本文選題：轉(zhuǎn)型期 + 失業(yè)影響因素　； 參考：《中共陜西省委黨校》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：失業(yè)問題既是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的焦點亦是經(jīng)濟學(xué)者們研究的熱點，我國在這方面的研究，大多局限于對奧肯定律的驗證以及某個因素對失業(yè)率影響的分析，實證分析所用到的數(shù)據(jù)大都來自于《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》公布的城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率。本文將研究時間定位于1992年以來的轉(zhuǎn)型期，由于經(jīng)濟社會的轉(zhuǎn)型及特殊性對失業(yè)的影響，使研究失業(yè)問題變得更為復(fù)雜。因此，本文以轉(zhuǎn)型期失業(yè)影響因素的研究為核心，共分為七部分進行闡述，，具體結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第一部分為引言。主要介紹本文的選題背景、研究的意義、思路和方法。 第二部分為失業(yè)問題及影響因素理論研究。主要闡釋失業(yè)的基本概念和類型、失業(yè)影響因素的相關(guān)理論。具體包括對西方失業(yè)理論、馬克思經(jīng)典作家失業(yè)理論和國內(nèi)外關(guān)于失業(yè)影響因素研究的論述和比較分析，了解目前專家學(xué)者對于相關(guān)問題研究的現(xiàn)狀。 第三部分為轉(zhuǎn)型期中國失業(yè)問題的現(xiàn)狀及特點分析。首先，描述中國失業(yè)問題的現(xiàn)狀，歸納轉(zhuǎn)型期中國失業(yè)問題的特點；然后，結(jié)合前人研究的成果，通過計算得出包含城鄉(xiāng)隱性失業(yè)在內(nèi)的真實總失業(yè)率，以此說明我國目前失業(yè)的嚴重程度。 第四部分為轉(zhuǎn)型期奧肯定律在中國適用性的驗證。首先，本文用《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》公布的城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率與經(jīng)濟增長率進行相關(guān)性的直觀描述，結(jié)果顯示，由于中國經(jīng)濟不符合奧肯定律成立的四個前提條件，確實存在“高失業(yè)高經(jīng)濟增長”的悖論。然后，為了剔除數(shù)據(jù)失信帶來的誤差，本文運用第三部分計算得到的真實總失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析，但是回歸結(jié)果的擬合程度不高，經(jīng)濟增長率與失業(yè)率變動的相關(guān)性很小。最后，考慮到我國經(jīng)濟的階段性特征，引入一個虛擬時間變量進行實證分析，結(jié)果仍舊不顯著。 第五部分為轉(zhuǎn)型期中國失業(yè)影響因素的實證分析。在前面分析的基礎(chǔ)上，本文將經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、固定資產(chǎn)投資、經(jīng)常項目順差、居民消費、通貨膨脹以及最低工資等6個因素納入奧肯定律標準化模型中進行實證研究。結(jié)果表明，雖然整體上方程擬合程度有所改善，而且解釋變量與失業(yè)率變動之間存在著長期的均衡關(guān)系，但是，GDPI和GDPc沒有通過T檢驗，與此同時，六個變量前面的系數(shù)普遍偏小，說明短期內(nèi)單個變量對失業(yè)率變動的影響效果不顯著。進一步表明中國轉(zhuǎn)型期失業(yè)問題表現(xiàn)出的異質(zhì)性是這些因素綜合作用的結(jié)果。 第六部分是政策建議。針對轉(zhuǎn)型期各解釋變量對失業(yè)率變動的影響效應(yīng)，本文認為應(yīng)該在以下幾個方面做出努力：第一，深化經(jīng)濟體制改革；第二，大力促進第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展；第三，有針對性地進行理性投資；第四，優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，提高出口商品附加值；第五，深化收入分配制度改革，提高低收入人群的收入水平。 第七部分為全文總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:The unemployment problem is not only the focus of economic development but also the focus of economists' research. In China, most of the studies in this area are limited to the verification of Okun's law and the analysis of the influence of a certain factor on the unemployment rate. Most of the data used in the empirical analysis come from the urban registered unemployment rate published in the Statistical Yearbook of China. In this paper, the research time is fixed in the transition period since 1992. Because of the transition of economy and society and the influence of particularity on unemployment, the study of unemployment becomes more complicated. Therefore, this paper focuses on the study of the influence factors of unemployment in the transition period, and it is divided into seven parts. The specific structure is as follows: The first part is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background of the topic, the significance of the study, ideas and methods. The second part is the theoretical study of unemployment and its influencing factors. It mainly explains the basic concepts and types of unemployment, and the relevant theories of the influencing factors of unemployment. It includes the theory of unemployment in the West, the theory of unemployment of Marxist classical writers and the comparative analysis of the research on the influencing factors of unemployment at home and abroad, so as to understand the present situation of the research on the relevant problems by experts and scholars. The third part is the analysis of the current situation and characteristics of unemployment in China during the transition period. Firstly, it describes the present situation of China's unemployment problem, summarizes the characteristics of China's unemployment problem during the transition period, and then, combining the results of previous studies, obtains the real total unemployment rate, which includes urban and rural hidden unemployment. This shows the severity of unemployment in our country at present. The fourth part is the verification of the applicability of Okun's law in China during the transition period. First of all, this paper describes the correlation between the urban registered unemployment rate and the economic growth rate, which is published in the Statistical Yearbook of China. The results show that the Chinese economy does not conform to the four preconditions of Okun's Law. There is indeed a paradox of high unemployment and high economic growth. Then, in order to eliminate the error caused by data dishonesty, this paper uses the real total unemployment rate data calculated in the third part to carry on empirical analysis, but the fitting degree of regression result is not high, and the correlation between economic growth rate and unemployment rate change is very small. Finally, considering the stage characteristics of China's economy, a virtual time variable is introduced for empirical analysis, and the results are still not significant. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of unemployment in China during the transition period. On the basis of the previous analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on the economic structure adjustment, fixed asset investment, current account surplus, resident consumption, inflation and minimum wage in the Orken's Law Standardization Model. The results show that, although the degree of equation fitting has improved, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the explanatory variables and the change of unemployment rate, GDPI and GDPc have not passed the T test, at the same time, The coefficients in front of the six variables are generally small, which indicates that the effect of single variable on the change of unemployment rate in the short term is not significant. It further shows that the heterogeneity of unemployment in China during the transition period is the result of the combined effect of these factors. The sixth part is the policy suggestion. In view of the effect of various explanatory variables on the change of unemployment rate in the transitional period, this paper argues that efforts should be made in the following aspects: first, deepening the reform of the economic system; second, vigorously promoting the development of the tertiary industry; third, Fourth, optimize the trade structure and increase the added value of export commodities; fifthly, deepen the reform of income distribution system and raise the income level of low-income people. The seventh part is a summary of the full text.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共陜西省委黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F249.21

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