本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量　切入點(diǎn)：永續(xù)盤(pán)存法　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：資本存量是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中研究生產(chǎn)函數(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、投資效率、全要素增長(zhǎng)率等無(wú)法避免的要素。本文在學(xué)者關(guān)于資本存量估算研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,借鑒學(xué)者關(guān)于資本存量估算中的經(jīng)典、通行處理方式方法,細(xì)化資本存量的口徑,估算了我國(guó)的城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量,并在此基礎(chǔ)之上進(jìn)行了諸多分析。 本文一開(kāi)始論述了本文的研究背景及意義。研究背景體現(xiàn)在兩個(gè)大的方面：市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制與特殊的政治體制以及城鎮(zhèn)化。我國(guó)的公共投資以及資本存量規(guī)模是與我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制發(fā)展息息相關(guān)的。新中國(guó)成立初期的計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代,公共投資占據(jù)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)投資的主導(dǎo)地位,公共資本存量的積累規(guī)模也占據(jù)了國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)總資本存量的較大部分。在1978年經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革后,市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制開(kāi)始發(fā)揮作用。公共資本投資所占國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)投資的比例開(kāi)始下降,主要是私人投資規(guī)模開(kāi)始擴(kuò)大,私人投資開(kāi)始興盛。所以,現(xiàn)在的公共投資及其資本積累要求更多的是質(zhì)的積累,注重公共投資的效率,注重公共資本的產(chǎn)出效率等。城鎮(zhèn)化的過(guò)程中必然會(huì)有許多公共投資以及資本的積累。早在“十一五”規(guī)劃綱要就已經(jīng)明確“要把城市群作為推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化的主體形態(tài)”,2013年6月,新一輪城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃正在制定中,而城市群作為未來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的主體形態(tài)被賦予更多關(guān)注。當(dāng)今以及今后較長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi),城鎮(zhèn)化的快速推進(jìn)是大的政策方向。城鎮(zhèn)化的過(guò)程中,必然會(huì)有大量資本的投資以及積累。其中公共投資的規(guī)模以及內(nèi)涵也在不斷擴(kuò)展。關(guān)注公共投資規(guī)模以及資本存量效率等問(wèn)題也是十分必須的。 接著本文簡(jiǎn)單概括了研究方法及論文結(jié)構(gòu)。本文的研究方法是PIM法,即永續(xù)盤(pán)存法。其基本思路是下一期期初的凈資本存量Kt-1,可以看作本期期初的凈資本存量Kt和本期的投資It：以及折舊Dt的函數(shù),并假設(shè)資本效率呈幾何方式遞減。從而Kt-1=Kt(1-δ)-It/P,因此,在PIM法中,我們需要進(jìn)行處理的因素有：基年資本存量,折舊率,投資序列數(shù)據(jù)以及投資價(jià)格指數(shù)。后面的估算也是基于對(duì)四個(gè)因素的處理方法選擇進(jìn)行的,可以說(shuō)對(duì)這四個(gè)因素的選擇就是PIM法成功的關(guān)鍵。 第二部分是文獻(xiàn)綜述部分。本文先綜述了學(xué)者關(guān)于資本存量的研究,主要是對(duì)于不同學(xué)者對(duì)于關(guān)鍵要素的處理方法的討論。接著綜述了學(xué)者關(guān)于公共資本存量的研究,主要是對(duì)于研究公共資本存量中處理方法的選擇及原因和公共資本存量估算研究的特殊困難。第三部分是對(duì)“城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量”進(jìn)行范圍界定。公共資本是政府在公共部門(mén)的公共投資形成的資本積累,對(duì)公共資本進(jìn)行范圍界定,是研究公共資本存量的第一步和關(guān)鍵性的一步。正因?yàn)楣操Y本的積累是由于公共投資引致的,那么必須界定好公共投資的范圍。從方向來(lái)看,包括兩個(gè)大類(lèi)的投資：一是社會(huì)公益類(lèi)項(xiàng)目投資,二是經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)類(lèi)項(xiàng)目投資。 第四部分是本文的主體部分,對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量進(jìn)行估算。本文的研究從1995年開(kāi)始,先討論了分析方法-永續(xù)盤(pán)存法。接著也是對(duì)永續(xù)盤(pán)存法中四個(gè)因素的具體處理。最后估算出了我國(guó)1995年不變價(jià)的1995-2012年的城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量數(shù)據(jù),在此基礎(chǔ)上作了簡(jiǎn)單的趨勢(shì)分析和資本-產(chǎn)出比分析。用相同的方法估算出全社會(huì)公共資本存量,進(jìn)而可知城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量與全社會(huì)公共資本存量之比,接著估算全社會(huì)的固定資本存量,從而得知城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量與固定資本存量之比及其變化。最后又由全社會(huì)固定資本存量與全社會(huì)公共資本存量之差得出私人資本存量,從而分析城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量與私人資本存量的發(fā)展關(guān)系及其變化原因探討。 由估算及分析,本文得出的結(jié)論有：1、我國(guó)的公共投資以及公共資本積累處在一個(gè)高速平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的階段,公共投資穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng),城鎮(zhèn)公共資本也在快速積累。這對(duì)于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有現(xiàn)實(shí)性的意義。2、城鎮(zhèn)公共資本產(chǎn)出比經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)上升以及下降和平穩(wěn)小幅上升的階段,這說(shuō)明城鎮(zhèn)公共資本的效率的波動(dòng)情況是一個(gè)下降以及上升和小幅下降的過(guò)程。進(jìn)而由規(guī)模效應(yīng)遞減的規(guī)律分析波動(dòng)的原因可能是資本投資規(guī)模的波動(dòng)。3、城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量占據(jù)了全社會(huì)公共資本存量的絕大部分,結(jié)合城鎮(zhèn)化的大背景可知未來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量仍有上升的空間。4、我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量占全社會(huì)資本存量的比例穩(wěn)定,反應(yīng)了城鎮(zhèn)公共資本存量的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展,我國(guó)的資本存量的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)也相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。5、對(duì)于廣大農(nóng)村來(lái)說(shuō),公共投資以及公共資本積累速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于城鎮(zhèn)的水平,反映了對(duì)廣大農(nóng)村的公共投資的嚴(yán)重不足以及農(nóng)村公共資本積累的薄弱,這也應(yīng)是廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)積貧積弱的主要原因。因此,未來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)化的過(guò)程中應(yīng)加大對(duì)農(nóng)村地區(qū)的公共投資,促進(jìn)公共資本在農(nóng)村的積累。這對(duì)政策的推行也是有利的。
