本文選題：地方政府債券　切入點(diǎn)：市政債券　出處：《中共上海市委黨校》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)雖然尚未正式允許地方政府公開發(fā)行地方政府債券，但是已經(jīng)開始進(jìn)行試點(diǎn)。十八屆三中全會(huì)《中共中央關(guān)于全面深化改革若干重大問(wèn)題的決定》中明確指出，允許地方政府通過(guò)發(fā)債等多種方式拓寬城市建設(shè)融資渠道，可見中央政府已經(jīng)開始積極籌備發(fā)展地方政府債券。在此背景下，對(duì)地方政府債券進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范等安全性方面的研究顯得十分迫切，其中，安全發(fā)行規(guī)模是關(guān)鍵部分之一。 由于中國(guó)尚未開始發(fā)行真正意義上的地方政府債券，對(duì)于債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的研究無(wú)本國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可循，因此要確定中國(guó)地方政府債券的發(fā)行規(guī)模就需要借鑒國(guó)外地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。本文選取了三個(gè)具有代表性的國(guó)家：美國(guó)、日本和波蘭，進(jìn)行地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的分析。通過(guò)對(duì)這三個(gè)國(guó)家的地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)他們的地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模與政府債券總額、債券市場(chǎng)總規(guī)模、GDP、地方財(cái)政收入和總稅收等指標(biāo)存在一定的比例關(guān)系，即地方政府債券的發(fā)行規(guī)模占政府債券總規(guī)模的35%左右，占債券市場(chǎng)總規(guī)模的比重約7.5%，占當(dāng)年GDP的2.5%左右，占當(dāng)年地方財(cái)政收入的15%左右；地方政府債券余額占當(dāng)年GDP的比重保持在23.9%左右，占財(cái)政收入的120%左右；所有地方政府的債務(wù)限制在總稅收的60%等。本文將此類比例關(guān)系運(yùn)用至我國(guó)的地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的計(jì)算，其中，考慮到目前中美債券市場(chǎng)的差異性較大，美國(guó)的債券市場(chǎng)中企業(yè)債券和金融債券的交易相當(dāng)活躍，而目前在中國(guó)這些債券在債券市場(chǎng)中所占的比重很小，，因此本文認(rèn)為通過(guò)債券市場(chǎng)總規(guī)模來(lái)計(jì)算的指標(biāo)不具有參考意義，將其剔除。除了上述比例指標(biāo)外，本文還結(jié)合了國(guó)際上通用的發(fā)展中國(guó)家地方政府債務(wù)警戒標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)率和債務(wù)依存度。因此，本文根據(jù)以上具有代表性的國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)比例指標(biāo)和國(guó)際通用的警戒指標(biāo)計(jì)算出了一系列參考值，秉承審慎原則，在計(jì)算出的眾多參考值中選取較小的數(shù)值作為我國(guó)地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的參考依據(jù)，即中國(guó)2013年的地方政府債券發(fā)行總額應(yīng)在8362.68億元左右，地方政府債券余額應(yīng)在66298.2億元左右。據(jù)審計(jì)署公布的2013年審計(jì)報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2013年6月底，地方政府負(fù)有償還責(zé)任的債務(wù)有108859.17億元。顯然，我國(guó)現(xiàn)有的地方政府債務(wù)總量已遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)此處計(jì)算的地方政府債券理想規(guī)模，這說(shuō)明在宏觀總量上需要嚴(yán)格控制地方政府債務(wù)總規(guī)模。但這并不意味著要否定地方政府發(fā)行債券的可行性，因?yàn)槲覈?guó)各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r參差不齊，全國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)總量巨大并不代表每個(gè)地方政府都負(fù)債累累，對(duì)于一些財(cái)政運(yùn)行狀況良好的省市，例如上海，就應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮賦予其發(fā)行地方政府債券的權(quán)利，因此全國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)總量的控制與允許某些地區(qū)發(fā)行地方政府債券并不矛盾，并不能因?yàn)槿珖?guó)地方政府債務(wù)總量過(guò)大就否定所有地方政府發(fā)行債券的權(quán)利。因此本文認(rèn)為雖然全國(guó)地方債務(wù)總量較大，但是對(duì)于不同的省市需要區(qū)別對(duì)待，對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r較好的省市應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮賦予其發(fā)債權(quán)。 在宏觀上，通過(guò)上述指標(biāo)比例法來(lái)估算中國(guó)地方政府債券的安全發(fā)行規(guī)模，操作簡(jiǎn)便、直觀且易于判斷。在微觀上，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)還需要為各省市提供更加精確的測(cè)算方法來(lái)控制規(guī)模，輔助指標(biāo)比例法，完善中國(guó)地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的測(cè)算體系。本文起初意圖找到關(guān)于地方政府債券的數(shù)理模型來(lái)分析中國(guó)各省市的地方政府債券的發(fā)行規(guī)模，但是美國(guó)、日本等國(guó)家是根據(jù)他們各自往年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)逐漸摸索出適合他們自身的地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模，并沒(méi)有提出研究數(shù)理模型的需求，也就沒(méi)有現(xiàn)成的地方政府債券的數(shù)理模型可以借鑒。而我國(guó)如果開始發(fā)行真正意義上的地方政府債券，將是一個(gè)全新的探索，并沒(méi)有自身的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)可借鑒，便無(wú)法像美、日那樣根據(jù)往年經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷安全發(fā)行規(guī)模。當(dāng)下我國(guó)正處于探索地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的初始階段，需要借鑒一個(gè)科學(xué)可行的方法來(lái)估算安全規(guī)模保障地方政府債券初始階段的有效運(yùn)行，以便在此基礎(chǔ)上不斷調(diào)整改進(jìn)積累經(jīng)驗(yàn)，逐漸形成我國(guó)自身的一套管理和控制地方政府債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的體系。于是，本文又改變了思路，從信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度出發(fā)，發(fā)現(xiàn)可以借鑒和利用有關(guān)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量模型來(lái)精確量化各省市的地方政府債券的發(fā)行規(guī)模。