本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性 企業(yè)投資 逐步回歸法 投資者情緒 中介效應(yīng)　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：許多國(guó)家自從金融危機(jī)后便采取了一系列積極措施加強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)干預(yù),避免經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的產(chǎn)生,近幾年來,我國(guó)處于轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)時(shí)期,面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力,為促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,我國(guó)加大調(diào)控力度,制定了一系列積極的財(cái)政和貨幣政策,政策波動(dòng)頻繁。對(duì)于企業(yè)價(jià)值創(chuàng)造而言,投資活動(dòng)是最重要的活動(dòng),宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境作為影響公司投資決策的一個(gè)重要影響因素,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)一旦具有不確定性,那么會(huì)對(duì)企業(yè)對(duì)未來有效預(yù)期能力產(chǎn)生影響,影響投融資。由此仔細(xì)研究這一情形下的政策不確定性顯得非常重要。同時(shí),投資者情緒也對(duì)企業(yè)投資產(chǎn)生作用。經(jīng)濟(jì)中的歷史和現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)驗(yàn),以及理論總結(jié)和邏輯規(guī)律都已經(jīng)證明,股票價(jià)格系統(tǒng)性地偏離股票的基本價(jià)值,股票的波動(dòng)是來自于資本市場(chǎng)上投資者或高漲或低迷的情緒,這一系統(tǒng)性的偏離作用于實(shí)體投資。行為金融研究表明企業(yè)投資是高管對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)股票的錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)的理性反應(yīng)導(dǎo)致,投資受到投資者情緒作用的影響。因此本文將經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的不確定性、市場(chǎng)中的投資者情緒和公司投資相聯(lián)系,研究三者相互關(guān)系,研究是否經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的不確定性通過資本市場(chǎng)投資者情緒影響企業(yè)投資。因此,本文以政策不確定性和企業(yè)投資作為研究的理論基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合行為金融學(xué)中的投資者情緒,運(yùn)用理論分析和實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方法進(jìn)行了研究。本文采用2012-2015年中國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)板的上市公司的面板的四年的年度數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行研究假設(shè)和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)政策不確定性與企業(yè)的投資行為負(fù)相關(guān),即政策不確定程度大的時(shí)候會(huì)減少企業(yè)投資;投資者情緒與企業(yè)的投資行為正相關(guān),即投資者情緒高漲會(huì)增加企業(yè)投資;通過中介模型檢驗(yàn)的投資者情緒中介效應(yīng)成立,分組檢驗(yàn)后發(fā)現(xiàn),在高換手率和低市值公司,投資者情緒對(duì)投資的影響更顯著。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis, many countries have taken a series of positive measures to strengthen economic intervention to avoid economic problems. In recent years, China is in a period of transition and upgrading, facing economic downward pressure. In order to promote the economic development, our country strengthens the regulation and control dynamics, has formulated a series of positive fiscal and monetary policies, the policy fluctuates frequently. For the enterprise value creation, the investment activity is the most important activity. The macroeconomic environment is an important factor that affects the investment decision of the company. Once the macroeconomic is uncertain, it will have an impact on the ability of the enterprise to expect effectively in the future. Therefore, it is very important to study the policy uncertainty in this situation carefully. At the same time, investor sentiment also has an effect on enterprise investment. The history and practical experience in the economy. As well as theoretical summary and logical laws have proved that the stock price systematically deviates from the basic value of the stock, the stock fluctuation is from the investors in the capital market or high or low mood. Behavioral finance studies show that corporate investment is the result of executives' rational reaction to mispricing of capital market stocks. Investment is affected by investor sentiment. Therefore, this paper studies the relationship among the uncertainty of economic policy, investor sentiment in the market and corporate investment. This paper studies whether the uncertainty of economic policy affects enterprise investment through the investor sentiment of capital market. Therefore, this paper takes policy uncertainty and enterprise investment as the theoretical basis of the study. Combining investor sentiment in behavioral finance. This paper uses the method of theoretical analysis and empirical research to conduct the research. This paper uses the annual data of the panel of listed companies in the China growth Enterprise Market (gem) from 2012 to 2015. The research hypothesis and empirical test show that the policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with the investment behavior of enterprises, that is, when the degree of policy uncertainty is high, the enterprise investment will be reduced. The investor sentiment is positively related to the investment behavior of the enterprise, that is, the upsurge of investor sentiment will increase the enterprise investment; The intermediary effect of investor sentiment tested by intermediary model is established. After grouping test, it is found that investor sentiment has more significant influence on investment in high turnover rate and low market value company.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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