基于CA-Markov模型的老河口市土地利用格局變化研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-12 17:33
【摘要】：近年來,土地利用格局的變化隨經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的快速發(fā)展而愈發(fā)顯著,人地之間的矛盾日益突出。近幾年來老河口市在全市人民的努力下經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了飛速的發(fā)展,隨之而來的是農(nóng)用地面積的減少,糧食產(chǎn)量的降低、生活質(zhì)量的下降、生態(tài)環(huán)境的破壞,這與老河口市希冀的可持續(xù)發(fā)展背道而馳的,這使得土地利用格局的研究就顯得格外重要。我國近年來,不論從研究范圍還是研究方法、模型上,土地利用／土地覆被研究不斷推進(jìn),關(guān)于土地利用/土地覆被變化模型研究中,CA-Markov模型綜合了CA模型和Markov模型兩者的優(yōu)勢,擁有十分強大的空間預(yù)測能力與預(yù)測數(shù)量變化能力,因此,在土地利用預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用范圍不斷擴(kuò)大。 本文以老河口市為研究對象,以該研究區(qū)2005年、2010年兩個時期土地利用矢量數(shù)據(jù)成果,模擬預(yù)測未來土地利用變化格局。首先,運用ArcGIS10.0軟件對兩期數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行各土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)變化分析,繼而通過景觀動態(tài)度、信息熵等指數(shù)研究土地利用數(shù)量變化；并運用Fragstats4.0軟件,分析老河口市在研究期間的景觀格局指數(shù)的變化及其特征,之后探討了該研究區(qū)土地利用格局演變與自然、社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)等影響因素之間的關(guān)系,制定出轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則、土地利用類型的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和適宜性圖集,在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用IDRISI Andes15.0軟件中的CA-Markov模型,對2020年老河口市的土地利用格局進(jìn)行預(yù)測,最后提出能夠促進(jìn)該區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的措施與意見。本文的研究目的是分析老河口市土地利用的現(xiàn)狀以及變化規(guī)律,探討促使這種格局演化的形成及變化的影響因素,形成CA-Markov模型模擬所需要的轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)則,進(jìn)而對2020年老河口市的土地利用格局進(jìn)行預(yù)測模擬,提出能夠促進(jìn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的建議。 本文研究的主要結(jié)論如下： (1)老河口市土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)格局在2005-2010年研究期間變化顯著,面積增加程度最高的是城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地,其次為交通水利用地。耕地為主的農(nóng)用地較少程度最高,水域及自然保留地面積也有所減少,但土地利用系統(tǒng)的方向趨于有序。 (2)老河口市景觀格局在2005-2010年研究期間變化較為顯著,通過兩期景觀指數(shù)的分析,城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地景觀和耕地景觀類型的優(yōu)勢斑塊作用明顯,兩者的景觀指數(shù)反映出景觀整體的特性,由于在研究期間城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地和耕地景觀的景觀格局趨于多樣化和破碎化程度較增加,所以老河口景觀格局整體趨于多樣化、景觀的破碎化程度加深。 (3)為了老河口市2020年的土地利用格局的模擬預(yù)測提供轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,本文分析影響土地利用格局變化各種因素分析表明,對于老河口市研究區(qū)而言,造成老河口市景觀格局顯著變化的原因主要有自然因素中的坡度、行政中心和交通線路；以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素主要包括,伴隨著人均收入水平提高過程中非農(nóng)人口的增長、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展以及相關(guān)政策法規(guī)等因素�；谏鲜鲇绊懸蜃�,本文定性和定量的對各影響因子進(jìn)行分析,從而為模擬圖做充足的準(zhǔn)備。 (4)用2010年的實際土地利用格局圖與CA-Markov模型模擬老河口市2010年的土地利用格局模擬圖作對比,通過Kappa系數(shù)來進(jìn)行精度驗證,來檢驗該模型的預(yù)測效果,若Kappa系數(shù)較低說明前期數(shù)據(jù)的收集以及數(shù)據(jù)的分析存在很大的誤差,若Kappa系數(shù)較大,精度較高,預(yù)測結(jié)果有足夠的可信度,再來模擬預(yù)測老河口市2020年的土地利用格局。 (5)針對老河口市土地利用格局的預(yù)測分析結(jié)果,本文提出促進(jìn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的幾點建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, the change of land use pattern has become more and more remarkable, and the contradiction between people and land has become increasingly prominent.In recent years, the economy of Laohekou City has developed rapidly with the efforts of the people of the whole city, followed by the reduction of the area of agricultural land, the reduction of grain production, the decline of the quality of life, and the ecological environment. In recent years, no matter from the research scope or the research method, the research on land use / land cover model has been advancing. In the research on land use / land cover change model, CA-Marko V model combines the advantages of CA model and Markov model, and has a very strong ability of spatial prediction and forecasting quantitative change. Therefore, the application of V model in land use forecasting is expanding.
