本文選題：建設(shè)項目 + 風險管理　； 參考：《吉林大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛，在房地產(chǎn)項目建設(shè)過程中，難免會遇到來自各個方面的風險因素的影響，為了規(guī)避和降低這些風險因素對于項目實施的影響，做好項目風險管理越來越重要。隨著項目管理理論體系的不斷完善，國內(nèi)外風險管理相關(guān)理論方法也在進一步發(fā)展中，逐漸發(fā)展成為一門綜合性學科。然而，我國在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項目風險管理的應(yīng)用上還處于起步階段，相對于國外發(fā)達國家還存在一定的差距，因此，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)必須認真審視和充分認識到項目風險管理在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項目中的重要價值。 本文以A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目為研究對象，運用項目風險管理理論和方法對其進行了實證分析，主要研究內(nèi)容如下：首先，闡述了本文的選題背景、研究意義、國內(nèi)外風險管理研究現(xiàn)狀，介紹了A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目基本情況，提出了本文的研究方法、研究內(nèi)容及結(jié)構(gòu)框架；其次，闡述了項目管理、項目風險管理、項目風險分析方法等理論基礎(chǔ)；再次，識別出A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目決策階段、準備階段、實施階段、經(jīng)營階段存在的主要風險因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立了A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目風險評價指標體系，運用基于層次分析法的模糊綜合評價方法對項目風險做出評價，經(jīng)過一級模糊綜合評價、二級模糊綜合評價、項目風險屬性識別，最終確定該項目的風險程度為一般；最后，提出A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目風險應(yīng)對措施，在項目決策階段，要強化市場調(diào)研活動、采用科學方法確定項目估算、加強市場分析和預(yù)測、做好財務(wù)分析和現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測、健全風險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；在項目準備階段，要重視項目設(shè)計方案的經(jīng)濟分析、做好項目施工招標工作、加強項目施工合同管理、強化與各方溝通交流、做好項目實施前的市場預(yù)測；在項目實施階段，要加強施工安全管理和特種設(shè)備的檢測、有效控制工程變更、及時支付工程價款、工程量變化的價款確定與調(diào)整、核實工程變更和簽證、協(xié)調(diào)工期、質(zhì)量和成本的合理關(guān)系、注重檔案管理并建立預(yù)測機制；在項目經(jīng)營階段，要做好競爭項目的調(diào)研分析、加強市場趨向和政策預(yù)測研究、選擇合理的營銷模式。 本文的創(chuàng)新點在于運用項目風險管理理論和方法對A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項目進行了實證分析，，在識別項目四個階段風險因素的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了項目風險評價指標體系，運用基于層次分析法的模糊綜合評價方法對項目風險做出評價，判定該項目的風險程度為一般，進而有針對性的提出了具體的項目風險應(yīng)對措施，可為項目建設(shè)企業(yè)實施風險管理提供理論方法指導和案例經(jīng)驗參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid development of the real estate industry, in the process of real estate project construction, it is inevitable to meet the impact of various risk factors, in order to avoid and reduce the impact of these risk factors on the implementation of the project. Project risk management is becoming more and more important. With the continuous improvement of the project management theory system, the related theories and methods of risk management at home and abroad are developing further, and gradually develop into a comprehensive subject. However, the application of risk management in real estate construction projects in China is still in its infancy, and there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries, so, Real estate development enterprises must carefully examine and fully realize the important value of project risk management in real estate construction projects. This paper takes the construction project of A Garden District as the research object, uses the project risk management theory and method to carry on the empirical analysis to it, the main research content is as follows: first, elaborated this article the topic background, the research significance, The present situation of risk management research at home and abroad, the basic situation of the construction project of Garden A, the research method, the research content and the structure frame are put forward. Secondly, the project management, the project risk management, the risk management of the project are introduced. Third, identify the main risk factors in the decision stage, preparation stage, implementation stage and management stage of the construction project of Garden A, and then identify the main risk factors in the stage of project risk analysis. The risk evaluation index system of A garden community construction project is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the project risk. After the first grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate the project risk. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to deal with the risk of the construction project in Garden A area. In the decision-making stage of the project, the market research activities should be strengthened, and the project estimation should be determined by scientific method. Strengthening market analysis and forecasting, making good financial analysis and cash flow forecasting, and improving the risk early warning system; in the stage of project preparation, we should attach importance to the economic analysis of project design schemes, do a good job in bidding for construction projects, and strengthen the management of project construction contracts. Strengthen communication and communication with all parties, make market forecast before project implementation, strengthen construction safety management and special equipment inspection, effectively control project changes, and pay project price promptly, during the project implementation phase, To determine and adjust the price of project quantity change, to verify the project change and visa, to coordinate the reasonable relationship between time limit, quality and cost, to pay attention to file management and to establish a forecasting mechanism, to do well the investigation and analysis of competitive projects during the project management phase, Strengthen the research of market trend and policy forecast and choose reasonable marketing model. The innovation of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to make an empirical analysis on the construction project of Garden A, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors in the four stages of the project, the index system of project risk evaluation is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to evaluate the risk of the project, and the risk degree of the project is judged as general, and then the concrete measures to deal with the project risk are put forward. It can provide theoretical guidance and case reference for project construction enterprises to implement risk management.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU71;F299.233.4

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