【摘要】：摘要：鐵路是國家的重要基礎設施,在綜合運輸系統(tǒng)中起著主干作用,是適合于我國經濟地理特性和人們收入水平的重要運輸方法。鐵路機車車輛是鐵路運輸供給實現的物質基礎。但目前作為運輸載體的鐵路機車車輛仍存在著一定程度的購置不合理、閑置、效益低下等,缺乏裝備購置的科學的評價體系。 在市場經濟條件下,鐵道部門一方面滿足運能需求,另一方面也要優(yōu)化社會效益。根據購置的對象不同,機車車輛主要分為機車、客車、貨車三類。本文主要預測方法是運用線性回歸法,灰色預測法得出結果,再利用組合預測進行加權取值。取得的值為鐵路機車車輛的總擁有量,通過對歷史保有量,設備更新改造的分析最終得出合理的預測值。 預測以鐵路機車為例,分析2020年營業(yè)里程、客車周轉量、貨車周轉量取值代入線性回歸方程,同時利用灰色預測和組合預測計算2020年鐵路機車總擁有量�？紤]機車使用壽命,分析鐵路機車更新淘汰量,最終計算鐵路機車的購置量,得出機車車輛合理的年均購置需求。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: railway is an important national infrastructure, which plays an important role in the integrated transportation system. It is an important transportation method suitable for the economic and geographical characteristics of our country and the income level of people. Railway locomotives and rolling stock are the material basis for the realization of railway transportation supply. But at present, the railway locomotive and rolling stock, as the carrier of transportation, still have some unreasonable purchase, idle, low benefit and so on, and lack of scientific evaluation system of equipment purchase. Under the condition of market economy, the railway department should satisfy the demand of transportation capacity on the one hand, and optimize the social benefit on the other. According to the object of purchase, locomotive and rolling stock are divided into three categories: locomotive, passenger car and freight car. In this paper, the main prediction method is to use linear regression method, grey forecasting method to get the results, and then use the combined forecast to weight the value. The obtained value is the total ownership of railway locomotive and rolling stock. Taking railway locomotives as an example, this paper analyzes the business mileage, the turnover of passenger cars and the turnover of freight cars in 2020. The linear regression equation is used to calculate the total ownership of railway locomotives in 2020 by using grey forecast and combined forecast. Considering the service life of locomotives, the replacement and elimination of railway locomotives are analyzed, and the purchase quantity of railway locomotives is calculated finally, and the reasonable annual purchase demand of locomotive and rolling stock is obtained.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F532

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本文編號：2319520