本文選題：住房支付能力 + 房價(jià)收入比��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：從20世紀(jì)80年代開始,我國開始推行住房制度改革。逐步建立了以市場為主導(dǎo)的住房分配體系。城鎮(zhèn)居民的住房水平也得到了迅速提高,住房質(zhì)量和環(huán)境也得到了進(jìn)一步的改善,在取得豐碩成果的同時(shí)是房價(jià)快速上漲及房屋供給結(jié)構(gòu)失衡等等問題的出現(xiàn),城鎮(zhèn)居民住房消費(fèi)支出額逐步上升,占家庭可支配收入比重也逐步上升,居民住房壓力不斷上漲,住房支付能力則一步步下降。而住房問題是重要的民生問題,因此政府如何通過宏觀調(diào)控解決居民住房困難問題也就成為社會關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力的評估也就成為政府制定住房政策的重要參考依據(jù)。 成都作為四川省的省會城市,西南地區(qū)教育、科技、商貿(mào)、金融、文化中心,通信、交通樞紐,2012年,經(jīng)濟(jì)總量名列全國15個(gè)副省級城市第三(僅僅次于廣州、深圳),城市GDP中國大陸第八位,最近幾年來經(jīng)濟(jì)社會迅速發(fā)展中,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的持續(xù)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展發(fā)揮了十分巨大的作用。在經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)得到了快速的發(fā)展之后,居民收入水平有了很大的提高,居民的住房條件得到了很大的改善,但是商品房價(jià)格也日益升高。如何保持房地產(chǎn)市場的健康發(fā)展,并且讓居民真正享受到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來的福利,改善居住條件,理應(yīng)成為政府宏觀調(diào)控的重點(diǎn)。 本文在參考國外相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國具體國情,分析研究了成都市居民住房支付能力問題,本文分為六個(gè)部分 第一部分,介紹了本文研究的背景和領(lǐng)域,對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)居民住房支付能力的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述和評論后,總結(jié)了本文的研究方法和具體內(nèi)容,并就本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了歸納和總結(jié)。 第二部分,對居民住房支付能力的概念進(jìn)行了界定,認(rèn)為一個(gè)家庭必須在滿足住房消費(fèi)支出的同時(shí),有能力負(fù)擔(dān)其他日常消費(fèi)支出時(shí)才認(rèn)為該家庭具有住房支付能力,并詳細(xì)介紹了房價(jià)收入比(PR)、住房可支付性指數(shù)(HAI)、月供收入比(MIR)三大指標(biāo),得出的房價(jià)收入比指標(biāo)(PIR)簡單明了,但在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中該指標(biāo)卻缺乏一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),住房可支付性指數(shù)(HAI)把家庭住房按揭貸款支出額不超過家庭月均可支配收入的25%作為判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn),在目前我國房價(jià)居高不下的情況下適用性不強(qiáng),月供收入比(MIR)僅僅用來衡量按揭買房居民的住房支付能力,三大指標(biāo)各有優(yōu)點(diǎn),但根據(jù)我國實(shí)際情況,本文最后提出了又一輔助性指標(biāo)月供消費(fèi)結(jié)余(Balance)用于測算城鎮(zhèn)居民收入在支付正常供房和日常消費(fèi)開支后的結(jié)余。 第三部分,首先對成都市房地產(chǎn)市場最近七年的運(yùn)行情況進(jìn)行了綜述,再分別從市場需求和供給兩個(gè)方便分析了各年的變動(dòng)情況,結(jié)合住宅商品房的相關(guān)價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),從統(tǒng)計(jì)圖上看到2003-2012年成都市住宅商品房價(jià)格的變動(dòng)趨勢基本是一路上漲的,從數(shù)據(jù)分析來看近年來成都市房地產(chǎn)市場供求雙向持續(xù)增長,但整體需求增長幅度超過供給的增長幅度,一方面源于居民收入增長所帶來的需求的提高,另一方面在于整體城市化率的增長。最后結(jié)合成都市居民各年的收入情況分析了影響居民住房支付能力的幾大因素,既定量分析了影響居民住房支付能力的三大因素：居民收入、房價(jià)、利率,也定性分析了政府調(diào)控因素和住房保障因素。 第四部分,介紹了時(shí)間序列的幾種基本模型和ARIMA模型的建模步驟,具體測算了成都市居民住房支付能力的四大指標(biāo),通過對成都市居民2003-2012年有關(guān)該四個(gè)衡量指標(biāo)的具體測算后發(fā)現(xiàn)成都居民住房支付能力偏低的結(jié)論。最后通過ARIMA時(shí)間序列模型預(yù)測了成都居民房價(jià)收入比(PIR)指標(biāo)在2013-2015年的數(shù)值,得出如果按照目前市場形勢發(fā)展下去,2013-2015年成都市居民房價(jià)收入比呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,整體居民住房支付能力呈下降趨勢,這說明成都市居民可支配收入的增長速度小于普通住宅價(jià)格的上漲速度。并且房價(jià)收入比的值仍然居于高位,在8以上,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力,成都市居民住房問題仍然嚴(yán)峻。 第五部分,成都作為西部唯一的特大型城市,強(qiáng)調(diào)市場化帶動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,擴(kuò)大房地產(chǎn)市場的有效需求和供給,根據(jù)中央政府房地產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整規(guī)劃,為應(yīng)對住宅價(jià)格偏高的問題,目前,成都市正逐步形成由商品房、經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房(可租可售)和廉租房三個(gè)層次的住房供應(yīng)體系為主,輔之以限價(jià)房、公共租賃房,著力構(gòu)建完善的公共住房供應(yīng)體系,真正實(shí)現(xiàn)人民“住有所居”。