【摘要】：本文在梳理國際國內(nèi)項目風(fēng)險管理研究現(xiàn)狀,綜述項目風(fēng)險管理理論的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合考慮鄆城縣煤化工物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管理現(xiàn)狀,特別是相對落后地區(qū)政策影響的因素,根據(jù)工作表法識別了鄆城縣煤化工物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險,并采用模糊綜合評價的方法對鄆城縣煤化工物流園項目風(fēng)險進(jìn)行綜合評估,根據(jù)綜合評估結(jié)果產(chǎn)業(yè)政策環(huán)境風(fēng)險較大的結(jié)果,提出鄆城縣煤化工物流園項目風(fēng)險預(yù)防、風(fēng)險分擔(dān)與風(fēng)險削減措施。具體研究框架如下。首先,本文針對物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估的理論進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)梳理,總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估的研究現(xiàn)狀,為物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估奠定堅實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)。物流園建設(shè)項目在國內(nèi)方興未艾,國家對物流業(yè)的重視程度與日俱增,本文對物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估的理論研究進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)梳理,為同類項目研究提供了參考。其次,本文構(gòu)建了煤化工物流園項目風(fēng)險評估體系。針對鄆城縣煤化工物流園建設(shè)項目各個環(huán)節(jié)進(jìn)行分析,分析識別項目存在的風(fēng)險因素,采用解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型構(gòu)建了鄆城縣煤化工物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估的指標(biāo)體系,確定了6個二級指標(biāo)和19個三級指標(biāo),再次基礎(chǔ)上利用層次分析方法對各個指標(biāo)進(jìn)行賦權(quán),然后結(jié)合專家打分對鄆城縣煤化工物流園項目進(jìn)行模糊綜合評分,得出風(fēng)險值。并對評價指標(biāo)體系中二級指標(biāo)與三級指標(biāo)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險值分解,從而得出模糊綜合評價的進(jìn)一步分析。最后,本文針對鄆城縣煤化工物流園建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估結(jié)果提出了風(fēng)險防范的對策和建議。對規(guī)劃階段與營運(yùn)管理階段不同的風(fēng)險因素提出風(fēng)險管理措施,規(guī)劃階段,要從本地的實(shí)際物流需求出發(fā),先建立試點(diǎn),一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)積累業(yè)務(wù)量,慢慢推廣,不斷擴(kuò)大。營運(yùn)管理階段,要制定切實(shí)可行的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃,制定企業(yè)風(fēng)險管理條例,成立風(fēng)險管理部門,設(shè)置風(fēng)險管理信息系統(tǒng),科學(xué)有效的管控風(fēng)險,并投保相關(guān)保險,將潛在損失降到最低。同時,要不斷提高人員素質(zhì)和服務(wù)質(zhì)量。
[Abstract]:On the basis of summarizing the theory of project risk management and combing the present situation of international and domestic project risk management, this paper synthetically considers the present situation of risk management in Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park construction project, especially the influence factors of relative backward area policy. According to the worksheet method, the project risk of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park is identified, and the project risk of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the result of comprehensive evaluation, the paper puts forward the measures of risk prevention, risk sharing and risk reduction in Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park project. The specific research framework is as follows. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the theory of risk assessment of logistics park construction project, summarizes the research status of logistics park construction project risk assessment at home and abroad, and lays a solid theoretical foundation for logistics park construction project risk assessment. The logistics park construction project is in the ascendant in our country, the country pays more and more attention to the logistics industry. This paper systematically combs the theory research of the logistics park construction project risk assessment, provides the reference for the similar project research. Secondly, this paper constructs the project risk assessment system of coal chemical logistics park. This paper analyzes every link of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project, analyzes the risk factors existing in the project, and constructs the index system of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project risk assessment by using the explanatory structure model. Six second-class indexes and 19 third-grade indexes were determined, and then each index was weighted by AHP method, then the project of Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park was scored with experts' score, and the risk value was obtained. The risk value of the secondary index and the third grade index in the evaluation index system is decomposed, and the further analysis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is obtained. Finally, according to the risk assessment results of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of risk prevention. This paper puts forward risk management measures for different risk factors in planning stage and operation management stage. In the planning stage, starting from the actual local logistics demand, we should first set up pilot projects, accumulate business little by little, and gradually popularize and expand. In the operational management phase, it is necessary to formulate feasible business plans, formulate enterprise risk management regulations, set up risk management departments, set up risk management information systems, scientifically and effectively manage risks, and insure related insurance, Minimize potential losses. At the same time, to constantly improve the quality of personnel and service quality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.27

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