發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-07 02:25

  本文選題：信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)　； 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)公司作為一個(gè)先導(dǎo)性、基礎(chǔ)性的產(chǎn)業(yè),其市場規(guī)模巨大,關(guān)系到國計(jì)民生,其發(fā)展既受到國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的制約,又對經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有巨大的促進(jìn)作用。然而,房地產(chǎn)屬于的資本密集產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)有高負(fù)債運(yùn)營和前期投資較高的特點(diǎn),使得企業(yè)需要借助其他資金的支持,這導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。加強(qiáng)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究對于促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)健康發(fā)展,有著重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。近幾年,國內(nèi)外的眾多事件,顯示了房地產(chǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)受到宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響。在介紹宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和房地產(chǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對房地產(chǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系做了分析。隨后,以KMV模型作為度量我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法,以53家房地產(chǎn)上市公司為樣本,計(jì)算房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的違約距離,并將其作為衡量房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,使用面板回歸模型,以違約距離為被解釋變量,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)作為解釋變量,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)作為控制變量,對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素與信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系做了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)中GDP增長率、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、利率、貨幣供應(yīng)量與房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在顯著關(guān)系。最后,通過研究結(jié)論,提出加強(qiáng)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的建議：加強(qiáng)企業(yè)自身應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)變動(dòng)的能力；債權(quán)人應(yīng)關(guān)注宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)對信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響；加強(qiáng)房地產(chǎn)信用體系建設(shè)；改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法。
[Abstract]:As a leading and basic industry, real estate company has a huge market scale, which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Its development is not only restricted by the national economy, but also plays a huge role in promoting the economic development. However, the real estate belongs to the capital intensive industry, the real estate enterprise has the characteristics of high debt operation and high investment in the early stage, which makes the enterprise need the support of other funds, which leads to the high risk of the real estate. It is of great practical significance to strengthen the research on the credit risk of the real estate enterprises to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. In recent years, many events at home and abroad show that real estate credit risk is affected by macroeconomic factors. Based on the introduction of macroeconomic theory and real estate credit risk, the relationship between real estate credit risk and macro economy is analyzed. Then, the KMV model is used as the method to measure the credit risk of real estate enterprises in China, and 53 listed real estate companies are taken as samples to calculate the default distance of real estate enterprises and take it as an index to measure the credit risk of real estate enterprises. On this basis, we use the panel regression model, take the distance of default as the explanatory variable, macroeconomic indicators as the explanatory variable, real estate enterprise financial index as the control variable. The relationship between macroeconomic factors and credit risk is tested empirically. The empirical results show that the GDP growth rate, consumer price index, interest rate and money supply in macroeconomic indicators are significantly related to the credit risk of real estate enterprises. Finally, through the conclusion of the study, the paper puts forward some suggestions for strengthening the credit risk management of real estate enterprises: strengthening the ability of enterprises to deal with economic changes; creditors should pay attention to the impact of macro economy on credit risk; strengthen the construction of real estate credit system; Improve existing risk assessment methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.233.4

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