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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)的國(guó)債規(guī)模研究　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國(guó)債規(guī)模 指標(biāo)分析 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)

【摘要】：國(guó)債是國(guó)家政府憑借其信用,為籌集資金而公開發(fā)行的到期需要還本付息的一種有價(jià)證券。我國(guó)自1981年恢復(fù)國(guó)債發(fā)行以來,隨著我國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的不斷深入,國(guó)債的發(fā)行規(guī)模也越來越大,尤其是1998年以來,我國(guó)采取增發(fā)國(guó)債的措施來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),導(dǎo)致國(guó)債規(guī)模迅速膨脹。眾所周知,國(guó)債是一把雙刃劍,發(fā)行國(guó)債既可以對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生積極的影響,同時(shí)也可能起到負(fù)面的作用,國(guó)債發(fā)行規(guī)模如果過大,甚至可能導(dǎo)致債務(wù)危機(jī)。因此,研究國(guó)債規(guī)模是很有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。 本文所討論的國(guó)債規(guī)模是當(dāng)年發(fā)行的國(guó)債總額,國(guó)債的適度規(guī)模是指國(guó)債在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)這一大參照系下國(guó)債的最滿意或最合理的數(shù)量界限,這一界限不是一個(gè)具體的絕對(duì)值而是一個(gè)合理的區(qū)間。適度的國(guó)債規(guī)模是國(guó)家政府實(shí)行有效宏觀調(diào)控、保持國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的內(nèi)在要求。本文采用了理論與實(shí)踐、實(shí)證分析與規(guī)范分析相結(jié)合的研究方法,選取了1981-2011年的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用Eviews6.0對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)債的歷史發(fā)行量進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并對(duì)此提出我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模的相應(yīng)政策建議。 本文共分為六章,第一章引言,闡述了研究背景、研究意義以及目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)國(guó)債規(guī)模問題研究的情況；第二章是通過對(duì)國(guó)債的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的分析,論述了適度國(guó)債對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的有效促進(jìn)作用、國(guó)債規(guī)模過大對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的消極作用；第三章介紹了國(guó)債規(guī)模的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)以及衡量國(guó)債的現(xiàn)實(shí)指標(biāo),這些都為后文的實(shí)證分析打下理論基礎(chǔ)。 第四章和第五章是本文的重點(diǎn)。首先運(yùn)用國(guó)際通行的合理指標(biāo)對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)債規(guī)模進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析,分別考察了國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)債能力的負(fù)擔(dān)率、赤字率、居民應(yīng)債率、借債率以及國(guó)債償債能力的國(guó)債依存度、國(guó)債償債率,得出我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模正處于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)債能力相對(duì)寬松和財(cái)政本身債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)沉重的矛盾之中,但是這并不能作為衡量國(guó)債規(guī)模是否適度的絕對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),還應(yīng)該從國(guó)債的實(shí)際使用狀況和政府的自償能力以及我國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)情等方面綜合考慮,由于國(guó)債規(guī)模受到多重客觀因素的限制,未來的一段時(shí)間內(nèi),主要應(yīng)該側(cè)重于調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的應(yīng)債能力,同時(shí)通過建立多馬模型得出我國(guó)早期由于國(guó)債規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)張存在較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但是近年來國(guó)家采取相應(yīng)的措施應(yīng)對(duì),危機(jī)得以緩解,然而國(guó)債發(fā)行規(guī)模擴(kuò)大所產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)危機(jī)不容忽視。接著,再進(jìn)一步分析影響我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模的主要因素,在上述因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)并挑選出國(guó)債發(fā)行規(guī)模的Granger原因,再對(duì)其變量建立VAR模型和進(jìn)行協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),建立協(xié)整方程和短期誤差修正模型(VEC模型)。由此可知,我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模最重要的影響因素是GDP、財(cái)政赤字以及國(guó)債余額,并且我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模與GDP存在負(fù)相關(guān)。這表明,從長(zhǎng)期來看,經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)降低對(duì)國(guó)債的需求,使得國(guó)債發(fā)行量減少,長(zhǎng)此下去,國(guó)債規(guī)模將會(huì)趨于一種良性循環(huán)的狀態(tài)。結(jié)果表明,目前我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模仍然處于可控制的范圍內(nèi),但是仍然存在一定程度的隱患,對(duì)此需要謹(jǐn)慎發(fā)行國(guó)債。 第六章,根據(jù)結(jié)論為指導(dǎo),對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)債提出政策建議：加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式,提高經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力；將國(guó)債利息支出納入財(cái)政預(yù)算,使國(guó)債規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張變得法制化；增加財(cái)政收入的來源；調(diào)整財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)、壓縮支出。
