本文關(guān)鍵詞： 股票價(jià)值 F-O模型 會(huì)計(jì)信息 超常盈余　出處：《長(zhǎng)春工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1978年至1992年,改革開(kāi)放后,中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌的背景下萌生,預(yù)示著我國(guó)股票的開(kāi)始。在這之后的二十幾年內(nèi),股票的發(fā)展成畸形狀態(tài)。幾乎所有投資者對(duì)股票的買賣持著很隨意的態(tài)度,他們只是跟隨內(nèi)幕消息來(lái)決定股票的買賣。這種現(xiàn)象導(dǎo)致了股票市場(chǎng)存在著巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和明顯的弊端。同時(shí),借著主流媒介肆無(wú)忌憚的宣傳,使得越來(lái)越多的投資者認(rèn)為只有跟隨莊家,購(gòu)買的股票才會(huì)盈利。正是如此,使得投資者只熱衷于短期投資和中性投資,并且投資的股票多數(shù)選擇高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高收益的種類,然而,得到的結(jié)果卻事與愿違。 基于以上現(xiàn)狀,越來(lái)越多的投資者,這其中不乏一些機(jī)構(gòu)投資者和廣大的散戶,開(kāi)始從國(guó)外入手,尋找正確的投資理念。其中有一種投資理念—價(jià)值投資,主要思想側(cè)重于合理的對(duì)股權(quán)價(jià)值進(jìn)行評(píng)估,目的是為了使投資者理性的投資。國(guó)外對(duì)這一股權(quán)估值理論以及模型的研究經(jīng)歷了兩個(gè)階段,第一個(gè)階段是以股利為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行研究,第二個(gè)階段是以會(huì)計(jì)收益為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行研究,這一研究方法是ohlson在1990年時(shí)提出,現(xiàn)以成為決定股權(quán)價(jià)值的標(biāo)志內(nèi)容。在ohlson的剩余收益模型的基礎(chǔ)上,由Feltham和ohlson共同完成了更完善的股權(quán)估值模型,即F-O模型,這一模型如今已經(jīng)成為研究股權(quán)估值理論和模型的主流之一。 隨著越來(lái)越多的學(xué)者對(duì)F-O模型的關(guān)注,從中也發(fā)現(xiàn)了模型的一些問(wèn)題,但都沒(méi)有具體的修正措施。筆者通過(guò)對(duì)F-O模型的細(xì)致研究,找出可以完善該模型的兩個(gè)方面,然后對(duì)F-O模型進(jìn)行修正并借助我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)(本文指隨機(jī)選取的農(nóng)林牧漁行業(yè)的54只股票的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)),對(duì)這一類行業(yè)進(jìn)行估價(jià),期望能給廣大的投資者在“價(jià)值投資”理念和投資方法上提供一個(gè)借鑒,以拋己之磚,引他之玉。
[Abstract]:From 1978 to 1992, after the reform and opening up, China's securities market sprouted under the background of China's economic transition, indicating the beginning of China's stock market. In the 20 years since then, The development of stocks has become abnormal. Almost all investors have a very casual attitude towards the trading of stocks. They just follow inside information to determine the stock market. This phenomenon leads to huge risks and obvious drawbacks in the stock market. At the same time, they use the mainstream media to propagate unscrupulously. It makes more and more investors think that they can only make a profit by following the bookmaker. That's why investors are only interested in short-term and neutral investments, and most of the stocks they invest in are in high-risk, high-yield categories, however, The results turned out to be counterproductive. Based on the above situation, more and more investors, including some institutional investors and the vast number of retail investors, began to look for the right investment concept from abroad. The main idea is to evaluate the equity value reasonably, in order to make investors invest rationally. The research on the theory and model of equity valuation has gone through two stages. The first stage is based on dividend, the second stage is based on accounting income. This research method is proposed by ohlson in 1990. On the basis of ohlson's residual income model, a more perfect equity valuation model, F-O model, is developed by Feltham and ohlson. This model has become one of the mainstream research theories and models of equity valuation. As more and more scholars pay more and more attention to the F-O model, some problems of the model are also found, but there are no specific correction measures. Through the careful study of the F-O model, the author finds out two aspects of the model that can be perfected. Then the F-O model is revised and evaluated with the financial data of the listed companies in China (this paper refers to the financial data of 54 stocks selected randomly in agriculture, forestry, herding and fishery industries). It is expected to provide a reference to the investors in the concept and method of "value investment", so as to throw away their own bricks and attract their jade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)春工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F830.42

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 孫愛(ài)軍,陳小悅;關(guān)于會(huì)計(jì)盈余的信息含量的研究——兼論中國(guó)股市的利潤(rùn)驅(qū)動(dòng)特性[J];北京大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2002年01期

2 歐陽(yáng)勵(lì)勵(lì);;會(huì)計(jì)信息與股票價(jià)格關(guān)系分析[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊(學(xué)術(shù)版);2007年07期

3 靳云匯,李學(xué);中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)半強(qiáng)態(tài)有效性檢驗(yàn)——買殼上市分析[J];金融研究;2000年01期

4 錢愛(ài)民;張新民;;新準(zhǔn)則下利潤(rùn)結(jié)構(gòu)質(zhì)量分析體系的重構(gòu)[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2008年06期

5 孔寧寧;張新民;李寅迎;;成長(zhǎng)型公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析與股票未來(lái)收益——來(lái)自中國(guó)上市公司的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2010年06期

6 張玲;吳波;黨金磊;;上市公司會(huì)計(jì)信息失真可能性評(píng)估研究——基于滬深兩市年報(bào)審計(jì)意見(jiàn)[J];審計(jì)研究;2006年01期

7 張春雷;;關(guān)于儲(chǔ)蓄存款同比增長(zhǎng)率與股票需求關(guān)系的思考[J];中國(guó)證券期貨;2011年11期

8 魏明海;雷倩華;;公司治理與股票流動(dòng)性[J];中山大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2011年06期

，

本文編號(hào)：1509098