本文選題：農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性 + 綜合評價��； 參考：《中南大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：摘要：農(nóng)村金融是新時期我國金融改革的重要內(nèi)容之一,是實現(xiàn)我國農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展及廣大農(nóng)民生活水平提升的關鍵所在,同時對于我國整體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展起著重要作用。如何進一步深化我國農(nóng)村金融體制的改革,維護我國農(nóng)村金融的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展成為當前我國重要的一項重大研究課題。本文構建了農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性的指標體系和測度模型,并對湖南地區(qū)農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性進行了測度。基于綜合評價結果,重點分析了農(nóng)村金融效率和金融發(fā)展規(guī)模對金融穩(wěn)定性的影響。 基于農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性的內(nèi)涵和金融穩(wěn)定相關理論,從金融環(huán)境、金融基礎和金融機構三個層面對農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性的指標體系進行構建。進一步,結合數(shù)據(jù)的客觀特性,利用因子分析得到對應的客觀權重。同時,采用群決策層次分析法得到指標的主觀權重,并利用乘法歸一原理得到綜合權重。以湖南省為例,對其1997-2012年的農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性程度進行了測度研究。結果顯示,湖南省農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步上升趨勢,但2009年出現(xiàn)短暫的下降,這可能源于2008年金融危機的滯后影響。 基于湖南省農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性評價結果,利用誤差修正模型實證檢驗了農(nóng)村金融效率與金融發(fā)展規(guī)模對農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性的影響。結果顯示,農(nóng)村金融效率和農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展規(guī)模均與農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性存在長期協(xié)整關系。此外,農(nóng)村金融效率和發(fā)展規(guī)模是農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性的單向格蘭杰原因,且資本邊際生產(chǎn)率與農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定性存在雙向格蘭杰因果關系。 結合實證結果,構建了湖南地區(qū)農(nóng)村金融穩(wěn)定的維護機制。其中,維護機制包括產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新機制、信用機制、監(jiān)管機制、金融法律機制和經(jīng)營管理機制。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: rural finance is one of the important contents of China's financial reform in the new period. It is the key to realize the healthy and sustainable development of rural economy and the improvement of peasants' living standard. At the same time for the overall economic development of our country plays an important role. How to further deepen the reform of rural financial system and maintain the stable development of rural finance in China has become an important research topic. This paper constructs the index system and measurement model of rural financial stability, and measures the stability of rural finance in Hunan. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results, this paper analyzes the impact of rural financial efficiency and financial development scale on financial stability. Based on the connotation of rural financial stability and related theories of financial stability, the index system of rural financial stability is constructed from three aspects: financial environment, financial foundation and financial institutions. Furthermore, combining the objective characteristics of the data, the corresponding objective weights are obtained by factor analysis. At the same time, the subjective weight of the index is obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process of group decision, and the comprehensive weight is obtained by the principle of multiplicative normalization. Taking Hunan Province as an example, the paper measures the degree of rural financial stability from 1997 to 2012. The results showed that the rural financial stability in Hunan Province showed a steady upward trend, but there was a brief decline in 2009, which may be due to the lagging impact of the 2008 financial crisis. Based on the evaluation results of rural financial stability in Hunan Province, the effects of rural financial efficiency and scale of financial development on rural financial stability are tested by error correction model. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the rural financial efficiency and the scale of rural financial development and the stability of rural finance. In addition, rural financial efficiency and development scale are the one-way Granger reasons of rural financial stability, and there is a two-way Granger causality between capital marginal productivity and rural financial stability. Based on the empirical results, the maintenance mechanism of rural financial stability in Hunan is constructed. Among them, maintenance mechanism includes product innovation mechanism, credit mechanism, supervision mechanism, financial legal mechanism and management mechanism.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.35

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