于是，本文運(yùn)用了適當(dāng)改造后的KMV模型來(lái)研究地方政府債券的安全發(fā)行規(guī)模。并以上海市為例，運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法回歸預(yù)測(cè)出2013年的上海市的地方財(cái)政收入，確定地方財(cái)政收入的擔(dān)保比例，運(yùn)用上述改造后的KMV模型，得出2013年上海市地方政府債券發(fā)債規(guī)模在1356億元時(shí)，其違約率在0.4%之內(nèi)，是安全的。 最后本文提出了相關(guān)政策建議，即應(yīng)當(dāng)通過(guò)謹(jǐn)慎選擇發(fā)債主體、嚴(yán)格控制發(fā)債規(guī)模、建立公開透明的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告制度和信息披露制度、設(shè)立償債基金、建立地方政府債券擔(dān)保制度、完善與量化政府信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)制、建立地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警與控制系統(tǒng)等多個(gè)方面，來(lái)完善各項(xiàng)地方政府債券發(fā)行的運(yùn)行機(jī)制，以保障地方政府債券安全有效地運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:Although China has not yet formally to allow local governments to issue local government bonds to the public, but the practice has been carried out in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. "The CPC Central Committee on deepening reform of the overall number of major issues decision > clearly pointed out, to allow local governments to issue bonds through a variety of ways to broaden the financing channels of city construction, the central government has begun actively preparing for the development of local government bonds. Under this background, local government bonds on the security risk prevention is very urgent, the security issue size is one of the key parts.
Because China has not yet started offering the real meaning of local government bonds, the bond issuance experience of their own, so make sure the local government bonds Chinese requires foreign local government bond issuance experience. This paper selected three representative countries: the United States, Japan and Poland carries on the analysis, the local government bond issuance. Through the three countries, the local government bond issuance scale analysis, they found the local government bond issuance and the total amount of the bonds, the total size of the bond market, GDP, is a proportional relation index total tax of local fiscal revenue and the local government bonds the issuance of government bonds accounted for the total size of about 35%, proportion of the total size of the bond market is about 7.5%, accounting for about 2.5% of GDP, accounting for the local fiscal revenue Around 15%; local government bonds accounted for the proportion of GDP remained at about 23.9%, accounting for 120% of revenue; all local government debt limit in 60% of total tax revenue. This article will use the relationship between such proportion to China's local government bond issuance program, which, considering the difference the bond market is larger, the bond market in corporate bonds and financial bonds trading is very active, but in China these bonds in the bond market in the proportion is very small, so it could be calculated by the total size of the bond market index has no reference value, will be removed. In addition to the above proportion index in this paper, with the degree of dependence on international general developing countries local government debt warning standard -- debt burden and debt rate. Therefore, according to the above representative The experience of the national proportion index and international general warning indicators calculated a series of reference value, adhering to the principle of prudence, in a number of reference values calculated value selected smaller as our country's local government bonds issuing scale of reference, which is the amount of local government bonds issued Chinese in 2013 should be around 836 billion 268 million yuan, the local the balance of government bonds should be around 6 trillion and 629 billion 820 million yuan. According to the data released by the Audit Commission audit report in 2013 showed that as of the end of June 2013, the local government bears the responsibility to repay the debt of 10 trillion and 885 billion 917 million yuan. Obviously, the existing total local government debt in China has far exceeded the local government bonds