本文選題：住房制度改革　切入點(diǎn)：房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控　出處：《審計(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2015年02期

【摘要】：借鑒貨幣最優(yōu)政策模型,從機(jī)理上分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的變動(dòng)規(guī)律,發(fā)現(xiàn)推動(dòng)房?jī)r(jià)正常上漲的本質(zhì)在于成本推動(dòng)以及人口遷移下對(duì)住房的剛性需求,其他政策雖然短期內(nèi)可調(diào)節(jié)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng),但長(zhǎng)期過(guò)度使用會(huì)導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的畸形。進(jìn)一步基于小波多分辨率分析與干預(yù)分析模型討論了我國(guó)政策沖擊下的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)現(xiàn):房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)短期內(nèi)會(huì)影響房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售,但長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售不受房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)影響,房?jī)r(jià)上漲與銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)均具有自身內(nèi)在的推動(dòng)力;政策調(diào)整對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)調(diào)控的沖擊出現(xiàn)逆效性,短期內(nèi)可以抑制房?jī)r(jià)上漲,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)則會(huì)造成房?jī)r(jià)的更大波動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:Based on the model of optimal monetary policy, this paper analyzes the changing law of real estate market from the mechanism, and finds that the essence of promoting the normal rise of house price lies in the cost promotion and the rigid demand for housing under the condition of population migration.Other policies can adjust house price volatility in the short term, but long-term overuse can lead to irreversibly abnormal house prices.Based on the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and intervention analysis model, this paper discusses the real estate market under the impact of policy in China. It is found that house price fluctuations will affect real estate sales in the short term, but real estate sales will not be affected by housing price fluctuations in the long run.Both the rise of house price and the increase of sales have their own internal driving force; the impact of policy adjustment on the regulation of house price is counterproductive, which can restrain the rise of house price in the short term and cause greater fluctuation of house price in the long run.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：西安交通大學(xué)人文社科類(lèi)重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(SKZ2014011)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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本文編號(hào)：1691150