【摘要】：近年來,學術(shù)界對土地利用／土地覆被研究的關(guān)注程度越來越高。在眾多土地利用變化模型中,基于過往土地利用研究經(jīng)驗、未來年份土地利用需求數(shù)量的CLUE-S模型適用于空間尺度較小的土地利用變化模擬。 本文以潛江市為研究對象,以潛江市2005年、2010年土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖為基礎(chǔ),在綜合了影響潛江市土地利用變化自然、社會驅(qū)動因子的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合灰色預(yù)測GM(1,1)模型土地需求預(yù)測結(jié)果以及CLUE-S模型的相關(guān)參數(shù)設(shè)置,利用CLUE-S模型對潛江市2010年、2020年兩期土地利用空間分布狀況進行模擬預(yù)測。研究有利于揭示潛江市土地利用變化規(guī)律,為潛江市優(yōu)化區(qū)域土地資源配置提供參考,同時,今后在江漢平原地區(qū)開展類似研究具有一定的參考價值和借鑒意義。本研究的主要成果如下： (1)本研究通過對不同模擬尺度柵格數(shù)據(jù)的Logistic回歸分析結(jié)果進行Roc對比檢驗,以得到的Roc值大小為判斷準則來選擇適合模擬尺度。通過對比不同尺度的Roc值可以發(fā)現(xiàn),耕地、交通水利用地、城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地、水域、其他農(nóng)用地這些潛江市主要用地類型的Roc值在尺度200*200下達到最大值,故CLUE-S模型適用于柵格尺度200*200的縣級尺度潛江市土地利用空間格局模擬。Logistic回歸分析結(jié)果還表明,在不同時間段內(nèi),影響潛江市不同地類空間格局變化的主要驅(qū)動因子不完全相同。 (2)利用CLUE-S模型,模擬預(yù)測了潛江市2010年、2020年兩期土地利用空間格局。模擬結(jié)果顯示,潛江市2010年土地利用空間模擬正確土地面積為175977公頃,即正確模擬柵格個數(shù)為43994個,占柵格總數(shù)的88.26%；Kappa指數(shù)的計算結(jié)果為0.7617；模擬結(jié)果表明,CLUE-S模型仿真模擬結(jié)果可信度強,適用于模擬縣級尺度的潛江市土地利用空間格局變化。潛江市2020年土地利用空間模擬正確土地面積為190729公頃,即正確模擬柵格個數(shù)為47682個,占柵格總數(shù)的95.66%,Kappa指數(shù)的計算結(jié)果為0.9146。研究顯示,CLUE-S模型對于研究區(qū)2020年土地利用空間格局的模擬與其2020年土地利用總體規(guī)劃高度一致。 (3)2010年到2020年,各地類的變化存在較大差異。耕地、林地、其他農(nóng)用地面積呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢,城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地增長較快,水域面積略有增加,交通水利用地保持不變。各地類的變化幅度從大到小依次為城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地林地耕地其他農(nóng)用地水域交通水利用地。其中,耕地因基數(shù)面積較大,故變化幅度較林地略小
[Abstract]:In recent years, academic circles pay more and more attention to land use / land cover research. Among many land use change models, based on the past land use research experience, the CLUE-S model of land use demand quantity in the future year is suitable for the simulation of land use change with small spatial scale. Taking Qianjiang City as the research object, based on the present land use map of Qianjiang City in 2005 and 2010, on the basis of synthesizing the natural and social driving factors of land use change in Qianjiang City, combined with the prediction results of land demand of grey prediction GM (1, 1) model and the setting of relevant parameters of CLUE-S model, the spatial distribution of land use in Qianjiang City in 2010 and 2020 is simulated and predicted by using CLUE-S model. The study is helpful to reveal the law of land use change in Qianjiang City and provide a reference for Qianjiang City to optimize the allocation of regional land resources. at the same time, similar research in Jianghan Plain will have certain reference value and significance in the future. The main results of this study are as follows: (1) the results of Logistic regression analysis of raster data with different simulation scales are compared and tested by Roc, and the suitable simulation scale is selected by using the obtained Rocs value as the criterion. By comparing the Roc values of cultivated land, traffic water conservancy land, urban and rural construction land, water area and other agricultural land, it can be found that the CLUE-S model is suitable for simulating the spatial pattern of land use in Qianjiang city with raster scale 200. Logistic regression analysis also shows that in different time periods, the CLUE-S model is suitable for simulating the spatial pattern of land use in Qianjiang city with raster scale 2000.Logistic regression analysis also shows that the CLUE-S model can be used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Qianjiang city with raster scale 2000.Logistic regression analysis also shows that the CLUE-S model is suitable for land use spatial pattern simulation at county level. The main driving factors affecting the change of spatial pattern of different lands in Qianjiang City are not exactly the same. (2) using CLUE-S model, the spatial pattern of land use in Qianjiang City in 2010 and 2020 is simulated and predicted. The simulation results show that the correct land area of land use spatial simulation in Qianjiang City in 2010 is 175977 hectares, that is, the number of correctly simulated grids is 43994, accounting for 88.26% of the total grid, and the calculated results are 0.7617. the simulation results show that the simulation results of CLUE-S model are credible and suitable for simulating the spatial pattern change of land use in Qianjiang City on a county scale. The correct land area of land use spatial simulation in Qianjiang City in 2020 is 190729 hectares, that is, the number of correctly simulated grid is 47682, accounting for 95.66% of the total grid, and the calculated result of Kappa index is 0.9146. The results show that the simulation of land use spatial pattern in 2020 by CLUE-S model is highly consistent with its overall land use planning in 2020. (3) from 2010 to 2020, there are great differences in the changes of different categories. The area of cultivated land, forest land and other agricultural land showed a decreasing trend, the urban and rural construction land increased rapidly, the water area increased slightly, and the traffic water use land remained unchanged. The variation range from large to small is urban and rural construction land, woodland, cultivated land, other agricultural land, water conservancy land. Among them, due to the large base area of cultivated land, the change range of cultivated land is slightly smaller than that of forest land.
【學位授予單位】：華中師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301.2;F224

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