here calculated ideal size, indicating a need to strictly control the total scale the local government debt in the macro aspect. But this does not mean to deny the feasibility of local government bonds, because each region of China by Economic development is uneven, the huge amount of local government debt does not mean that every local government debt, for some financial operation in good provinces, such as Shanghai, it should be given the right to issue local government bonds, so the total control of local government debt and allow some regions to issue local government bonds are not contradictory, and not because the total amount of the country's local government debt is too large to deny all local government bonds right. So this paper argues that although the total national debt is large, but for different provinces and cities need to be treated differently, for better economic development of the provinces and cities should be given the right to issuing bonds.
At the macro level, the security issue size, to estimate China local government bonds through the index proportion method is simple, intuitive and easy to judge. At the micro level, this paper found that also need to measure more accurate method to control the scale of the provinces, the proportion of Chinese auxiliary index method, improve the local government bond issuance estimation system at first. This paper intended to find a mathematical model about local government bonds of various provinces and cities Chinese local government bonds, but the United States, Japan and other countries are based on their previous experience and gradually worked out for their own local government bond issuance, and did not put forward the mathematical model of demand, there is no the mathematical model of local government bonds is available for reference. And if our country began to issue the real meaning of local government bonds, will be a full A new exploration, and no historical data itself can be used for reference, it can not be like the United States, Japan that based on past experience to judge the safety issue size. Now China is in the exploration of the local government bond issuance in the initial stage, needs to draw a scientific and feasible method to estimate the safe and efficient operation of local government bonds in the initial size of the protection the stage, on the basis of continuous adjustment and improvement of accumulated experience, and gradually formed our own set of management and control of the local government bond issuance system. So this paper has changed the idea of starting from the credit risk perspective, that can be used for reference and the credit risk quantitative model to accurately quantify the various provinces and cities the local government bonds. Thus, the safety issue of the size of this paper uses KMV model to study after the appropriate transformation of local government bonds. And above sea city An example, using econometric regression method predict the 2013 Shanghai local fiscal income, determine the local fiscal revenue guarantee proportion, using the KMV model of the transformation, the Shanghai city in 2013 local government bond issuance scale of 135 billion 600 million yuan, the default rate in 0.4%, is safe.
Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which should be carefully chosen by issuers, strictly control the scale of bonds, the establishment of an open and transparent financial reporting system and information disclosure system, the establishment of a sinking fund, the establishment of local government debt guarantee system, improve the government's credit rating mechanism and quantitative aspects, establish the system of local government debt risk early warning and control so, to improve the operating mechanism of the local government bonds, local government bonds in order to ensure the operation is safe and effective.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共上海市委黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F832.51

