本文選題：旅游圈 + 溢出�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域旅游合作已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)今旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的重要態(tài)勢(shì),旅游圈作為區(qū)域旅游合作的重要形式與產(chǎn)物,據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì),目前被學(xué)術(shù)界和政府關(guān)注和提出的已經(jīng)有30多個(gè)。但是這些旅游圈的構(gòu)建合理嗎,是否具有內(nèi)在的動(dòng)力支持抑或政府的“一廂情愿”；如果合理,其規(guī)模又該如何界定。因此旅游圈的識(shí)別和規(guī)模界定成為學(xué)者們廣泛關(guān)注的科學(xué)問(wèn)題,然而當(dāng)前的研究多為主觀判別的定性方法和從旅游供給角度分析的定量方法,缺乏市場(chǎng)需求分析的視角,且缺乏經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)機(jī)理的解釋。鑒于此本文以2011年度中國(guó)大陸361個(gè)地級(jí)市的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)及1989個(gè)4A級(jí)以上景區(qū)的游時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)(來(lái)源于2010年百?gòu)?qiáng)旅行社提供的8227條旅游線路)為基礎(chǔ),基于GIS (Geographic Information System)在地市級(jí)尺度上構(gòu)建了一個(gè)旅游需求溢出測(cè)度的ABS (Agent-Based Simulation)平臺(tái)。根據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)中游客的行為規(guī)律設(shè)計(jì)了景區(qū)游覽效用原則,并針對(duì)中國(guó)現(xiàn)階段游客典型的三類旅游消費(fèi)行為——觀光游、度假游和自駕游,分別構(gòu)建了三種模型及算法：“全局線路效用最優(yōu)”、“固定節(jié)點(diǎn)效用最優(yōu)”和“移動(dòng)節(jié)點(diǎn)效用最優(yōu)”,進(jìn)而引入基于自主體模擬(ABS)的方法,開(kāi)展以游客景區(qū)選擇行為為基礎(chǔ)的旅游溢出模擬,并根據(jù)旅游域交互次數(shù)(游客Agent的跨界行為),從旅游需求溢出視角對(duì)中國(guó)大陸具有發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ穆糜稳捌淇臻g規(guī)模進(jìn)行識(shí)別研究。論文撰寫(xiě)遵循理論梳理—模型構(gòu)建—模擬分析的研究思路,將全文分為四章： 第一章,本章通過(guò)對(duì)旅游圈相關(guān)研究成果進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述,總結(jié)了目前學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)旅游圈范圍在研究方法及研究視角上的局限,提出需要從旅游溢出的角度來(lái)定量計(jì)算區(qū)域間旅游合作的有效程度。然而如何對(duì)旅游溢出進(jìn)行定量測(cè)度,本文在梳理相關(guān)研究之后發(fā)現(xiàn)目前學(xué)術(shù)界主要形成了聯(lián)立方程法、似不相關(guān)回歸模型、空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型及缺口變量法四種測(cè)度思路,但是聯(lián)立方程法和似不相關(guān)回歸模型難以有效刻畫(huà)大樣本城市(／區(qū)域)間的旅游溢出效應(yīng),空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型雖然能彌補(bǔ)這一不足,然而這三種方法均為統(tǒng)計(jì)模型,對(duì)旅游溢出的機(jī)理解釋不足,缺口法模型雖然能解釋旅游溢出的機(jī)理,但其又不能實(shí)現(xiàn)多區(qū)域的旅游交互計(jì)算。總體來(lái)看這四種測(cè)度方法均不能兼顧“微觀機(jī)理”和“多區(qū)域交互”的困境,為此需要引入新的研究方法�？紤]到ABS方法在解決復(fù)雜問(wèn)題上得天獨(dú)厚的優(yōu)勢(shì)及其在旅游模擬中的廣泛應(yīng)用,本文擬引入ABS對(duì)旅游溢出進(jìn)行模擬。 第二章,本章分別從旅游溢出模擬環(huán)境、游客Agent時(shí)空屬性以及游客Agent行為規(guī)則這三個(gè)方面對(duì)旅游溢出的ABS模型進(jìn)行構(gòu)建。另外總結(jié)出中國(guó)目前三類典型的游客消費(fèi)行為—觀光游、度假游和自駕游,并根據(jù)三類行為模式下游客的不同行為規(guī)則構(gòu)建三種相應(yīng)的旅游溢出模型及算法(全局線路效用最優(yōu)、固定節(jié)點(diǎn)效用最優(yōu)和移動(dòng)節(jié)點(diǎn)效用最優(yōu)),其中論文中所需的所有數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源和處理也在這一部分進(jìn)行說(shuō)明。 第三章,由于區(qū)域間旅游業(yè)的空間溢出效應(yīng)在很大程度上表現(xiàn)為旅游流的跨界流動(dòng),因此本文選取旅游域交互次數(shù)對(duì)三種游客Agent模型下的旅游溢出模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析,并根據(jù)本文制定的旅游圈識(shí)別標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和劃分原則對(duì)中國(guó)大陸旅游圈進(jìn)行識(shí)別和規(guī)模研究。結(jié)果表明在強(qiáng)約束條件下中國(guó)大陸可發(fā)展9個(gè)適度旅游圈,分別是長(zhǎng)三角旅游圈、北京旅游圈、西安旅游圈、山東旅游圈、四川旅游圈、太原旅游圈、皖南旅游圈、遼寧旅游圈、長(zhǎng)株潭旅游圈,如果放寬約束條件,全國(guó)旅游圈的個(gè)數(shù)拓展至14個(gè)。最后本文對(duì)中國(guó)旅游圈的空間格局進(jìn)行研究,并選取長(zhǎng)株潭旅游圈進(jìn)行案例分析。 第四章,對(duì)本文取得的成果進(jìn)行總結(jié),并提出一些需要改進(jìn)的地方：如景區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)和交通距離的選取,游客Agent之間的交互問(wèn)題等等,本文在后續(xù)的研究中將會(huì)深入探討。
[Abstract]:Regional tourism cooperation has become an important trend in the development of tourism. Tourism circle is an important form and product of regional tourism cooperation. According to incomplete statistics, more than 30 have been paid attention to and put forward by academia and government. But are the construction of these tourism circles reasonable, internal power support or government? If it is reasonable, how to define its scale, so the identification and scale of the tourism circle have become a scientific problem that scholars have paid much attention to. However, the current research is mostly qualitative methods of subjective discrimination and quantitative methods from the perspective of tourism supply, lack of the perspective of market demand analysis, and lack of economic mechanism. In view of this paper, based on the social and economic data of 361 mainland cities in 2011 and 1989 scenic spots above the 4A level (from the 8227 travel routes provided by the top 100 travel agencies in 2010), this paper builds a tourist demand spillover based on the GIS (Geographic Information System) at the city level. ABS (Agent-Based Simulation) platform. According to the behavior law of tourists in reality, the principle of tourist attraction is designed. According to the