【摘要】：針對(duì)考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)情形的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估問(wèn)題,提出了一種基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法。該方法中,通過(guò)識(shí)別引起供應(yīng)鏈中各節(jié)點(diǎn)企業(yè)供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,構(gòu)建一個(gè)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),并依據(jù)貝葉斯公式計(jì)算考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)情形下供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生概率,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。最后,通過(guò)一個(gè)算例說(shuō)明了該方法的可行性和有效性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a Bayesian network-based supply risk assessment method is proposed for the supply risk assessment problem considering the risk transmission case. In this method, a Bayesian network is constructed by identifying the key risk factors that cause the supply risk of each node in the supply chain, and the probability of supply risk in the case of risk transmission is calculated according to Bayesian formula, and then the probability of supply risk in the case of risk transmission is calculated on the basis of the Bayesian network. Evaluate the supply risk that takes into account risk transmission. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.
【作者單位】： 東北大學(xué)工商管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71271051) 遼寧省教育廳人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地專項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目(ZJ2014020)
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F224

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