中國積極就業(yè)政策有效性研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-01 12:07
【摘要】：金融危機(jī)后,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度放緩,失業(yè)率居高不下,全世界都面臨著就業(yè)難題。我國政府出臺了一系列旨在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、進(jìn)而帶動就業(yè)的政策。我國的積極就業(yè)政策始于2002年,在金融危機(jī)后得到較快發(fā)展。“十二五”規(guī)劃綱要明確提出要實(shí)施更加積極的就業(yè)政策,包括千方百計擴(kuò)大就業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)規(guī)模,完善稅費(fèi)減免、崗位補(bǔ)貼、培訓(xùn)補(bǔ)貼等政策,完善和落實(shí)小額擔(dān)保貸款,完善就業(yè)援助政策,多渠道開發(fā)公益性崗位,并且加強(qiáng)公共就業(yè)服務(wù)等內(nèi)容。在此背景下,評價我國積極就業(yè)政策的有效性,即研究我國積極就業(yè)政策的實(shí)施是否顯著促進(jìn)了就業(yè)的增長,具有重要的理論價值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文研究我國積極就業(yè)政策的有效性,主要從三方面展開。第一,從理論依據(jù)、勞動力市場供需曲線和理論框架這三個方面,從理論上分析了積極就業(yè)政策的有效性。第二,從橫向和縱向兩個方面考察了我國積極就業(yè)政策的支出規(guī)模。橫向比較來說,OECD國家的積極就業(yè)政策支出占GDP的比重大概為0.58%,我國積極就業(yè)政策支出占GDP的比重約為0.14%,橫向比較說明我國支出規(guī)模水平偏低；縱向發(fā)展來說,我國的積極就業(yè)政策投入規(guī)模從1998年起呈不斷上升的趨勢,截至2012年底,我國積極就業(yè)政策投入累計為4099.42億元,年增長速度較快。第三,通過建立就業(yè)與積極就業(yè)政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的回歸方程,運(yùn)用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法定量分析積極就業(yè)政策對就業(yè)的影響,并根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果得出我國積極就業(yè)政策有效的結(jié)論。具體結(jié)果是,(1)采用國家宏觀層面1998-2012的時序數(shù)據(jù)分析得到我國積極就業(yè)政策是有效的,就業(yè)與積極就業(yè)政策顯著正相關(guān)；(2)采用2005-2012年的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)一步研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)整體上積極就業(yè)政策仍然是有效的,面板數(shù)據(jù)的混合OLS回歸結(jié)果為,積極就業(yè)政策能夠顯著有效地促進(jìn)就業(yè),就業(yè)與積極就業(yè)政策之間的回歸系數(shù)為0.8,即積極就業(yè)政策支出增加1個百分點(diǎn),就業(yè)可以增加0.8個百分點(diǎn),但是省級面板數(shù)據(jù)的固定效應(yīng)模型顯示,積極就業(yè)政策在各省之間的有效性不同。因此,從整體上來看,我國的積極就業(yè)政策是有效的,但是,另一方面也仍存在可以進(jìn)一步改善的空間,通過不斷的完善積極就業(yè)政策來更好地促進(jìn)就業(yè),更好地服務(wù)勞動者�；谏鲜鼋Y(jié)論,提出了幾點(diǎn)促進(jìn)積極就業(yè)政策有效性的建議：第一,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與擴(kuò)大就業(yè)良性互動；第二,加大積極就業(yè)政策財政投入力度,使積極就業(yè)政策能夠服務(wù)更多勞動者；第三,大力推進(jìn)勞動力市場的培育和建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the global economy slows down, the unemployment rate is high, the whole world is facing the employment problem. Our government has issued a series of policies aimed at promoting economic growth and thus driving employment. China's active employment policy began in 2002 and developed rapidly after the financial crisis. The outline of the 12th five-year Plan clearly proposes the need to implement more active employment policies, including doing everything possible to expand the scale of employment and entrepreneurship, improve tax and tax exemptions, job subsidies, training subsidies, and other policies, and improve and implement small-scale guaranteed loans. Improve employment assistance policy, multi-channel development of public welfare posts, and strengthen public employment services and other content. In this context, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to evaluate the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, that is, to study whether the implementation of China's active employment policy has significantly promoted the growth of employment. This paper studies the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, mainly from three aspects. First, from the theoretical basis, labor market supply and demand curve and theoretical framework, from the theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of active employment policy. Secondly, the expenditure scale of China's active employment policy is investigated from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal comparison, the proportion of positive employment policy expenditure to GDP in OECD countries is about 0.58%, and the proportion of China's active employment policy expenditure to GDP is about 0.14%. The horizontal comparison shows that the scale of expenditure in China is on the low side; As far as vertical development is concerned, the investment scale of our country's active employment policy has been increasing continuously since 1998. By the end of 2012, the total investment of our country's active employment policy is four hundred and nine billion nine hundred and forty two million yuan, and the annual growth rate is relatively fast. Thirdly, through the establishment of the regression equation between employment and positive employment policies, economic growth, and quantitative analysis of the impact of positive employment policies on employment by using econometric methods. According to the empirical results, we can draw a conclusion that the positive employment policy of our country is effective. The specific results are as follows: (1) the positive employment policy of our country is effective by using the time series data analysis of 1998 / 2012 at the national macro level, and the positive correlation between employment and positive employment policy is significant; (2) based on the provincial panel data of 2005 / 2012, it is found that the positive employment policy is still effective, and the mixed OLS regression of panel data shows that the positive employment policy can promote employment significantly. The regression coefficient between employment and active employment policy is 0.8, that is, the expenditure of active employment policy increases by 1 percentage point and