本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化 + 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《自動化學(xué)報》2015年06期

【摘要】：我國正處于城鎮(zhèn)化的快速發(fā)展階段.然而,在城鎮(zhèn)化的過程中,決策者常常面臨這樣的問題:一個城市的資源能支撐多大的人口規(guī)模?對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行怎樣的調(diào)整才能最大化釋放人口承載力?下一年度的城市國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(Gross domestic product,GDP)增幅定為多少合理?GDP增幅與居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)(Consumer price index,CPI)、就業(yè)的定量關(guān)系如何?財政投資應(yīng)投向哪些領(lǐng)域才能最大程度地提高居民滿意度?哪些決策影響城市協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?等等.如何在城鎮(zhèn)化的大背景下化解上述難題,做好城市發(fā)展的頂層規(guī)劃與設(shè)計,是一類重大而復(fù)雜的難題.針對此類問題,本文采用系統(tǒng)科學(xué)和智能方法,定性定量相結(jié)合,首先建立城市GDP、財政收入等關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)的智能預(yù)報模型以及GDP增幅與CPI、就業(yè)的定量關(guān)系模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上建立城市人口承載力與城市協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的優(yōu)化決策模型,并針對我國某大型城市的若干重要決策場景進(jìn)行了案例分析.結(jié)果表明,采用系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與智能方法,是研究和解決該類難題的新穎且行之有效的方法,相關(guān)成果有助于城市決策者提高決策水平,實現(xiàn)定性定量相結(jié)合的科學(xué)決策.
[Abstract]:Our country is in the rapid development stage of urbanization. However, in the process of urbanization, policy makers often face the question: how large a population can be supported by a city's resources? How to adjust the industrial structure in order to maximize the release of population carrying capacity? What is the reasonable rate of GDP growth for the next year?. What is the quantitative relationship between the GDP growth rate and the Consumer price Index (CPI)?. What is the quantitative relationship between employment and employment?. In what areas should financial investment be directed to maximize the satisfaction of residents? What decisions affect the coordinated development of cities? Wait. How to solve the above problems under the background of urbanization and how to do well the top planning and design of urban development is a kind of important and complex problems. Aiming at this kind of problem, this paper adopts the system science and intelligent method, combines qualitative and quantitative, establishes the intelligent forecast model of the key index such as city's GDP, fiscal revenue, and the quantitative relation model of GDP increase and CPI, employment, etc. On this basis, the optimal decision-making model of urban population carrying capacity and urban coordinated development is established, and some important decision-making scenarios of a large city in China are analyzed by case study. The results show that using system science and intelligent method is a novel and effective method to study and solve this kind of difficult problem. The related results can help urban decision makers to improve the level of decision-making and realize the scientific decision combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)自動化系;
【基金】：中國工程院重點咨詢項目(2013-XZ-25)資助~~
【分類號】：F299.21

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

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本文編號：1914720