發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-07 04:00

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：利用AHP法完善城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估體系　出處：《財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 地方投融資平臺 城投債 內(nèi)部評級 AHP法

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會的發(fā)展,我國地方政府的支出壓力越來越大,地方政府通過稅收獲得的收入已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)不能覆蓋其支出。同時(shí),我國《預(yù)算法》明確規(guī)定,“除法律和國務(wù)院另有規(guī)定外,地方政府不得發(fā)行地方政府債券”。因此,地方政府只能借助地方投融資平臺舉債融資。 所謂地方投融資平臺(也稱為“城投公司”),一般是由地方國資委或其他政府機(jī)構(gòu)控股的從事城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)或公益事業(yè)的公司。這些公司通常由地方政府劃撥土地、股權(quán)等資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行注資成立,法人治理不健全、盈利能力差,收入主要依靠地方政府補(bǔ)貼和政策優(yōu)惠。城投公司靠舉債融資,發(fā)行的債券稱為城投債。城投債是我國債券市場上一類特殊的債券,一方面體現(xiàn)在發(fā)行主體的經(jīng)營資質(zhì)差,另一方面則體現(xiàn)在其背后政府的“隱性擔(dān)�！�。 誠然,融資平臺及其發(fā)行的城投債在近些年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與社會發(fā)展中扮演了十分重要的角色。然而,正是由于它的特殊性與地方政府的不透明性,使得城投債在市場上的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并未明顯暴露出來,外部評級機(jī)構(gòu)對城投債的評級普遍偏高。本文正是在這種背景下希望建立一套分析城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的邏輯體系,采用AHP法建立起城投債的內(nèi)部評級體系。 本文采用比較分析法、案例分析法、定性與定量分析法等方法,首先對我國城投債的產(chǎn)生與發(fā)展進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的闡述,在此基礎(chǔ)上歸納出城投債的特性,并對城投債與地方政府債券的關(guān)系進(jìn)行闡釋。其次,文章介紹了國內(nèi)外多種債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評估方法,并進(jìn)行比較分析,得出層次分析法(簡稱“AHP法”)是適合中國債券市場發(fā)展的信用評估方法。然后,文章利用AHP法構(gòu)建城投債內(nèi)部評級體系,還將這套體系運(yùn)用到具體案例中,以此證明本文介紹的方法具有可操作性。文章的最后提出了降低城投債系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政策建議：一是加強(qiáng)宏觀調(diào)控能力,保持經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行；二是完善地方政府舉債機(jī)制；三是增加城投債信用增信方式；四是提高城投債的透明度；五是將城投債券合理過渡到市政債。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society in China, the expenditure of local governments in China more and more big, the local government through the tax revenue has been far from being able to cover the expenses. At the same time, China's "budget law > stipulates that" subject to the provisions of the law and the state Council, the local government may not issue local government bonds. Therefore, the local government can only use local investment and financing platform of debt financing.
The so-called local financing platform (also known as the "city investment company"), usually by the local SASAC holding or other government agencies engaged in the city infrastructure construction or the public utilities companies. These companies usually by the local government allocated land, equity and other assets into capital, corporate governance is not perfect, poor profitability. The income mainly rely on local government subsidies and preferential policies. The city investment companies rely on debt financing, the issuance of bonds called the city voted debt. The city voted bonds of China's bond market and a special bond, embodied in the main issue of the business qualification, on the other hand, is reflected in the government's "behind implicit guarantee.
Indeed, the financing platform and the city to vote bonds issued to play a very important role in recent years, China's economic growth and social development. However, because of the particularity of opaque and the local government, the city voted debt credit risk in the market is not obvious, the external rating agencies for the city to vote the debt rating is generally high. This article is in this context that wants to build a city to vote bonds credit risk analysis logic system, the internal rating system to establish the city voted bonds by the AHP method.
This paper uses the method of comparative analysis, case analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis method, firstly elaborated on the construction and development of China's city investment bonds, based on the characteristics of inductive city investment bonds, and the city voted bonds and local government bonds are explained. Secondly, this paper introduces the evaluation for a variety of domestic and international bond credit risk, and carries on the comparative analysis, AHP ("AHP") is a credit evaluation method for Chinese bond market development. Then, the construction of the city voted debt internal rating system by using the AHP method, also will use the system to the specific case, in order to prove the method this paper introduces the operability. Finally, put forward to reduce the systemic risk of the city investment bond policy suggestions: the first is to strengthen macro-control ability, keep the economy running smoothly; the two is to improve the local government borrowing machine System; three is to increase investment and debt credit credit; the four is to enhance the transparency of the city voted debt; five is the city voted bonds reasonable transition to municipal bonds.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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本文編號：1390869