本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方政府債務(wù) 債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系 預(yù)警模型　出處：《重慶理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來，希臘、冰島、迪拜等西方國家紛紛陷入主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)受到負(fù)面影響。越來越多的國家政府意識(shí)到：舉債一方面可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，另一方面不適當(dāng)?shù)呐e債行為有可能加劇地方政府償債負(fù)擔(dān)，甚至引發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)。轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期，我國地方政府在推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面承擔(dān)了很大責(zé)任，但是由于地方政府財(cái)權(quán)和事權(quán)的不匹配導(dǎo)致地方政府通過舉債的方式來彌補(bǔ)財(cái)力的缺口。當(dāng)前我國地方政府缺乏健全的債務(wù)管理制度與機(jī)制，對(duì)一些不規(guī)范的舉債行為缺乏有力的監(jiān)管，導(dǎo)致地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日趨突顯。要想防范和化解債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，必須正視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，加強(qiáng)政府債務(wù)監(jiān)管，，加強(qiáng)預(yù)警，有效控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，研究地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)警具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文借鑒國內(nèi)外地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系的研究成果，采用文獻(xiàn)研究與案例分析等相結(jié)合的研究方法，結(jié)合H市政府的具體情況，構(gòu)建適合H市政府的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)判法構(gòu)建了H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容有：第一部分是緒論；第二部分是地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系的相關(guān)理論，介紹了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警理論和地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系的研究；第三部分介紹H市政府債務(wù)概況，包括H市政府債務(wù)的基本情況，當(dāng)前債務(wù)存在的問題以及債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因；第四部分介紹H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建，根據(jù)指標(biāo)優(yōu)選率統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果遴選出具有代表性的預(yù)警指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系；第五部分介紹H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建，以構(gòu)建的預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系為依據(jù)，運(yùn)用逐級(jí)多次模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法的原理建立債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型，并加以分析；第六部分提出H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的對(duì)策及建議。 本文以H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為研究對(duì)象，深入分析了H市政府債務(wù)存在的問題，并以H市政府債務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建H市政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型，對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警具有較好的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Greece, Iceland, Dubai and other Western countries have been plunged into sovereign debt crisis, and their economies have been adversely affected. More and more governments realize that borrowing can promote economic development on the one hand. On the other hand, improper borrowing behavior may aggravate the debt burden of local governments and even lead to debt crisis. During the transitional period, local governments in our country have assumed a great responsibility in promoting sustainable economic and social development. However, due to the mismatch between local government financial power and power, local governments through the way of debt to make up for the gap in financial resources. At present, our local governments lack a sound debt management system and mechanism. In order to prevent and resolve the debt risk, we must face the risk, strengthen the supervision of government debt, and strengthen the early warning. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the early warning of local government debt risk. This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign local government debt risk early warning index system research results, uses the literature research and the case analysis and so on unifies the research method, unifies the H municipal government's concrete situation. The debt risk early warning index system suitable for H city government is constructed, and the early warning model of H city government debt risk is constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first part is the introduction; The second part is the local government debt risk early warning system related theory, introduced the local government debt risk early warning theory and the local government debt risk early warning system research; The third part introduces the general situation of H municipal government debt, including the basic situation of H municipal government debt, the current debt problems and the causes of debt risk; Part 4th introduces the construction of debt risk early warning index system of H municipal government, selects representative early warning index according to the statistical results of index selection rate, and constructs H city government debt risk early warning index system. Part 5th introduces the construction of debt risk early-warning model of H municipal government. Based on the established early-warning index system, the debt risk early-warning model is established and analyzed by using the principle of successive fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Part 6th puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of H-municipal government debt risk warning. This paper takes H municipal government debt risk as the research object, deeply analyzes the problems existing in H municipal government debt, and based on H municipal government debt economic data. The construction of H municipal debt risk early warning index system and risk early warning model has good reference value for local government debt risk early warning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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