本文選題：商品住宅 + 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)��； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來，我國政府對住房制度進(jìn)行了多次改革完善。目前，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在支撐我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中起著重要作用，怎樣充分發(fā)揮房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的帶動作用，同時避免房地產(chǎn)泡沫的產(chǎn)生，是社會各界關(guān)心的熱點問題。而其中商品住宅市場是房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)經(jīng)營的重要場所，住宅價格的波動則直接影響房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)運營和國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。重慶市作為直轄市之一，近年來國民經(jīng)濟取得了高速發(fā)展，人均收入不斷增加，居民對住宅的剛性需求被大量釋放，商品住宅投資高速增長，供需雙方的增長促成了重慶商品住宅市場快速發(fā)展。因此，對商品住宅價格進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的理論研究，對未來重慶市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)行良性引導(dǎo)，顯得十分緊迫而富于意義。 論文首先分析了商品住宅價格的特征，根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的流程探討了商品住宅價格的構(gòu)成，結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)研究方法對商品住宅價格的影響因素進(jìn)行了探討；通過土地市場、商品住宅供應(yīng)、商品住宅需求以及住宅價格對重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅市場進(jìn)行分析，總結(jié)出了重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅市場的特點；其次，根據(jù)商品住宅價格影響因素以及重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅市場的特點，運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)從人口、城市經(jīng)濟、住房價格構(gòu)成等方面構(gòu)建住宅價格因果反饋回路，分析各因素之間的反饋關(guān)系，并識別關(guān)鍵反饋回路；構(gòu)建了重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅價格系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真模型，將重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅價格系統(tǒng)劃分為：需求子系統(tǒng)、供給子系統(tǒng)、價格子系統(tǒng)三個子系統(tǒng)，確定模型的各變量之間的方程式，同時，根據(jù)重慶市主城區(qū)1998年至2013年以來城市人口、人均住宅面積、土地成本、住宅銷售量等歷史數(shù)據(jù)，利用Vensim軟件對重慶市主城區(qū)1998年至2013年間的商品住宅價格進(jìn)行模擬，并對2014年至2018年的住宅價格進(jìn)行預(yù)測；最后，選取稅收、空置率、消費者預(yù)期、土地政策四個變量進(jìn)行政策調(diào)控試驗，，根據(jù)調(diào)控結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。通過對重慶市主城區(qū)商品住宅價格仿真研究，可以為政府引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)市場的健康發(fā)展提供參考，同時促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場與社會經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and open policy, our country government has carried on many reforms to the housing system. At present, the real estate industry plays an important role in supporting the economic development of our country. How to give full play to the leading role of the real estate industry and avoid the emergence of the real estate bubble at the same time is a hot issue concerned by all walks of life. The commercial housing market is an important place for real estate development enterprises, and the fluctuation of housing price directly affects the operation of real estate industry and the development of national economy. As one of the municipalities directly under the Central Government, Chongqing has made rapid development of the national economy in recent years, the per capita income has been increasing, the rigid demand of residents for housing has been released in a large number, and the investment in commercial housing has increased at a high speed. The growth of both supply and demand contributed to the rapid development of the commodity housing market in Chongqing. Therefore, it is urgent and meaningful to conduct a systematic theoretical study on the commodity housing price and to guide the development of the real estate industry in Chongqing in the future. Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the commodity housing price, discusses the composition of the commodity housing price according to the process of real estate development, and discusses the influencing factors of the commodity housing price through the land market, combined with the literature research method. Commercial housing supply, commercial housing demand and housing price analysis of the main urban area of Chongqing commercial housing market, summed up the characteristics of the main urban area of Chongqing commercial housing market; secondly, According to the influencing factors of the commodity housing price and the characteristics of the commercial housing market in the main urban area of Chongqing, the paper constructs the causal feedback loop of the housing price from the aspects of population, urban economy, housing price composition and so on. This paper analyzes the feedback relationship among the factors and identifies the key feedback loop, constructs the dynamic simulation model of the commodity housing price system in the main urban area of Chongqing, and divides the commodity housing price system of the main urban area of Chongqing into: demand subsystem. Supply subsystem, price subsystem three subsystems, determine the equation between the variables of the model, at the same time, according to the urban population, per capita housing area, land cost since 1998 to 2013, Based on the historical data of housing sales and other historical data, this paper simulates the commodity housing prices in Chongqing's main urban area from 1998 to 2013, and forecasts the housing prices from 2014 to 2018. Finally, tax, vacancy rate and consumer expectations are selected. The four variables of land policy were tested and the corresponding policy suggestions were put forward according to the results of regulation and control. Through the simulation study on the commodity housing price in the main urban area of Chongqing, it can provide a reference for the government to guide the healthy development of the real estate market and promote the harmonious development of the real estate market and the social economy at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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