typical three kinds of tourist consumption behavior of Chinese tourists at present stage, sightseeing tour, holiday tour and self driving tour, three kinds of models and calculation methods are constructed respectively: "the best of global line utility", "fixed node" The utility optimal and the "mobile node utility best" are introduced, and then the method based on ABS is introduced to carry out the tourism spillover simulation based on the tourist attractions selection behavior, and according to the interaction times of tourist domain (the cross boundary behavior of tourist Agent), the tourism circle with the development potential from the perspective of tourism demand and its development potential in China and its development potential The study of spatial scale is carried out. The thesis is written in accordance with theoretical research, model building and simulation analysis. The paper is divided into four chapters.
In the first chapter, through a literature review on the related research results of tourism circle, this chapter summarizes the limitations of the current academic circles on the research methods and research perspectives of the scope of the tourism circle, and proposes the quantitative calculation of the effectiveness of inter regional tourism cooperation from the perspective of tourism spillovers. After combing the related research, it is found that the current academic circles have mainly formed the simultaneous equation method, like unrelated regression model, spatial econometrics model and gap variable method, but it is difficult to describe the tourism spillover effect between the large sample cities (/ regions) effectively, and the spatial econometric model is not effective. Although the model can make up for this deficiency, these three methods are all statistical models, which can not explain the mechanism of tourism spillovers. Although the gap method can explain the mechanism of tourism spillovers, they can not achieve multi regional tourism interaction calculation. In general, these four methods can not take into account "micro mechanism" and "multi region". Considering the unique advantage of ABS method in solving complex problems and its wide application in tourism simulation, this paper introduces ABS to simulate tourism spillovers.
In the second chapter, this chapter constructs the ABS model of tourism spillover from the three aspects of tourism spillover simulation environment, tourist Agent space-time attributes and tourists' Agent behavior rules. In addition, it summarizes the three typical tourist consumption behaviors in China - sightseeing tours, holiday tours and self driving tours, and according to the differences of tourists in the three types of behavior patterns. The behavior rules construct three corresponding travel spillover models and algorithms (global line utility optimal, fixed node utility optimal and mobile node utility optimal). All the data sources and treatment required in the paper are also explained in this part.
The third chapter, because the spatial spillover effect of interregional tourism is largely expressed as the transboundary flow of tourism flow, this paper analyzes the simulation results of tourism spillovers in the three tourist Agent models by selecting the interaction times of tourist domain, and according to the criteria and principles of the tourism circle identification and the principle of dividing the tourism circle of this paper to China's mainland tourism circle. The results show that under the strong constraints, China can develop 9 moderate tourism circles, namely, the Yangtze River Delta tourism circle, Beijing tourism circle, Xi'an tourism circle, Shandong tourism circle, Sichuan tourism circle, Taiyuan tourism circle, Southern Anhui tourism circle, Liaoning tourism circle and Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan tourism circle, if the constraints are relaxed and the national tourism is relaxed. The number of circles extends to 14. Finally, this paper studies the spatial pattern of China's tourism circle and selects Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan tourism circle as case study.
The fourth chapter summarizes the achievements of this article, and puts forward some areas for improvement, such as the selection of scenic spot data and traffic distance, the interaction between tourist Agent and so on. This article will be discussed in further research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F590;F224

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