發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-01 20:35

  本文選題：經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求 + 宏觀環(huán)境　； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，具有巨大的行業(yè)帶動(dòng)性，其資金量級(jí)大、生產(chǎn)周期長、受政策影響明顯的特點(diǎn)也決定了其營運(yùn)資金管理的難度和重要性�？焖僦苻D(zhuǎn)是市場經(jīng)營的王道，資金鏈斷裂是所有企業(yè)的噩夢，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)更應(yīng)重視流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制。資金的籌集對(duì)資金需求的保障能力，是企業(yè)流動(dòng)性危機(jī)存在與否的根源。對(duì)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的界定和預(yù)測，可以使房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)有效地監(jiān)控房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的項(xiàng)目協(xié)同及資金使用情況，及時(shí)多渠道籌集資金，避免資金鏈斷裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提供了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的新工具；其他利益相關(guān)者如銀行也可以據(jù)此評(píng)估企業(yè)的信用狀況及經(jīng)營效率，決定授信額度。 房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的預(yù)測首先應(yīng)建立在對(duì)營運(yùn)資金需求的科學(xué)界定上，從資金來源及運(yùn)用的角度，將企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為界定為籌資活動(dòng)和營業(yè)活動(dòng)；籌資活動(dòng)為資金的籌集，服務(wù)于營業(yè)活動(dòng)的價(jià)值創(chuàng)造行為；營業(yè)活動(dòng)為資金運(yùn)用，包括經(jīng)營活動(dòng)和投資活動(dòng)。而經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求界定為經(jīng)營性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)和經(jīng)營性流動(dòng)負(fù)債的差額，是為了滿足經(jīng)營循環(huán)需要，扣除了經(jīng)營性融資之外，真正需要從外部籌集的資金。然后從環(huán)境維度、組織維度和管理維度分析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的影響因素，包括通貨膨脹、宏觀調(diào)控政策等環(huán)境因素的影響，企業(yè)的規(guī)模、成長性及企業(yè)性質(zhì)等組織層面因素的影響，以及資金管理模式、供應(yīng)鏈管理方式、業(yè)務(wù)流程水平和信息化水平等管理因素的影響。宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策通過影響經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期、影響資本成本、影響信息環(huán)境來影響微觀企業(yè)經(jīng)營；戰(zhàn)略性管理因素影響經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的量級(jí)，戰(zhàn)術(shù)性管理因素影響經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的精度，戰(zhàn)略管理模式通過信息共享、資源共享、互信機(jī)制、決策效力來影響經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金的需求量，而戰(zhàn)略落地的執(zhí)行精度取決于信息化契合度、人力資源質(zhì)量和行政流程周期的影響，，通過影響執(zhí)行效率進(jìn)而影響資金周轉(zhuǎn)效率。 基于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的影響因素和影響機(jī)理分析，建立了經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求預(yù)測的概念模型。從經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的三個(gè)渠道分別建立預(yù)測模型；預(yù)測模型的使用基于各房地產(chǎn)公司自身的特點(diǎn)，考慮了宏觀環(huán)境因素及組織管理因素對(duì)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求的影響，選取經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證回歸系數(shù)。最后以萬科為例，進(jìn)行了經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求預(yù)測的案例分析。案例表明，生產(chǎn)渠道和營銷渠道具有較好的預(yù)測效果，而采購渠道由于土地儲(chǔ)備預(yù)測的政策偶然性及企業(yè)信息的可獲得性，規(guī)模增長意義較弱、預(yù)測精度較差。預(yù)測的意義在于應(yīng)變，并發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)注點(diǎn)、加強(qiáng)管理，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營運(yùn)資金需求預(yù)測研究提供了營運(yùn)資金需求的真實(shí)視角、影響因素及影響機(jī)理的層次分析以及概念模型的參考借鑒，以期對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)營運(yùn)資金管理與預(yù)算管理和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的融合提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy , has huge industry mobility , its capital magnitude is large , production period is long , the policy influence obvious characteristic also decides its operation fund management difficulty and importance .
Other stakeholders , such as banks , can also assess the credit status and operational efficiency of the enterprise and determine the credit line .

The forecast of the operating capital requirement of real estate industry should firstly be established on the scientific definition of the demand for working capital , and the economic behavior of the enterprise should be defined as financing activities and business activities from the source of funds and the angle of application ;
The fund - raising activities are the mobilization of funds and the value - creation behavior of the service in business activities ;
Operating activities are funds , including operating activities and investment activities . The operational capital requirement of the operation activities is defined as the difference between the operating liquidity and the operational flow liabilities . In order to meet the business cycle needs , it is necessary to raise funds from the outside .
Strategic management factors influence the demand of operating fund of operating activities , and the tactical management factors influence the precision of operating fund demand . The strategic management model affects the demand of operating funds through information sharing , resource sharing , mutual trust mechanism and decision - making effect . The implementation precision of strategic landing depends on the impact of information contract degree , human resource quality and administrative process cycle , and the efficiency of capital turnover is affected by influencing the implementation efficiency .

Based on the analysis of the influencing factors and influencing mechanism of the operating fund demand of the real estate industry , a conceptual model of the operational fund demand forecast is established , and a forecasting model is established from three channels of the operational capital requirement of the operating activities .
Based on the characteristics of each real estate company , the forecast model is based on the characteristics of each real estate company . The empirical data empirical regression coefficient is selected .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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