本文選題：財(cái)政赤字 + 就業(yè)��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：財(cái)政赤字指一個(gè)國(guó)家財(cái)政年度中財(cái)政收入少于財(cái)政支出,是財(cái)政失衡的表現(xiàn)。政府運(yùn)用政策手段調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí),也會(huì)使用財(cái)政赤字政策干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì),將其作為國(guó)家重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策之一,以實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、充分就業(yè)、物價(jià)穩(wěn)定和國(guó)際收支平衡的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)。特別是在此輪經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下,各國(guó)紛紛采取財(cái)政赤字政策穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)。作為世界上人口總量最多的發(fā)展中國(guó)家,就業(yè)問題在我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位尤為突出,這既是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)問題,也是社會(huì)民生問題。對(duì)財(cái)政赤字和就業(yè)問題開展深入研究,不僅有較高的學(xué)術(shù)價(jià)值,更有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文采用理論研究和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,對(duì)財(cái)政赤字和就業(yè)水平的相關(guān)性展開了深入的研究。首先,基于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)經(jīng)典理論和國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的理論與實(shí)證研究文獻(xiàn),建立了財(cái)政赤字與就業(yè)的理論框架,分別從財(cái)政赤字的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)、財(cái)政支出政策和財(cái)政收入政策出發(fā)說明財(cái)政赤字對(duì)就業(yè)影響機(jī)制和效應(yīng),為后續(xù)的實(shí)證部分提供了理論依據(jù)。其次,從國(guó)際比較的角度考察赤字與就業(yè)的問題,研究美國(guó)、歐盟和一些亞洲國(guó)家就業(yè)相關(guān)的財(cái)政政策及赤字與就業(yè)情況,分析總結(jié)其經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),為我國(guó)日后的政策制定提供借鑒。最后,從實(shí)證分析角度對(duì)我國(guó)的財(cái)政赤字與就業(yè)相關(guān)性進(jìn)行研究,基于中國(guó)1980-2012年的數(shù)據(jù)建立計(jì)量模型,分析我國(guó)財(cái)政赤字對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)的影響,同時(shí)控制了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、城鄉(xiāng)收入差距、投資和教育的作用。通過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、基于向量誤差修正模型的格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法說明了中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字和城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)水平存在著顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,財(cái)政赤字水平的上升能有效擴(kuò)大城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè),體現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)化和收入水平的城鄉(xiāng)收入差距、投資和教育也與就業(yè)有正向關(guān)系。在理論研究和實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文還就我國(guó)的現(xiàn)狀提出了多項(xiàng)政策建議,認(rèn)為政府經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定應(yīng)將就業(yè)擴(kuò)大目標(biāo)擺在與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)同等重要的位置,通過財(cái)政赤字政策的調(diào)整和優(yōu)化,加強(qiáng)支出政策的就業(yè)針對(duì)性,將預(yù)算赤字重點(diǎn)投入到公共建設(shè)、城鎮(zhèn)化、教育等領(lǐng)域,提高減稅政策的執(zhí)行力度,發(fā)揮財(cái)政赤字對(duì)就業(yè)的推動(dòng)作用,促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:Fiscal deficit refers to a country's fiscal year in which the fiscal revenue is less than the fiscal expenditure, is the performance of fiscal imbalance. When the government uses policy measures to adjust and control the economy, it will also use the fiscal deficit policy to intervene in the economy as one of the important macroeconomic policies of the country, in order to achieve economic growth and full employment. Macroeconomic objectives for price stability and balance of payments. Especially in this round of economic crisis, countries have adopted fiscal deficit policies to stabilize the economy and employment. As a developing country with the largest population in the world, the employment problem is especially prominent in our national economy, which is not only a macroeconomic problem, but also a social livelihood problem. It is not only of high academic value, but also of great practical significance to carry out in-depth research on fiscal deficit and employment. In this paper, the correlation between fiscal deficit and employment level is deeply studied by combining theoretical research with empirical analysis. First of all, based on the classical theory of economics and the theoretical and empirical research literature of domestic and foreign scholars, the theoretical framework of fiscal deficit and employment is established, respectively from the economic effects of fiscal deficit. The fiscal expenditure policy and the fiscal revenue policy explain the mechanism and effect of fiscal deficit on employment and provide the theoretical basis for the following empirical part. Secondly, from the perspective of international comparison, it examines the problems of deficit and employment, studies the employment-related fiscal policies of the United States, the European Union and some Asian countries, and analyzes and summarizes their experiences and lessons. To provide reference for the future policy formulation of our country. Finally, from the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper studies the correlation between fiscal deficit and employment in China, establishes a econometric model based on the data from 1980 to 2012, analyzes the impact of fiscal deficit on urban employment, and controls the economic growth at the same time. Urban and rural income gap, investment and the role of education. By means of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test based on vector error correction model and other econometrics methods, it is shown that there is a significant positive correlation between China's fiscal deficit and urban employment level. The increase of fiscal deficit level can effectively expand urban employment, reflecting the urban-rural income gap between urbanization and income level. Investment and education also have a positive relationship with employment. On the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis, this paper also puts forward a number of policy suggestions on the current situation of our country, and holds that the goal of employment expansion should be placed in the same important position as the goal of economic growth in the formulation of government economic policy. Through the adjustment and optimization of the fiscal deficit policy, we should strengthen the employment orientation of the expenditure policy, put the budget deficit into public construction, urbanization, education and other fields, and enhance the implementation of the tax reduction policy. Bring into play the role of fiscal deficit in promoting employment and promoting employment growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.4;F249.2

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