【摘要】：從理論上講，本國貨幣升值具有通貨緊縮的效應(yīng)，能有效抑制本國通貨膨脹。但實(shí)際上從2005年7月我們國家進(jìn)行了人民幣匯率制度改革以來，人民幣持續(xù)升值的同時通貨膨脹也伴隨出現(xiàn)。從此，人民幣為完成其國際化的使命而步入了持續(xù)而漫長的升值通道中。美國一直對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大的影響，人民幣兌美元匯率在匯率籃子里占舉足輕重的位置。目前人民幣對美元匯率升幅已超過了百分之三十。人民幣匯率的變動會對我國國內(nèi)物價、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、就業(yè)以及貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生不同程度的影響[1]。因此，研究出匯率價格傳遞效應(yīng)對指導(dǎo)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整具有非常重大的意義。 本文簡要闡述了我國人民幣匯率變動與物價水平變動的發(fā)展歷程及現(xiàn)狀特點(diǎn)，引入了匯率變動與消費(fèi)者價格之間傳遞效應(yīng)的一些相關(guān)理論，采用理論分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合、描述性數(shù)據(jù)分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的研究方式，對1994.1 2013.6的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了描述性分析，得出了我國匯率水平和物價水平的變動趨勢和特點(diǎn)。為了更好的揭示二者之間的關(guān)系建立了STR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，平滑轉(zhuǎn)換STR模型能夠準(zhǔn)確地描述人民幣匯率波動與消費(fèi)者價格之間的非線性動態(tài)傳遞關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明，在1994年第1季度到2013年第2季度之間，人民幣名義有效匯率波動與消費(fèi)者價格兩者之間存在較為明顯的非對稱性，呈現(xiàn)出機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)換動態(tài)特征。在高通脹（緊縮）時期，人民幣匯率的物價傳遞效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)得較大；相反，在通脹較低且相對穩(wěn)定時，人民幣匯率的物價傳遞效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)得較小。 針對上述研究結(jié)果，本文針對性的提出了一些政策建議，建議我們國家適當(dāng)控制人民幣升值幅度，完善人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制，選擇彈性比較大的有管理的浮動匯率制度，強(qiáng)化相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制配套改革，而我們國家當(dāng)前的貨幣政策可以采取盯住通貨膨脹的泰勒規(guī)則貨幣政策。
[Abstract]:Theoretically speaking, the appreciation of the domestic currency has the deflationary effect and can effectively restrain the inflation in the country. But in fact, since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in our country in July 2005, the continuous appreciation of RMB has been accompanied by inflation. Since then, the RMB has entered a sustained and long appreciation channel in order to complete its mission of internationalization. The United States has always had a great impact on China's economy, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar plays an important role in the exchange rate basket. At present, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar has increased by more than 30%. The change of RMB exchange rate will have different effects on domestic prices, economic growth, employment and trade balance [1]. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the exchange rate price transfer effect to guide macroeconomic adjustment. This paper briefly expounds the development course and present characteristics of RMB exchange rate change and price level change in China, introduces some related theories of the transmission effect between exchange rate change and consumer price, and makes a descriptive analysis of the relevant data of 1994.1 鈮，

本文編號：2499002