is often repeated between high and low. In our country's stock market, the real estate industry has a large share of the stock market. The operation characteristics of the real estate stock market are highly correlated with the stock market. The operation of the real estate stock market reflects the operating characteristics of the whole stock market, and the small changes first appear in the real estate stock market. In this paper, the operation of the real estate stock market is monitored and forewarned, and some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. First of all, this paper systematically summarizes the existing research results, including the domestic and foreign early warning theory, early warning model. This paper analyzes the real situation and crisis contagion mechanism of real estate stock market and real estate market. Based on the research of early warning theory and the reality investigation of the real estate stock market in our country, from the macro economy, real estate stock market, the real estate stock market, In this paper, 11 early warning indexes are selected from three aspects of real estate market to construct the monitoring index system of real estate stock market in China. Secondly, this article carries on the factor analysis to the early warning index system, the sample data is from January 2006 to August 2013, synthetically evaluates the risk situation in recent years, obtains four main factor scores and the comprehensive factor score. In this paper, the BP neural network model is established for the original variables, and the network is extrapolated for 4 periods of early warning model, and the threshold value is determined by the score and transformed into vector form as the control output of the early warning model. Using the data from January 2006 to April 2012 as the web-based training data set, the data from May 2012 to April 2013 as the network test data set, and the data from May 2013 to August 2013 as the forecast data, the e-learning results are better, Through the test, the model predicts the real estate market risk from September 2013 to December 2013, and puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent and resolve the risk from three aspects: the supervisor, the listed company and the investor. Finally, the author summarizes the work done in this paper, and looks forward to the future research on stock market forewarning of real estate industry in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.51

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 馬輝;中國(guó)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建與預(yù)警研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2009年

本文編號(hào)：1689713