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基于KMV模型的我國(guó)中小板上市公司信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-02-22 21:17

  本文關(guān)鍵詞: KMV模型 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 中小板上市企業(yè) 出處:《沈陽(yáng)理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:當(dāng)前形勢(shì)下,世界各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)的表現(xiàn)普遍疲軟,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正處在危機(jī)后的調(diào)整期。這也使當(dāng)前國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來發(fā)展前景整體難以預(yù)測(cè)和把握;國(guó)內(nèi)原有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力優(yōu)勢(shì)、增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力逐漸削弱,新優(yōu)勢(shì)尚未形成,市場(chǎng)信心和預(yù)期不穩(wěn),經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行處在尋求新平衡的過程中。 債務(wù)危機(jī)和信貸危機(jī)將在中國(guó)大面積的出現(xiàn),加上西方特別是歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)的低迷,對(duì)中國(guó)手上的外匯和外國(guó)債券都造成了大面積的縮水沖擊,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也持續(xù)低迷,處于危機(jī)中的我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行和其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)面臨較為嚴(yán)重的打擊。 我國(guó)的中小企業(yè)提供了60%的GDP,90%的就業(yè),這個(gè)群體在推動(dòng)全中國(guó),全世界的商業(yè)文明進(jìn)步。然而,勞動(dòng)力成本不斷提升,融資依然很困難,融不到錢,借不到錢的現(xiàn)象依然十分普遍,如何去幫助中小企業(yè)更好更快成長(zhǎng),有沒有什么好的辦法、策略和政策,這是我國(guó)面臨的重大問題。中小企業(yè)是推動(dòng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,構(gòu)造市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)主體,促進(jìn)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)力量。特別是當(dāng)前,在確保國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)適度增長(zhǎng)、緩解就業(yè)壓力、實(shí)現(xiàn)科教興國(guó)、優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面,均發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。為此,我國(guó)已經(jīng)對(duì)中小企業(yè)的發(fā)展扶持,特別是小企業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)指導(dǎo)當(dāng)成一項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略任務(wù)來抓。 然而,由于中小企業(yè)具有公司治理薄弱、財(cái)務(wù)管理不夠健全、抵質(zhì)押品不足等特點(diǎn),中小企業(yè)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高,再加上中小企業(yè)授信規(guī)模小,融資成本高,中小企業(yè)貸款一直是銀行,貸款緊縮的背景下,銀行貸款的門檻也越來越高。 本研究以我國(guó)中小型上市公司板塊需要加強(qiáng)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的實(shí)際情況為工作抓手,以通過KMV模型對(duì)中小型上市公司板塊實(shí)施信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)量的方法,以對(duì)中小型企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效合理評(píng)估為目的,為銀行及金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供相應(yīng)的決策依據(jù),改變目前中小企業(yè)融資難的狀況,,促進(jìn)中小企業(yè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the current situation, the performance of the world's major economic powers is generally weak, and the global economy is in a period of adjustment after the crisis. This also makes it difficult to predict and grasp the overall future development prospects of the current international economy. Growth momentum is weakening, new advantages have not been formed, market confidence and expectations are unstable, and the economy is in the process of seeking new balance. The emergence of the debt crisis and the credit crisis in a large area in China, coupled with the economic downturn in the West, especially in the euro zone, has caused a massive shrinkage impact on China's foreign exchange and foreign bonds, and the real estate market has also continued to be depressed. China's commercial banks and other financial institutions in the crisis are facing a more serious blow. Small and medium-sized enterprises in China provide 90% of GDP employment, and this group is driving the progress of business civilization throughout China and around the world. However, with the rising labor costs, financing is still very difficult, unable to raise money. The phenomenon of not being able to borrow money is still very common. How to help small and medium-sized enterprises grow better and faster, and whether there are any good ways, strategies and policies, this is a major problem facing our country. Small and medium-sized enterprises are promoting the development of the national economy. To construct the main body of the market economy and to promote social stability, especially at present, in ensuring the moderate growth of the national economy, alleviating the employment pressure, realizing the rejuvenation of the country through science and education, and optimizing the economic structure, etc. Therefore, our country has been supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially the industrial upgrading of small enterprises as a strategic task. However, because SMEs have the characteristics of weak corporate governance, inadequate financial management, insufficient collateral, and so on, the credit risk of SMEs is high, and the scale of SME credit is small, and the financing costs are high. Small and medium-sized enterprises loan is bank all the time, the background that loan is tight, the doorsill of bank loan is also higher and higher. This research takes the actual situation that the small and medium-sized listed companies need to strengthen the credit risk management as the work, in order to carry out the credit risk measurement method through the KMV model to the small and medium-sized listed companies' plate. In order to evaluate the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises effectively and reasonably, this paper provides the corresponding decision basis for banks and financial institutions, changes the current situation of financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and promotes the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:沈陽(yáng)理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F272.3;F832.51;F224

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 馬一丹;程宗毛;倪珊;盛慧蓉;;時(shí)間序列分析在債券交易價(jià)格波動(dòng)中的應(yīng)用[J];中國(guó)證券期貨;2013年07期



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