所以本文從政府宏觀調(diào)控的角度提出了提高成都居民住房支付能力的相關(guān)政策建議。主要有(1)從土地財(cái)政的角度解決地方政府對土地財(cái)政的依賴,間接性或直接性的降低房價(jià),從而提高居民住房支付能力；(2)從增加住房供給的角度,提出了增加房屋供給量及優(yōu)化供給結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)建議；(3)從政府完善住房保障體系的角度提出相關(guān)政策建議；(4)從政府提供措施降低中低收入居民住房成本和非住房支出角度提出了具體可行措施；(5)從政府財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼的角度,提出了增加中低收入家庭可支配收入的相關(guān)舉措；(6)從政府采取行政性調(diào)控措施的角度,提出政府為維持房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展并間接性的解決居民住房能力的相關(guān)政策建議。 本文通過對成都市居民住房支付能力研究,判斷現(xiàn)在的成都市居民住房市場價(jià)格是否與居民收入所代表的住房購買力相匹配。并為政府制定相應(yīng)的住房和調(diào)控政策及實(shí)施住房保障措施提供參考,以遏制居民住房問題的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。并在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用ARIMA時(shí)間序列模型對房價(jià)收入比進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,希望本文所得到的相關(guān)結(jié)論和提出的具體政策建議能為政府制定相關(guān)解決居民住房困難問題的政策提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, the housing system reform has been carried out in China. The housing distribution system dominated by the market has been gradually established. The housing level of urban residents has also been rapidly improved, and the housing quality and environment have been further improved. The housing consumption expenditure of urban residents is rising gradually, and the proportion of household disposable income is rising gradually, the housing pressure is rising, and the housing payment ability is falling step by step. The housing problem is an important livelihood problem, so how the government can solve the housing difficulties through macro regulation and control Become the focus of social concern. Evaluation of housing affordability of urban residents has also become an important reference for the government to formulate housing policies.
Chengdu, as the capital city of Sichuan Province, the southwest region education, science and technology, trade, finance, culture center, communication, transportation hub, in 2012, the total economic total ranks 15 sub provincial cities third (only next to Guangzhou, Shenzhen), the city GDP China eighth, the rapid economic and social development in recent years, the sustainable health of the real estate industry Stable development has played a great role. After the rapid development of economic construction, the income level of residents has been greatly improved, the housing conditions of the residents have been greatly improved, but the price of commercial housing is also increasing. How to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and let the residents really enjoy the economic development The welfare and improvement of living conditions should become the focus of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.
On the basis of foreign related research and combined with China's specific national conditions, this paper analyzes and studies the housing affordability of Chengdu residents. This article is divided into six parts.
In the first part, the background and field of this study are introduced. After reviewing and reviewing the status of housing payment capacity at home and abroad, the research methods and specific contents are summarized, and the innovation points of this paper are summarized and summarized.