This paper takes Laohekou City as the research object and takes the land use vector data of the study area in 2005 and 2010 as the research object to simulate and predict the future land use change pattern. By using quantitative change and Fragstats 4.0 software, the change and characteristics of landscape pattern index in Laohekou city during the study period were analyzed. Then the relationship between land use pattern evolution and natural, social and economic factors in the study area was discussed. The conversion rules, transfer matrix and suitability map of land use types were worked out. On this basis, the CA-Markov model of IDRISI Andes 15.0 software is used to predict the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020. Finally, the measures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of the region are put forward. The formation of evolution and the influencing factors of change form the transfer rules needed by CA-Markov model simulation, and then forecast and simulate the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020, and put forward some suggestions to promote sustainable development.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) The land use structure pattern of Laohekou City changed significantly during the study period from 2005 to 2010. The highest increase of land area was urban and rural construction land, followed by traffic and water use land.
(2) Landscape pattern of Laohekou City changed significantly during the study period from 2005 to 2010. Through the analysis of landscape indices, the dominant patches of urban and rural construction land landscape and cultivated land landscape types played an obvious role. The landscape indices of the two types reflected the overall characteristics of the landscape, because of the landscape pattern of urban and rural construction land and cultivated land landscape during the study period. The situation tends to be more diversified and fragmented, so the overall landscape pattern of the old estuary tends to be diversified and the landscape fragmentation deepens.
(3) In order to provide conversion rules for the simulation and prediction of land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020, the analysis of various factors affecting the change of land use pattern shows that for Laohekou Research Area, the main reasons for the significant change of landscape pattern of Laohekou City are the slope of natural factors, administrative center and traffic routes. And the social and economic factors mainly include the growth of non-farm population, the development of social economy and related policies and regulations in the process of per capita income increase.
(4) Using the actual land use pattern map of 2010 and CA-Markov model to simulate the land use pattern simulation map of Laohekou City in 2010, and verifying the accuracy of the model by Kappa coefficient to verify the prediction effect. If the Kappa coefficient is low, it shows that there is a great error in data collection and data analysis. If Kappa coefficient is low, there is a big error in data collection and data analysis. The coefficient is bigger, the precision is higher, the forecast result has enough credibility, then simulates and forecasts the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020.
(5) According to the forecasting results of land use pattern in Laohekou City, this paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F301.2
本文編號：2179789
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, the change of land use pattern has become more and more remarkable, and the contradiction between people and land has become increasingly prominent.In recent years, the economy of Laohekou City has developed rapidly with the efforts of the people of the whole city, followed by the reduction of the area of agricultural land, the reduction of grain production, the decline of the quality of life, and the ecological environment. In recent years, no matter from the research scope or the research method, the research on land use / land cover model has been advancing. In the research on land use / land cover change model, CA-Marko V model combines the advantages of CA model and Markov model, and has a very strong ability of spatial prediction and forecasting quantitative change. Therefore, the application of V model in land use forecasting is expanding.
This paper takes Laohekou City as the research object and takes the land use vector data of the study area in 2005 and 2010 as the research object to simulate and predict the future land use change pattern. By using quantitative change and Fragstats 4.0 software, the change and characteristics of landscape pattern index in Laohekou city during the study period were analyzed. Then the relationship between land use pattern evolution and natural, social and economic factors in the study area was discussed. The conversion rules, transfer matrix and suitability map of land use types were worked out. On this basis, the CA-Markov model of IDRISI Andes 15.0 software is used to predict the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020. Finally, the measures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of the region are put forward. The formation of evolution and the influencing factors of change form the transfer rules needed by CA-Markov model simulation, and then forecast and simulate the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020, and put forward some suggestions to promote sustainable development.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) The land use structure pattern of Laohekou City changed significantly during the study period from 2005 to 2010. The highest increase of land area was urban and rural construction land, followed by traffic and water use land.
(2) Landscape pattern of Laohekou City changed significantly during the study period from 2005 to 2010. Through the analysis of landscape indices, the dominant patches of urban and rural construction land landscape and cultivated land landscape types played an obvious role. The landscape indices of the two types reflected the overall characteristics of the landscape, because of the landscape pattern of urban and rural construction land and cultivated land landscape during the study period. The situation tends to be more diversified and fragmented, so the overall landscape pattern of the old estuary tends to be diversified and the landscape fragmentation deepens.
(3) In order to provide conversion rules for the simulation and prediction of land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020, the analysis of various factors affecting the change of land use pattern shows that for Laohekou Research Area, the main reasons for the significant change of landscape pattern of Laohekou City are the slope of natural factors, administrative center and traffic routes. And the social and economic factors mainly include the growth of non-farm population, the development of social economy and related policies and regulations in the process of per capita income increase.
(4) Using the actual land use pattern map of 2010 and CA-Markov model to simulate the land use pattern simulation map of Laohekou City in 2010, and verifying the accuracy of the model by Kappa coefficient to verify the prediction effect. If the Kappa coefficient is low, it shows that there is a great error in data collection and data analysis. If Kappa coefficient is low, there is a big error in data collection and data analysis. The coefficient is bigger, the precision is higher, the forecast result has enough credibility, then simulates and forecasts the land use pattern of Laohekou City in 2020.
(5) According to the forecasting results of land use pattern in Laohekou City, this paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F301.2
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