[Abstract]:The capital stock is the study of the production function, macroeconomic research in economic growth, investment efficiency, the elements can not avoid the TFP growth rate. In this paper based on the research of scholars on the estimation of capital stock, capital stock estimation reference scholars on the classic pass processing methods, refine the capital stock of the caliber, I estimate China's urban public capital stock, and on the basis of a lot of analysis.
This paper first discusses the background and significance of this study. The research background is reflected in two aspects: the market economy system and the special political system and urbanization. China's public investment and capital stock scale and the economic system of our country is closely related to the development of the planned economy era. The early founding of new China. Public investment occupies the leading position of the national economy investment, the scale of public capital stock accumulation also occupies a large part of the national economy. The total capital stock in 1978 after the reform of the economic system, market economic system began to play a role. The public capital investment in GDP and the proportion of investment began to decline, mainly private investment scale began to expand private investment began to flourish. Therefore, public investment and capital accumulation now are demanding more matter accumulation, pay attention to the efficiency of public investment, pay attention to the public The output efficiency of the capital. The process of urbanization will inevitably have a lot of public investment and capital accumulation. As early as in the "11th Five-Year plan" has been clear to the city group as the main form of urbanization ", in June 2013, a new round of urban planning is made, and the city group as the main body the future development of urbanization has been given more attention. Nowadays and in the future a longer period of time, the rapid advance of urbanization is the big policy direction. The process of urbanization, there must be a large number of capital investment and accumulation. The scale of public investment and the connotation has been extended. Public concern the scale of investment and capital efficiency is very necessary.
Then this paper summarizes the research methods and thesis structure. This research method is PIM method, namely the perpetual inventory method. The basic idea is the next period at the beginning of the net capital stock of Kt-1, can be seen as the beginning of the current period net capital stock Kt and the period of investment: It and Dt and the function of depreciation. Assuming that capital efficiency is decreasing. So the geometry Kt-1=Kt (1- 8) -It/P, therefore, in the PIM method, we need to deal with factors: base year capital stock, depreciation rate, investment and investment price index series data. The estimation is based on four methods for the selection of the element. It can be said of the four factors is the key to the success of the PIM selection method.
The second part is literature review. The research about the capital stock of this paper first reviews the scholars, mainly to discuss the methods for processing different scholars. Research on key elements of the public capital stock and then summarizes the scholars, mainly the special difficulties for the estimation of selection and processing method of public reason in public capital stock and capital stock. The third part is the "urban public capital stock" scope. The public capital is the government in the formation of public investment in public sector capital accumulation, the scope of the definition of public capital, is the first step and the key step of public capital stock. Because public capital accumulation is due to the public investment caused by, so we have to define the scope of public investment. From the direction of view, including two categories: one is the investment of public project investment Capital, two is an investment in economic infrastructure projects.
