本文關(guān)鍵詞： 國際石油價格 A股市場價格 長期均衡 因果關(guān)系　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文首先梳理相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn),在回顧現(xiàn)有的相關(guān)國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)時,發(fā)現(xiàn)國外學(xué)者基本達(dá)成國際石油價格上漲會帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的結(jié)論,他們通過選擇不同的樣本類型和指標(biāo)、運(yùn)用不同的模型進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)在國際石油價格上漲時將給宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來負(fù)面的影響。一些持反對意見的學(xué)者提出觀點(diǎn),貨幣政策的變動應(yīng)該為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)受到的負(fù)面影響負(fù)有更多的責(zé)任,而不是石油價格的上漲。換句話說,國際石油價格不會對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生直接的影響,而是通過影響貨幣政策來間接實(shí)現(xiàn)對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊,也就是說兩者之間還是存在聯(lián)系的。但是在研究國際石油價格對股票市場的影響時,國外學(xué)者主要還是通過選擇不同類型的樣本和指標(biāo)、運(yùn)用不同的模型進(jìn)行研究,在研究結(jié)論上,也存在較大的爭議,主要是因?yàn)椴煌男袠I(yè)、不同的國家、不同的時間段所得出的結(jié)果都會有所差異。然而現(xiàn)有的國內(nèi)研究相對滯后,沒有從理論上說明國際石油價格對股票市場影響的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,將理論分析與實(shí)證分析進(jìn)行結(jié)合,在數(shù)據(jù)和變量的選擇上,更多的是通過選擇各個行業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)、股改前后的數(shù)據(jù),一方面,變量覆蓋的范圍比較有限,不能很好的代表我國的股票市場；另一方面,比較的是股改前后的差異,而沒有很好的比較在股改完成以后,我國股市在極端變化時期和相對平緩時期對國際石油價格反應(yīng)的差異。 在考慮到現(xiàn)有國內(nèi)研究的這些不足,借鑒國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究思路和方法的基礎(chǔ)上,本文選擇中證全指代表我國A股市場價格,相比較而言,覆蓋面更廣,更具有代表性；并且將理論分析與實(shí)證分析進(jìn)行結(jié)合。本文以國際石油價格對我國A股市場價格的影響作為研究對象,首先分析了國際石油市場和我國股票市場的運(yùn)行特征,為后續(xù)的理論和實(shí)證分析、政策建議做鋪墊。關(guān)于這部分的內(nèi)容主要包括國際石油價格波動的歷史回顧,以及國際石油市場的運(yùn)行特征,然后從歷史的角度,了解我國股票市場的發(fā)展歷程,以及在運(yùn)行中的一些特征。然而,我國股票市場起步比較晚,雖然在法律法規(guī)、制度建設(shè)、經(jīng)營管理等方面已逐漸完善,但是與西方成熟的股票市場相比,還處于比較稚嫩的時期,所以國際石油價格對我國股票市場的影響是否也如一般理論上而言,還有待于去驗(yàn)證,這對了解我國股票市場的運(yùn)行特征和完善我國股票市場發(fā)展有著重要的意義。 接下來,先從理論上分析了國際石油價格基于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)路徑和金融市場聯(lián)動路徑對股票市場產(chǎn)生影響,并且這種影響有存在的合理性,之后從實(shí)證上檢驗(yàn)國際石油價格對我國A股市場價格的影響是否如一般理論上而言,通過運(yùn)用一系列的時間序列分析方法進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)國際石油價格對我國A股市場價格的影響并不如一般理論上而言,可能受我國股票市場行政化程度較高、股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)有缺陷、投機(jī)性和莊家性、股價與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)相背離等特征的影響,表明我國股票市場與西方成熟股票市場相比還有很大的差異,還需要進(jìn)一步的完善。最后,根據(jù)全文的分析得出了本文的研究結(jié)論,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出一些完善我國股票市場的政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper first reviews the relevant literature, after reviewing the related literature at home and abroad existing, found that foreign scholars basically reached the international oil price rise will bring about a recession conclusions, they can choose different types of samples and indexes, using different models, the results found that the rise in international oil prices will adversely affect the macro economy. Some opposition scholars put forward viewpoint, responsible for more negative effects of monetary policy changes should be subject to the macro economic, rather than oil prices. In other words, the international oil price will not have a direct impact on the macro economy, but by the impact of monetary policy indirectly realized on macro economy the impact that there is a link between the two. But the impact on the stock market in the study of international oil prices, Chinese and foreign scholars Mainly through the choice of different types of samples and indexes, using different models to study, in conclusion, there is a big controversy, mainly because of different industries, different countries, different time of the results will be different. However, the existing domestic research is relatively backward, no conduction mechanism of the influence of international oil prices on the stock market in theory, the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis are combined in the data and the choice of variables, more by selecting the various sectors of the data, the data before and after the share reform, on the one hand, the range variable coverage is limited, can not represent good stock market in China; on the other hand, compare the difference before and after the reform, but not very good in comparison with the completion of the reform, China's stock market in the extreme period of change and the relatively flat period on the international oil Difference in price reaction.
In consideration of the existing domestic research these problems, based on ideas and methods by scholars at home and abroad, this paper choose the card represents the price of A shares in Chinese stock market that, in comparison, broader coverage, more representative; and the theoretical analysis combined with empirical analysis based on the international. Effect of oil price on the price of A shares in Chinese stock market as the research object, firstly analyzes the international oil market and the stock market of our country for the subsequent analysis of the operation characteristics of the theoretical and empirical analysis, policy recommendations to pave the way. This part mainly reviews the history of the international petroleum price fluctuation, and the operating characteristics of international oil in the market, and then from a historical perspective, to understand the development history of China's stock market, as well as some of the characteristics in the operation. However, the stock market in China started relatively late, although in the law system. The construction, management and other aspects have been gradually improved, but compared with the western mature stock market, is still in the immature period, so the impact of international oil prices on China's stock market is also such as general theory, has yet to be verified, which is to understand the operating characteristics of the stock market of our country and has a the important significance of improving China's stock market development.
Next, the first from the theoretical analysis of the international oil price based on the path of the real economy and financial market linkage path has impact on the stock market, and this effect has the rationality of existence, from the empirical test of international oil prices on the price impact of China A stock market as the general theory, through the use of a series of time series the analysis of research methods, results showed that international oil prices affect the price of A stock market in China is not as good as the general theory, may be affected by the degree of China's administrative stock market higher, equity structure has defects, and speculative makers, stock prices and macroeconomic deviate from the characteristics, show that China's stock the market and western mature stock market there is a big difference, need to be further improved. Finally, according to the analysis in this paper, the research conclusion of this thesis, this On the basis of this, some policies and suggestions to improve the stock market in China are put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F416.22

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本文編號：1527294