本文關鍵詞： 地方政府債務 債務風險 預警指標體系 預警模型　出處：《重慶理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來，希臘、冰島、迪拜等西方國家紛紛陷入主權債務危機，經(jīng)濟受到負面影響。越來越多的國家政府意識到：舉債一方面可以促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，另一方面不適當?shù)呐e債行為有可能加劇地方政府償債負擔，甚至引發(fā)債務危機。轉(zhuǎn)軌時期，我國地方政府在推動經(jīng)濟社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面承擔了很大責任，但是由于地方政府財權和事權的不匹配導致地方政府通過舉債的方式來彌補財力的缺口。當前我國地方政府缺乏健全的債務管理制度與機制，對一些不規(guī)范的舉債行為缺乏有力的監(jiān)管，導致地方政府債務風險日趨突顯。要想防范和化解債務風險，必須正視風險，加強政府債務監(jiān)管，，加強預警，有效控制風險。因此，研究地方政府債務風險的預警具有現(xiàn)實意義。 本文借鑒國內(nèi)外地方政府債務風險預警指標體系的研究成果，采用文獻研究與案例分析等相結(jié)合的研究方法，結(jié)合H市政府的具體情況，構(gòu)建適合H市政府的債務風險預警指標體系，并運用模糊綜合評判法構(gòu)建了H市政府債務風險預警模型。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容有：第一部分是緒論；第二部分是地方政府債務風險預警體系的相關理論，介紹了地方政府債務風險預警理論和地方政府債務風險預警體系的研究；第三部分介紹H市政府債務概況，包括H市政府債務的基本情況，當前債務存在的問題以及債務風險的成因；第四部分介紹H市政府債務風險預警指標體系的構(gòu)建，根據(jù)指標優(yōu)選率統(tǒng)計結(jié)果遴選出具有代表性的預警指標，構(gòu)建H市政府債務風險預警指標體系；第五部分介紹H市政府債務風險預警模型的構(gòu)建，以構(gòu)建的預警指標體系為依據(jù)，運用逐級多次模糊綜合評價法的原理建立債務風險預警模型，并加以分析；第六部分提出H市政府債務風險預警的對策及建議。 本文以H市政府債務風險為研究對象，深入分析了H市政府債務存在的問題，并以H市政府債務經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為基礎，構(gòu)建H市政府債務風險預警指標體系和風險預警模型，對地方政府債務風險預警具有較好的參考價值。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Greece, Iceland, Dubai and other Western countries have been plunged into sovereign debt crisis, and their economies have been adversely affected. More and more governments realize that borrowing can promote economic development on the one hand. On the other hand, improper borrowing behavior may aggravate the debt burden of local governments and even lead to debt crisis. During the transitional period, local governments in our country have assumed a great responsibility in promoting sustainable economic and social development. However, due to the mismatch between local government financial power and power, local governments through the way of debt to make up for the gap in financial resources. At present, our local governments lack a sound debt management system and mechanism. In order to prevent and resolve the debt risk, we must face the risk, strengthen the supervision of government debt, and strengthen the early warning. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the early warning of local government debt risk. This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign local government debt risk early warning index system research results, uses the literature research and the case analysis and so on unifies the research method, unifies the H municipal government's concrete situation. The debt risk early warning index system suitable for H city government is constructed, and the early warning model of H city government debt risk is constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first part is the introduction; The second part is the local government debt risk early warning system related theory, introduced the local government debt risk early warning theory and the local government debt risk early warning system research; The third part introduces the general situation of H municipal government debt, including the basic situation of H municipal government debt, the current debt problems and the causes of debt risk; Part 4th introduces the construction of debt risk early warning index system of H municipal government, selects representative early warning index according to the statistical results of index selection rate, and constructs H city government debt risk early warning index system. Part 5th introduces the construction of debt risk early-warning model of H municipal government. Based on the established early-warning index system, the debt risk early-warning model is established and analyzed by using the principle of successive fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Part 6th puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of H-municipal government debt risk warning. This paper takes H municipal government debt risk as the research object, deeply analyzes the problems existing in H municipal government debt, and based on H municipal government debt economic data. The construction of H municipal debt risk early warning index system and risk early warning model has good reference value for local government debt risk early warning.
【學位授予單位】：重慶理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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本文編號：1450742