本文選題：Benford定律　切入點：會計信息失真度　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：會計信息的真實性是上市公司披露財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量要求之一,是維護正常市場秩序,保障健康投資環(huán)境的基礎(chǔ)要求。隨著我國新三板市場掛牌企業(yè)數(shù)量不斷增多,對于以證監(jiān)會為首的我國證券行業(yè)監(jiān)管層而言,面臨著監(jiān)管成本不斷加大,監(jiān)管難度逐漸增高的現(xiàn)實困境。出于各種原因,企業(yè)管理層可能由于自身利益的考量修改披露的會計信息,粉飾財務(wù)報表,從而影響披露會計信息的真實性。雖然注冊會計師審計一定程度上保證了上市公司披露財務(wù)信息的真實性,但在實務(wù)中,企業(yè)上市準備期間專門支付費用用作會計信息“處理”的現(xiàn)象依然客觀存在。站在新三板市場監(jiān)管者的角度,面對龐大的企業(yè)樣本,如何衡量其公布的財務(wù)信息的真實性、可靠性無疑具有重要實務(wù)意義。為了減少以證監(jiān)會為首的市場監(jiān)管層的監(jiān)管難度,實現(xiàn)以會計失真風(fēng)險為導(dǎo)向的會計信息監(jiān)管,本文意圖基于Benford定律建立新的會計失真度評價指標。一般而言,會計信息數(shù)據(jù)首位數(shù)字滿足Benford定律,但仍有三方面的要求,一是進行分布統(tǒng)計的信息數(shù)量級要保證足夠大,二是數(shù)據(jù)的分布范圍不能被人為限定,第三方面是數(shù)據(jù)不能被人為可以修改。為了對于新三板市場整體會計失真分布進行整體評價,本文利用數(shù)據(jù)滿足Benford定律分布的三方面的要求,探究了數(shù)據(jù)樣本量以及會計信息相關(guān)性所造成的數(shù)字范圍限定對于Benford定律分布的影響,分別從會計信息中選用排序指標與擬合指標。通過與排序指標不相關(guān)的擬合指標對于新三板所有上市企業(yè)的合適樣本進行Benford定律樣本分層擬合研究,同時根據(jù)排序指標對分層結(jié)果進行排序,以說明排序指標對于Benford定律擬合偏離度的影響,進一步說明新三板市場以排序指標排序情況下的會計失真度分布情況。在研究的過程中,本文分別探究了樣本量、財務(wù)指標相關(guān)性等因素對于利用Benford定律衡量我國新三板企業(yè)財務(wù)信息會計失真度的適用性影響。在研究中通過選取排序指標,并據(jù)此對于新三板上市企業(yè)進行排序后,再選用樣本企業(yè)與排序所用的指標不同的擬合指標進行Benford定律分布的擬合,從而排除信息數(shù)量級以及數(shù)據(jù)范圍限制對于擬合結(jié)果的影響。最終基于對樣本整體分層后擬合結(jié)果指標的變化情況,對新三板市場企業(yè)會計失真度分布情況進行整體描述,揭示了新三板企業(yè)會計信息失真度近似“M”型的整體走勢,并發(fā)現(xiàn)了在以凈利潤為排序指標的情況下,會計失真度會在凈利潤接近大的整數(shù)時出現(xiàn)上升的“整數(shù)門檻”現(xiàn)象。
[Abstract]:The authenticity of accounting information is one of the quality requirements for the disclosure of financial data by listed companies, as well as the basic requirement for maintaining normal market order and ensuring a healthy investment environment. For China's securities industry regulators headed by the Securities Regulatory Commission, they are facing a realistic dilemma of increasing regulatory costs and increasing difficulties in supervision. For various reasons, The management of the enterprise may modify the disclosed accounting information and whitewash the financial statements because of their own interests. This will affect the authenticity of disclosure of accounting information. Although CPA audit to some extent ensures the authenticity of disclosure of financial information by listed companies, but in practice, The phenomenon that enterprises pay fees as "processing" of accounting information during the period of preparation for listing still exists objectively. From the perspective of the new third board market regulator, facing the huge sample of enterprises, how to measure the authenticity of the financial information published by them, There is no doubt that reliability is of great practical significance. In order to reduce the difficulty of supervision in the market supervision layer headed by the CSRC, and to realize the accounting information supervision based on the risk of accounting distortion, This paper intends to establish a new accounting distortion evaluation index based on Benford's law. Generally speaking, the first number of accounting information data meets Benford's law, but there are still three requirements. Second, the distribution range of the data cannot be artificially limited, and the third aspect is that the data cannot be artificially modified. In order to evaluate the overall accounting distortion distribution in the new third Board market as a whole, In this paper, we use the data to meet the three requirements of the distribution of Benford's law, and probe into the effect of the digital range limitation caused by the data sample size and the correlation of accounting information on the distribution of Benford's law. The sorting index and fitting index are selected from the accounting information respectively. Through the fitting index which is not related to the ranking index, the suitable samples of all the listed enterprises on the new third board are studied by Benford law sample stratification fitting. At the same time, the hierarchical results are sorted according to the sorting index to illustrate the influence of the sort index on the deviation degree of Benford's law fitting. This paper further explains the distribution of accounting distortion in the new third board market in the order of ranking indicators. In the course of the research, this paper probes into the sample size, The correlation of financial indexes and other factors have influence on the applicability of the Benford law to measure the financial information accounting distortion of the new three boards in China. In the study, the ranking index is selected, and the listed enterprises of the new three boards are sorted accordingly. Then choose the fitting index which is different between the sample enterprise and the sorting index to fit the distribution of Benford's law. Finally, based on the variation of the fitting result index after the sample is stratified, the distribution of accounting distortion in the new third board market is described as a whole, and the influence of the order of information and the limitation of the data range on the fitting result is eliminated. This paper reveals the whole trend of accounting information distortion of new three board enterprises, which is similar to "M" type, and finds out that when the net profit is taken as the ranking index, the accounting distortion will appear the phenomenon of "integer threshold" rising when the net profit is close to the large integer.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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