employment can increase by 0.8 percentage points, but the fixed effect model of provincial panel data shows that The effectiveness of active employment policies varies from province to province. Therefore, on the whole, China's active employment policy is effective, but on the other hand, there is still room for further improvement, through the continuous improvement of the positive employment policy to better promote employment, better service to workers. Based on the above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward to promote the effectiveness of positive employment policies: first, the positive interaction between promoting economic growth and expanding employment; Second, increase the financial input of the active employment policy, so that the active employment policy can serve more workers; third, vigorously promote the cultivation and construction of the labor market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F249.20
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the global economy slows down, the unemployment rate is high, the whole world is facing the employment problem. Our government has issued a series of policies aimed at promoting economic growth and thus driving employment. China's active employment policy began in 2002 and developed rapidly after the financial crisis. The outline of the 12th five-year Plan clearly proposes the need to implement more active employment policies, including doing everything possible to expand the scale of employment and entrepreneurship, improve tax and tax exemptions, job subsidies, training subsidies, and other policies, and improve and implement small-scale guaranteed loans. Improve employment assistance policy, multi-channel development of public welfare posts, and strengthen public employment services and other content. In this context, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to evaluate the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, that is, to study whether the implementation of China's active employment policy has significantly promoted the growth of employment. This paper studies the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, mainly from three aspects. First, from the theoretical basis, labor market supply and demand curve and theoretical framework, from the theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of active employment policy. Secondly, the expenditure scale of China's active employment policy is investigated from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal comparison, the proportion of positive employment policy expenditure to GDP in OECD countries is about 0.58%, and the proportion of China's active employment policy expenditure to GDP is about 0.14%. The horizontal comparison shows that the scale of expenditure in China is on the low side; As far as vertical development is concerned, the investment scale of our country's active employment policy has been increasing continuously since 1998. By the end of 2012, the total investment of our country's active employment policy is four hundred and nine billion nine hundred and forty two million yuan, and the annual growth rate is relatively fast. Thirdly, through the establishment of the regression equation between employment and positive employment policies, economic growth, and quantitative analysis of the impact of positive employment policies on employment by using econometric methods. According to the empirical results, we can draw a conclusion that the positive employment policy of our country is effective. The specific results are as follows: (1) the positive employment policy of our country is effective by using the time series data analysis of 1998 / 2012 at the national macro level, and the positive correlation between employment and positive employment policy is significant; (2) based on the provincial panel data of 2005 / 2012, it is found that the positive employment policy is still effective, and the mixed OLS regression of panel data shows that the positive employment policy can promote employment significantly. The regression coefficient between employment and active employment policy is 0.8, that is, the expenditure of active employment policy increases by 1 percentage point and employment can increase by 0.8 percentage points, but the fixed effect model of provincial panel data shows that The effectiveness of active employment policies varies from province to province. Therefore, on the whole, China's active employment policy is effective, but on the other hand, there is still room for further improvement, through the continuous improvement of the positive employment policy to better promote employment, better service to workers. Based on the above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward to promote the effectiveness of positive employment policies: first, the positive interaction between promoting economic growth and expanding employment; Second, increase the financial input of the active employment policy, so that the active employment policy can serve more workers; third, vigorously promote the cultivation and construction of the labor market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F249.20
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