【摘要】：可持續(xù)發(fā)展是人類生存和發(fā)展永恒的主題，是歷史的必然選擇。如何定量測(cè)度區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度是實(shí)現(xiàn)生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)。2002年，國家環(huán)保局正式批準(zhǔn)福建省為生態(tài)建設(shè)試點(diǎn)省份。2014年3月，國務(wù)院確定福建省為全國第一個(gè)生態(tài)文明先行示范區(qū)。福建省在經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛發(fā)展的同時(shí)，由于工業(yè)化、城市化的加快和人口的增加，使得社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和資源環(huán)境之間的矛盾日漸深化。因此，正確認(rèn)識(shí)福建省的可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，不僅對(duì)福建生態(tài)省的建設(shè)具有指導(dǎo)作用，對(duì)整個(gè)海峽西岸經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的研究也具有重大意義。 本文運(yùn)用近年來較為流行的生態(tài)足跡模型來研究福建省的可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，其主要從經(jīng)濟(jì)需求和生態(tài)供給兩方面的供需平衡狀況來綜合測(cè)度區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度。首先，分別從靜態(tài)研究和動(dòng)態(tài)研究?jī)煞矫鎸?duì)福建省的生態(tài)足跡和生態(tài)承載力進(jìn)行測(cè)算，并結(jié)合相關(guān)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行評(píng)估與分析，結(jié)果表明：目前福建省人類社會(huì)的消費(fèi)需求已經(jīng)超過了其生態(tài)系統(tǒng)供給能力，在省域上處于不可持續(xù)狀態(tài)。生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)由2000年的稍不安全級(jí)別（3級(jí)）上升到2012年的較不安全級(jí)別（4級(jí)），這說明福建省所面臨的生態(tài)壓力在不斷增大。其次，運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測(cè)GM(1，1)模型對(duì)福建省未來的可持續(xù)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，得到福建省2020年的人均生態(tài)足跡將增至3.4862hm2，，人均生態(tài)承載力將降為0.4600hm2，生態(tài)赤字將高達(dá)3.0262hm2，生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)將上升到1.35。這些數(shù)據(jù)意味著，如果以現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式發(fā)展下去的話，福建省未來的可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r不容樂觀，生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)將面臨嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)。最后，根據(jù)現(xiàn)狀分析和預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，結(jié)合福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況，提出如何降低生態(tài)足跡，減少赤字，以促進(jìn)福建省可持續(xù)發(fā)展的政策建議，主要包括：控制人口規(guī)模，提高人口素質(zhì)；加大科技投入，提高土地利用效率；轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；建立生態(tài)足跡評(píng)估預(yù)警和補(bǔ)償機(jī)制等。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is the eternal theme of human survival and development, and it is the inevitable choice of history. How to quantitatively measure the degree of regional sustainable development is the key link to realize the coordinated development of ecological and economic system. In 2002, the State Environmental Protection Bureau officially approved Fujian Province as the pilot province of ecological construction. In March 2014, the State Council designated Fujian Province as the first ecological civilization demonstration area in China. With the rapid development of economy in Fujian Province, due to the acceleration of industrialization, urbanization and population, the contradiction between society, economy and resources and environment is deepening day by day. Therefore, a correct understanding of the sustainable development of Fujian Province not only plays a guiding role in the construction of Fujian ecological province, but also has great significance in the study of the sustainable development of the economic zone on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait. In this paper, the ecological footprint model, which is popular in recent years, is used to study the sustainable development of Fujian Province, which mainly measures the degree of regional sustainable development from two aspects of economic demand and ecological supply. First of all, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Fujian Province are calculated from two aspects of static research and dynamic research, and the results show that the consumption demand of human society in Fujian Province has exceeded its ecosystem supply capacity and is in an unsustainable state in the province. The ecological pressure index increased from a slightly unsafe level in 2000 (grade 3) to a less unsafe level in 2012 (level 4), which indicates that the ecological pressure faced by Fujian Province is increasing. Secondly, the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model is used to predict the sustainable development trend of Fujian Province in the future. it is concluded that the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province will increase to 3.4862hm2 in 2020, the per capita ecological carrying capacity will be reduced to 0.4600hm2, the ecological deficit will be as high as 3.0262hm2, and the ecological pressure index will rise to 1.35. These data mean that if the existing economic growth model continues to develop, the future sustainable development of Fujian Province is not optimistic, and the ecological economic system will face a severe test. Finally, according to the present situation analysis and prediction results, combined with the actual situation of economic and social development in Fujian Province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to reduce the ecological footprint and reduce the deficit in order to promote the sustainable development of Fujian Province, including: controlling the population size, improving the quality of the population, increasing investment in science and technology, improving land use efficiency, changing the mode of economic growth and optimizing the industrial structure; Establish early warning and compensation mechanism for ecological footprint assessment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X22

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