本文選題：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　切入點(diǎn)：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國(guó)家支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)得到了蓬勃發(fā)展。但也產(chǎn)生了各地房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)過(guò)熱發(fā)展，房?jī)r(jià)持續(xù)上漲，投資需求旺盛，剛性需求由于過(guò)高的房?jī)r(jià)受到抑制等問(wèn)題。為此，國(guó)家和地方相繼出臺(tái)了一系列的調(diào)控政策，但調(diào)控效果卻不容樂(lè)觀。為使房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展、調(diào)控更加合理，就必須對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)在規(guī)律進(jìn)行深入的研究。本論文的研究，就旨在探究房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力機(jī)制及其客觀發(fā)展規(guī)律，為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展提出有效的建議措施。 本論文首先簡(jiǎn)述了近年來(lái)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)以及廈門市住宅市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展情況。然后，以文獻(xiàn)閱讀法、房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論等為基礎(chǔ)，分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿σ蛩�。接著以房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)需求、供給、價(jià)格的形成原理及系統(tǒng)工程理論為基礎(chǔ)，將房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)這個(gè)復(fù)雜的大系統(tǒng)劃分為8個(gè)子系統(tǒng)。運(yùn)用因果分析理論研究各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部動(dòng)力因素之間的內(nèi)在機(jī)理，以及各子系統(tǒng)之間的因果反饋機(jī)制，尤其是二手房市場(chǎng)和租賃市場(chǎng)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的影響機(jī)理，并采用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)因果回路圖構(gòu)建了整個(gè)房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的因果反饋機(jī)制，從而剖析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力機(jī)理。最后，以廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)2000年到2010年的歷史數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)，運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中隨機(jī)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)方法對(duì)變量進(jìn)行賦值，運(yùn)用誤差修正模型及EViews軟件建模、仿真，建立動(dòng)力學(xué)模型中各動(dòng)力因素之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)學(xué)模型。在確定動(dòng)力因素的取值以及動(dòng)力因素之間的定量函數(shù)關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上，，采用Vensim PLE軟件構(gòu)建廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，模擬和仿真廈門市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展軌跡，并與歷史數(shù)據(jù)比較分析，以此論證了模型的正確性。 本論文運(yùn)用所建立的廈門市SD（System Dynamics，簡(jiǎn)稱SD）模型，仿真模擬了2011年到2020年廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。通過(guò)改變模型中政策變量的數(shù)值，仿真了不同調(diào)控政策的敏感度，分析了相關(guān)調(diào)控政策可能產(chǎn)生的效應(yīng)，評(píng)估各調(diào)控政策的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為廈門市政府宏觀調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展提供及時(shí)科學(xué)的決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry as a pillar industry has been booming.However, there are some problems such as overheated development of real estate market, rising house prices, strong investment demand and restraint of rigid demand due to excessive housing prices.To this end, the state and local has issued a series of regulatory policies, but the regulatory effect is not optimistic.In order to make the real estate market develop healthily and control more reasonably, it is necessary to deeply study the inherent law of the real estate market.The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal motive mechanism and objective development law of the real estate market, and to put forward effective suggestions for the healthy development of the real estate market.This paper firstly introduces the development of Chinese real estate market and Xiamen residential market in recent years.Then, based on the literature reading method and real estate economics theory, this paper analyzes the main driving factors of the real estate market.Then, based on the theory of real estate market demand, supply, price and system engineering, the complex large system of real estate market is divided into eight subsystems.Based on the theory of causality analysis, this paper studies the internal mechanism of dynamic factors in each subsystem, and the mechanism of causal feedback among subsystems, especially the influence mechanism of second-hand housing market and rental market on the real estate market.The causal feedback mechanism of the whole real estate system is constructed by using the system dynamics causality loop diagram, and the intrinsic dynamic mechanism of the real estate market is analyzed.Finally, based on the historical data of Xiamen real estate market from 2000 to 2010, using stochastic time series prediction method in econometrics to assign variables, error correction model and EViews software are used to model and simulate.The economic mathematical model between the dynamic factors in the dynamic model is established.On the basis of determining the value of dynamic factors and the quantitative functional relationship between dynamic factors, the system dynamics model of Xiamen real estate market is constructed by using Vensim PLE software, and the development track of Xiamen real estate industry is simulated and simulated.Compared with historical data, the model is proved to be correct.This paper simulates the development trend of Xiamen real estate market from 2011 to 2020 by using the established SD(System dynamics model.By changing the value of policy variables in the model, the sensitivity of different regulatory policies is simulated, and the possible effects of relevant regulatory policies are analyzed, and the risks of each regulatory policy are evaluated.It provides a timely and scientific basis for the development of the real estate market in Xiamen.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;N941.3

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