【摘要】：1929年—1933年的世界性經(jīng)濟危機使人們對“看不見的手”產(chǎn)生了質(zhì)疑,西方古典經(jīng)濟學派信奉的“貨幣中性”理論開始受到挑戰(zhàn)。經(jīng)過各經(jīng)濟學派長期的理論爭辯,加之眾多實證研究結(jié)果的支持,“貨幣是否中性”之爭得以平息。國內(nèi)外學者們一致認為：貨幣政策短期有效,長期中性。近年來我國一直將房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)作為貨幣政策調(diào)控的重點對象,但是房價的不斷攀升使得貨幣政策對于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)調(diào)控的有效性受到質(zhì)疑。 本文從房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資水平的角度出發(fā),引入貨幣政策,研究貨幣政策對我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的有效性。本文選取2003年第一季度到2013年第三季度A股房地產(chǎn)上市公司的數(shù)據(jù),研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)存在顯著的投資—現(xiàn)金流敏感性,融資約束程度高的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)具有更高的投資—現(xiàn)金流敏感性；貨幣政策對我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的投資水平具有顯著影響,貨幣政策越寬松,投資水平越高；貨幣政策通過影響企業(yè)的融資約束程度進而影響其投資水平,寬松的貨幣政策會降低企業(yè)投資—現(xiàn)金流敏感性,緩解融資約束程度,緊縮的貨幣政策作用反之。研究結(jié)果同時表明,貨幣政策的作用時滯為三個季度。 本文是對貨幣政策微觀效果及其傳導機制的研究,為貨幣政策微觀傳導機制提供了相關(guān)的實證支持。同時,本文的實證結(jié)果可以為我國貨幣政策的制定、資本市場投資者的決策提供一定的參考。另外,本文創(chuàng)新性地引入社會融資總額作為貨幣政策寬松程度的衡量指標,為今后貨幣政策相關(guān)的實證研究提供了一個新的角度。
[Abstract]:The world economic crisis from 1929 to 1933 made people question the "invisible hand", and the "monetary neutrality" theory believed in by the western classical economic school began to be challenged. After a long period of theoretical debate among various economic schools and the support of many empirical studies, the debate on whether money is neutral can be quelled. Domestic and foreign scholars agree that monetary policy is effective in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. In recent years, the real estate industry has been the focus of monetary policy control in China, but the rising housing prices make the effectiveness of monetary policy for the real estate industry to be questioned. From the point of view of investment level of real estate enterprises, this paper introduces monetary policy to study the effectiveness of monetary policy on real estate industry in China. From the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2013, this paper selects the data of A-share real estate listed companies, and finds that there is significant investment-cash flow sensitivity in China's real estate industry. The real estate enterprises with high degree of financing constraint have higher sensitivity of investment-cash flow, monetary policy has significant influence on the investment level of Chinese real estate enterprises, the looser the monetary policy, the higher the investment level. Monetary policy can reduce the sensitivity of investment-cash flow and ease the degree of financing constraint by influencing the degree of financing constraint and then the level of investment. The results also show that the time lag of monetary policy is three quarters. This paper studies the microcosmic effect of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, which provides relevant empirical support for monetary policy micro-transmission mechanism. At the same time, the empirical results of this paper can provide a certain reference for the formulation of monetary policy and the decision of capital market investors. In addition, this paper innovatively introduces the total amount of social financing as a measure of monetary policy easing, which provides a new perspective for the empirical research on monetary policy in the future.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

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