The fourth part is the main part of this paper, to estimate China's urban public capital stock. This study from the beginning of 1995, first discussed analysis method. Then the perpetual inventory method is specific to the four factors in the perpetual inventory method. Finally estimate China's constant 1995 1995-2012 years of urban public the data of the capital stock, based on the simple trend analysis and capital output ratio analysis. To estimate the public capital stock in the same way, then it is known that the urban public capital and public capital stock ratio, then estimate the fixed capital stock, so that the urban public capital stock and fixed the ratio of the capital stock changes. Finally by the total fixed capital stock and total public capital stock of the private capital stock, and analysis of urban public information The relationship between the stock of this stock and the stock of private capital and the reasons for its change.
By calculation and analysis, the conclusions of this paper are: 1, China's public investment and public capital accumulation in a high stage of stable development, the steady growth of public investment, urban public capital is rapidly accumulating. It is practical for the development of the national economy and the significance of.2, urban public capital output ratio experience a rising and falling and a slight rise in the volatility of the stage, the efficiency of urban public capital is a decline and rise and decline slightly. The reason analysis of the law of fluctuation and by decreasing the scale effect may be the fluctuation of.3 capital investment scale, urban public capital stock accounted for most of all the public capital stock, with the urbanization background of the future urban public capital stock still has space.4 rising, China's urban public capital stock accounted for the whole society Capital stock ratio is stable, reaction and steady development of the urban public capital stock, the internal structure of capital stock in China is relatively stable.5, for the majority of rural areas, public investment and public capital accumulation rate is far behind the town level, weak reflects the serious shortage of public investment in the vast rural and rural public the accumulation of capital, which should be the main reason of poverty in rural areas. Therefore, we should increase public investment in rural areas in the future the process of urbanization, promote the accumulation of public capital in the rural areas. The policy is also beneficial.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.21;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 于長(zhǎng)革;;政府公共投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2006年02期

2 何楓,陳榮,何林;我國(guó)資本存量的估算及其相關(guān)分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2003年05期

3 繆仕國(guó);馬軍偉;;公共資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響效應(yīng)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2006年02期

4 張勇;;中國(guó)資本存量、公共與私人資本存量的再估算和對(duì)比分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2010年06期

5 張軍,章元;對(duì)中國(guó)資本存量K的再估計(jì)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2003年07期

6 趙志耘,呂冰洋;政府生產(chǎn)性支出對(duì)產(chǎn)出-資本比的影響——基于中國(guó)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2005年11期

7 郭慶旺;賈俊雪;;政府公共資本投資的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2006年07期

8 金戈;;中國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資本存量估算[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2012年04期

9 武普照;王耀輝;;中國(guó)公共物質(zhì)資本存量估算:1978~2004[J];山東財(cái)政學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2007年01期

10 賀菊煌;;我國(guó)資產(chǎn)的估算[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1992年08期

，

本文編號(hào)：1652948