[Abstract]:Is the national government bonds with its credit, raise funds for the public offering of the maturity of debt service needs a securities. Since 1981 China resumed the issuance of government bonds, with the rapid development of China's market economy and the deepening of economic reform, the scale of the national debt is also growing, especially since 1998 in China, the issuance of treasury bonds take measures to stimulate economic growth, leading to the rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds. As everyone knows, the national debt is a double-edged sword, the issuance of treasury bonds can have a positive impact on economic development, but also may play a negative role, the scale of national debt is too large, may even lead to debt crisis. Therefore, study on the scale of treasury bonds is of great significance.
This paper discussed the scale of national debt is the total debt was issued, the appropriate scale of treasury bonds in the limit refers to the national economy this big frame of reference of debt the most satisfactory or most reasonable, this limit is not a specific absolute value but a reasonable interval. The proper scale of national debt is the country government to implement effective macro-control, to maintain the inherent requirements of the rapid development of the national economy. This paper uses the theory and practice of research methods, empirical analysis and normative analysis, selects the 1981-2011 data, using empirical analysis of Eviews6.0 on our country history of debt issuance, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations the scale of Treasury I country.
This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is introduction, describes the research background, research significance and the current situation of research on the size of the bond issue at home and abroad; the second chapter is the analysis on the economic effect of national debt, discusses the effective role of government debt on the national economy, national debt scale big negative effect on economy; the third chapter introduces the related theory basis and practical measure of the scale of treasury bonds bonds, these are for the later empirical analysis lay a theoretical basis.
The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the focus of this paper. Firstly, using reasonable indicator of international debt scale in China to conduct empirical analysis, investigates the national economy debt burden rate, the deficit rate and debt rate of residents, debt ratio and debt solvency debt dependence, government debt service ratio, the our national debt is in the national economy should be relatively loose and the fiscal debt heavy debt burden of contradiction, but this is not absolute standard as a measure of the scale of treasury bonds is not appropriate, should also be considered from its actual use condition and the government's self compensation ability and the actual condition of our country, because of the scale of treasury bonds by the multiple objective factors, the next period of time, which should be focused on the economic regulation of the debt capacity, at the same time, through the establishment of that China's early period due to Thomas model The rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds there is a big risk, but in recent years the state to take appropriate measures to deal with the crisis eased, however, the scale of national debt to expand the debt crisis can not be ignored. Then, further analysis of main factors influencing the scale of national debt in our country, based on the above analysis on the factors, using Granger causality test and selection of abroad Granger the size of the debt issue, then the variables to establish VAR model and cointegration test, cointegration equation and short-term error correction model (VEC model). The influencing factors of China's national debt scale is the most important GDP, fiscal deficit and debt balance, and the scale of national debt in China and GDP there is a negative correlation. This shows that in the long term, sustained economic growth will reduce the demand for government bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds to reduce the amount of debt, this scale will tend to be a good The results show that the scale of China's national debt is still in the controllable range, but there is still a hidden danger to some extent, so we need to issue treasury bonds carefully.
The sixth chapter, according to the conclusions to the guidance of China's national debt policy recommendations: to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic growth, improve the economic strength; the bond interest expenses included in the financial budget, the debt scale expansion become legalized; increase the source of revenue; adjust the fiscal expenditure structure, reducing spending.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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