【摘要】：研究目的:針對多用地類別的城市用地模擬預(yù)測提出一種科學(xué)合理的預(yù)測模型,為土地利用總體規(guī)劃編制和土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整提供依據(jù)和技術(shù)方法。研究方法:在分析了城市用地模擬預(yù)測中常用方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)和適用環(huán)境后,提出了一種綜合采用Markov模型和C 5.0分類算法的城市用地布局模擬預(yù)測CA模型,該模型的思想是采用Markov方法獲取各類土地之間的流向,結(jié)合各類土地規(guī)模的預(yù)測結(jié)果確定用地增長量,采用C 5.0分類算法獲取各類土地之間的轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,最后以武漢市為例對該方法進(jìn)行了論證。研究結(jié)果:通過該方法模擬的武漢市2012年各類土地的規(guī)模和分布總模擬精度達(dá)到91.2%,與實(shí)際情況高度一致,說明該方法能夠很好的模擬武漢市的土地利用規(guī)模和布局。研究結(jié)論:該方法可以直觀的了解各空間因子與轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則的關(guān)系,并能夠很好的對城市的未來情況進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測,還能夠了解城市內(nèi)部各類用地間的作用機(jī)理。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to propose a scientific and reasonable forecasting model for urban land use simulation and prediction of multi-land use categories, which provides the basis and technical method for the overall planning of land use and the optimization and adjustment of land use structure. Research methods: after analyzing the advantages, disadvantages and applicable environment of the commonly used methods in urban land use simulation and forecasting, a CA model for urban land use layout simulation and prediction is put forward, which is based on Markov model and C 5.0 classification algorithm. The idea of this model is to use the Markov method to obtain the flow direction of all kinds of land, to determine the increase of land use by combining the prediction results of various land sizes, and to obtain the conversion rules between all kinds of land by using the C 5.0 classification algorithm. Finally, taking Wuhan as an example, the method is demonstrated. The results show that the total simulation accuracy of the scale and distribution of all kinds of land in Wuhan in 2012 is 91.2%, which is highly consistent with the actual situation, which shows that this method can simulate the scale and distribution of land use in Wuhan. Conclusion: this method can directly understand the relationship between the spatial factors and the transformation rules, and can simulate and predict the future situation of the city, and can also understand the mechanism of the action of various types of land use in the city.
【作者單位】： 華中科技大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;武漢市國土資源和規(guī)劃信息中心;
【基金】：國家“十二五”科技支撐計(jì)劃(2013BAJ05B02)
【分類號】：F293.2;F224

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