本文關(guān)鍵詞： 賣空限制 鼓勵(lì)交易動(dòng)機(jī) 盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差 證券分析師　出處：《財(cái)經(jīng)研究》2017年07期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：證券分析師是否會(huì)為了商業(yè)性目的而犧牲專業(yè)性?文章利用融資融券制度檢驗(yàn)了鼓勵(lì)交易動(dòng)機(jī)是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致分析師有意提供偏頗的股票分析報(bào)告。賣空交易使股票在下跌過程中也能增加交易傭金,促使證券分析師給出更加客觀的盈余預(yù)測(cè)。文章采用經(jīng)過股票價(jià)格調(diào)整的盈余預(yù)測(cè)誤差絕對(duì)值,作為分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差的度量指標(biāo),發(fā)現(xiàn)相對(duì)于存在賣空限制的股票,分析師對(duì)融資融券標(biāo)的股票的短期盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差降低了約0.014,長(zhǎng)期盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差降低了約0.019,但平均月度換手率上升了約10.9%。公司業(yè)績(jī)和盈余預(yù)測(cè)難度的變化不能解釋這一現(xiàn)象。文章研究表明,鼓勵(lì)交易動(dòng)機(jī)會(huì)使分析師發(fā)布更加樂觀的盈余預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告,而允許賣空有助于矯正這種商業(yè)性動(dòng)機(jī),增強(qiáng)分析師的專業(yè)性。
[Abstract]:Will securities analysts sacrifice their professionalism for commercial purposes? The paper uses margin and margin system to test whether encouraging trading motivation will lead analysts to provide biased stock analysis report. Short selling can also increase the transaction commission in the process of falling stock. This paper adopts the absolute value of earnings forecast error adjusted by stock price as the measure of the deviation of earnings forecast. It is found that relative to the stocks with short selling restriction, the short-term earnings forecast deviation of the stocks with margin margin is reduced by about 0.014, and the long-term earnings forecast deviation is reduced by about 0.019. However, the average monthly turnover rate has risen by about 10.9%. The change in company performance and earnings forecasting difficulty cannot explain this phenomenon. Encouraging trading incentives would lead analysts to release more optimistic earnings forecasts, while allowing short selling would help correct this commercial motivation and increase analysts' professionalism.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71302074) 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)支持計(jì)劃的資助
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51
【正文快照】： 一、引言2017年2月10日,在全國證券期貨監(jiān)管工作會(huì)上,中國證監(jiān)會(huì)主席劉士余怒斥股市黑嘴“語不驚人死不休”。為什么存在股市黑嘴?一個(gè)重要因素是經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)的驅(qū)使。無論是在國內(nèi)還是國外,為了能夠帶來更多的交易,證券公司通常將證券分析師的報(bào)酬與傭金收入聯(lián)系起來(Cowen等,200

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