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 陳翊;關(guān)于我國(guó)發(fā)行地方政府債券的幾點(diǎn)思考[J];溫州大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2004年01期

2 李文沁;我國(guó)地方政府債券的制度設(shè)計(jì)[J];科技創(chuàng)業(yè)月刊;2004年05期

3 冉璐;發(fā)行地方政府債券的利弊分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)師;2004年08期

4 李文沁;發(fā)行中國(guó)地方政府債券芻議[J];北方經(jīng)貿(mào);2004年07期

5 王偉華;對(duì)發(fā)行地方政府債券的思考[J];華北航天工業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2004年02期

6 王軍,喻佑云,秦朝鈞;制度、倫理與地方政府債券——我國(guó)地方政府債券:一道沒(méi)有解的難題[J];特區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì);2004年11期

7 馬洪范;;地方政府債券及其替代品思辨[J];中國(guó)金融;2006年17期

8 馬紅漫;;中國(guó)開行地方政府債券的先決條件研究[J];特區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年02期

9 龍晉威;歐陽(yáng)寧波;;美國(guó)地方政府債券的發(fā)行實(shí)踐及其對(duì)我國(guó)的啟示[J];現(xiàn)代商業(yè);2007年16期

10 龍飛雪;;對(duì)我國(guó)發(fā)行地方政府債券的思考[J];南昌高專學(xué)報(bào);2007年05期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前3條

1 譚慶剛;戚萍;;天津市地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量和發(fā)債規(guī)模研究[A];科學(xué)發(fā)展·生態(tài)文明——天津市社會(huì)科學(xué)界第九屆學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)優(yōu)秀論文集（中）[C];2013年

2 周欣;劉鐘欽;;地方政府債券在建設(shè)社會(huì)主義新農(nóng)村中的作用[A];遼寧省農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì)2005年學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)征集論文集[C];2005年

3 顧巧明;;基于改進(jìn)的KMV模型的地方政府債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)度[A];轉(zhuǎn)型·創(chuàng)新·改革——上海市社會(huì)科學(xué)界第十屆學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)文集（2012年度）經(jīng)濟(jì)·管理學(xué)科卷[C];2012年

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前10條

1 孫瑞灼;發(fā)行地方政府債券須防“兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”[N];中國(guó)信息報(bào);2009年

2 孫瑞灼;警惕地方政府債券催生新“政績(jī)工程”[N];中華工商時(shí)報(bào);2009年

3 記者 黃艷;財(cái)政部代我區(qū)發(fā)行55億地方政府債券[N];新疆日?qǐng)?bào)(漢);2009年

4 本報(bào)記者 黃波;云南嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管地方政府債券資金[N];中國(guó)紀(jì)檢監(jiān)察報(bào);2010年

5 記者 董光榮　實(shí)習(xí)記者 高榮飛;省人大到我州視察地方政府債券資金安排使用情況[N];紅河日?qǐng)?bào);2010年

6 記者 張雪飛;促進(jìn)地方政府債券資金安排使用科學(xué)規(guī)范[N];云南日?qǐng)?bào);2011年

7 記者 王海燕;本市今年發(fā)地方政府債券71億[N];解放日?qǐng)?bào);2011年

8 ;河南省人大常委會(huì)關(guān)于批準(zhǔn)2012年 地方政府債券資金安排方案的決議[N];河南日?qǐng)?bào);2012年

9 記者 鄭薇 通訊員 陳曉偉;我市用足用活地方政府債券資金[N];徐州日?qǐng)?bào);2012年

10 記者 熊潤(rùn)頻;今年將發(fā)200億元地方政府債券[N];四川日?qǐng)?bào);2013年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 賀俊程;我國(guó)地方政府債券運(yùn)行機(jī)制研究[D];財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所;2013年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 韓艷華;我國(guó)地方政府債券研究[D];中共中央黨校;2010年

2 江依;我國(guó)地方政府債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究[D];廣東商學(xué)院;2010年

3 張麗莉;我國(guó)發(fā)行地方政府債券問(wèn)題研究[D];山東經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;2011年

4 趙麗容;我國(guó)地方政府債券法律問(wèn)題的研究[D];華南理工大學(xué);2011年

5 陳莉;關(guān)于我國(guó)地方政府債券發(fā)行的現(xiàn)狀、問(wèn)題與對(duì)策[D];東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

6 鄭芳媛;我國(guó)地方政府債券市場(chǎng)發(fā)展研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2011年

7 馬輝;我國(guó)地方政府債券的潛在問(wèn)題及對(duì)策[D];西南交通大學(xué);2011年

8 張瑞杰;論我國(guó)地方政府債券法律制度的構(gòu)建[D];華南理工大學(xué);2012年

9 孫維;當(dāng)前我國(guó)發(fā)行地方政府債券的模式選擇與制度設(shè)計(jì)[D];財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所;2012年

10 郭慧敏;我國(guó)發(fā)行地方政府債券問(wèn)題研究[D];河北師范大學(xué);2012年

本文編號(hào)：1677498