In the second part, the concept of housing payment capacity is defined. It is considered that a family must meet the housing consumption expenditure and have the ability to burden other daily consumption expenditure only when the family has the capacity of housing payment, and the house price income ratio (PR), the housing affordability index (HAI), and the monthly income ratio (MIR) are introduced in detail. Three major indicators, the price income ratio of the index (PIR) is simple and clear, but in practical application, the index is lack of a unified standard. The housing affordability index (HAI) makes the home housing mortgage loan amount not more than 25% of the family monthly disposable income as a criterion. It is applicable under the current situation of high house prices in China. Not strong, the monthly income ratio (MIR) is only used to measure the housing payment capacity of the mortgaged house residents. The three major indicators have their advantages. However, according to the actual situation of our country, this paper finally puts forward a supplementary index of Balance for the balance of urban residents' income after the payment of normal housing and daily consumption expenses.
The third part, first of all, the last seven years of the Chengdu real estate market operation situation is reviewed, and then from the market demand and supply of two convenient analysis of the changes in the year, combined with the housing commodity house related price statistics, from the statistical map to see 2003-2012 years in the 2003-2012 years of residential housing price changes in the basic trend. According to the data analysis, the supply and demand of Chengdu real estate market is increasing in two directions in recent years, but the growth of the overall demand is more than the supply. On the one hand, the increase of the demand from the growth of residents' income and the growth of the overall urbanization rate are on the other hand. Finally, the income of the residents in Chengdu is combined with each year's income. Several factors that affect the housing payment ability of residents are analyzed. The three factors that affect the residents' housing payment capacity are analyzed quantitatively, including residents' income, house price, interest rate, and the factors of government regulation and housing security.
In the fourth part, several basic models of time series and the modeling steps of ARIMA model are introduced, and the four indexes of housing payment capacity of Chengdu residents are calculated, and the conclusion that the housing payment ability of Chengdu residents is low after 2003-2012 years of Chengdu residents' four measurement indexes is found. Finally, through ARIMA The time series model predicts the value of the housing price ratio (PIR) index of Chengdu residents in 2013-2015 years. It is concluded that if the current market situation is developed in accordance with the current market situation, the housing price ratio of residents in Chengdu is on the rise in 2013-2015 years, and the housing payment ability of the whole residents is declining, which shows the rapid growth of the disposable income of the residents in Chengdu. The rate is less than the price of ordinary housing. And the value of the house price income ratio is still in the high position, which is above 8. It is far more than the housing payment capacity of urban residents. The housing problem of the residents in Chengdu is still severe.
In the fifth part, Chengdu, as the only large city in the west, emphasizes the market driven development of the real estate industry, the expansion of the effective demand and supply of the real estate market. According to the adjustment and planning of the central government's real estate structure, in order to cope with the high price of housing, Chengdu is gradually forming a commercial housing and affordable housing (available for sale). And low rent housing three levels of housing supply system, supplemented by limited housing, public rental housing, to build a perfect public housing supply system, to truly realize the people "live in". Therefore, this article from the perspective of the government macro regulation and control proposed to improve the housing payment capacity of Chengdu residents related policy recommendations. The main (1) from the soil To solve the local government's dependence on land finance, to reduce house price indirectly or directly, and to improve the housing payment capacity of residents. (2) from the angle of increasing housing supply, some suggestions are put forward to increase the supply of housing and optimize the supply structure; (3) the relevant government's improvement of housing security system is put forward. Policy recommendations; (4) from the government to provide measures to reduce the housing cost of low-income residents and non housing expenditure point of view put forward concrete feasible measures; (5) from the perspective of government financial subsidies, put forward the relevant measures to increase the disposable income of middle and low income families; (6) from the perspective of the government to take administrative measures to maintain the government to maintain Relevant policies and recommendations for the steady and steady development of the real estate market and indirect solutions to the housing capacity of residents.
Through the study of the housing payment capacity of residents in Chengdu, this paper determines whether the current housing market price of residents in Chengdu matches the housing purchasing power represented by residents' income, and provides a reference for the government to formulate corresponding housing and regulation policies and implement housing security measures so as to curb the further expansion of housing problems. On this basis, the ARIMA time series model is used to predict the ratio of house price to income. It is hoped that the relevant conclusions and specific policy suggestions obtained in this paper can provide reference for the government to formulate policies to solve the housing difficulties of residents.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F123.16

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