本文選題：國際石油價格波動　切入點：G7國家　出處：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：石油是現(xiàn)代工業(yè)生產的“血液”，1973年-1974年的第一次石油危機對美國造成了嚴重的影響，這次危機使得美國的經濟“縮水”了1/3，致使通貨膨脹率從之前的3.4%上升到危機時的12.2%，失業(yè)率從之前的4.9%上升到危機時的8.5%；20世紀80年代初的石油危機也對美、英等國家造成嚴重影響，使得美國的GDP負增長率分別達到0.2%，使得英國的GDP負增長率達到2.4%。石油價格的波動不僅對國別宏觀經濟造成沖擊，也會通過國家間的相互聯(lián)系從而對世界經濟產生影響。近些年來國際石油價格波動與世界經濟波動的影響關系出現(xiàn)了動態(tài)變化，尤其是進入1999年后，石油價格的不斷上漲不但沒有對世界經濟的影響出現(xiàn)了高油價、高經濟增長率和低通貨膨脹率三者并存的情況，并不是之前一直認為的負向作用。 經濟全球化正迅猛發(fā)展的今天，世界各國的相互聯(lián)系、相互依存的關系日益密切，這也使得世界整體經濟的運行情況影響到每個國家自身的社會經濟發(fā)展。如若還局限在一個封閉經濟體內對國際石油價格波動的影響進行研究，可能會弱化國際石油價格波動對經濟的沖擊作用，因此，研究國際石油價格波動對世界經濟波動的影響這一課題具有重要價值。在我國國內石油供給缺口不斷增大的背景下，國民經濟命脈更容易受制于人，因此，理清如何規(guī)避國際油價波動對我國宏觀經濟的沖擊效應也是一個迫在眉睫的熱點問題。 在這一背景下，本文在對國內外研究現(xiàn)狀進行綜述的基礎上，，對國際石油價格波動的研究基礎進行了深入分析，對國際石油價格波動對世界宏觀經濟波動產生的沖擊效應進行了實證分析，最后測度國際石油價格波動對中國宏觀經濟的沖擊效應。具體的內容如下： 以G7為代表的發(fā)達國家經濟體和以中國為代表的發(fā)展中國家經濟體為研究對象，采用季度及月度數據對石油價格對物價指數、進出口貿易額、失業(yè)率、GDP的沖擊效應進行了分析。結果發(fā)現(xiàn)對于石油依存度不同的國家而言，受到的沖擊各不相同，同時同類型石油依存度的國家，受到的沖擊效果基本相同，如加拿大和英國兩國受到沖擊后的所有宏觀指標變動方向基本一致；德國、法國和意大利三國受到沖擊后的所有宏觀指標變動方向基本一致。本文還對中國宏觀經濟指標受國際石油價格波動沖擊產生的效應進行了測度和分析。最后借鑒研究結論對中國提出石油戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展提供了啟示。
[Abstract]:Oil is the "blood" of modern industrial production. The first oil crisis from 1973 to 1974 had a serious impact on the United States. The crisis "shrank" the American economy by a third, causing inflation to rise from 3.4% before the crisis to 12.2and the unemployment rate rose from 4.9% before the crisis to 8.5 percent at the time of the crisis, and the oil crisis in the early 80s of the 20th century also affected the United States. Britain and other countries have serious effects, making the negative growth rate of GDP in the United States reach 0.2% respectively, and making the negative growth rate of GDP in Britain reach 2.4%. The fluctuation of oil prices not only has an impact on the macroeconomic of each country. It will also have an impact on the world economy through interconnectedness between countries. In recent years, the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the world economy has changed dynamically, especially since 1999. The rising oil price not only has no influence on the world economy, but also has a high oil price, a high economic growth rate and a low inflation rate. Today, with the rapid development of economic globalization, the interconnectedness and interdependence of all countries in the world are getting closer and closer. This also makes the functioning of the world economy as a whole affect the socio-economic development of each country itself... if it is confined to a closed economy to study the impact of international oil price fluctuations, It may weaken the impact of the international oil price fluctuation on the economy. Therefore, it is of great value to study the impact of the international oil price fluctuation on the world economic fluctuation. The lifeblood of national economy is easier to be controlled by others. Therefore, it is an urgent and hot issue to understand how to avoid the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China's macro economy. In this context, based on the review of the domestic and foreign research situation, the research foundation of international oil price fluctuation is deeply analyzed. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact effect of international oil price fluctuation on the world macroeconomic fluctuation, and finally measures the impact effect of international oil price fluctuation on China's macro economy. The specific contents are as follows:. The developed economies represented by the G7 and the developing economies represented by China are taken as the research objects. The quarterly and monthly data are used to analyze the oil price to the price index, the volume of import and export trade. The impact effects of the unemployment rate and GDP are analyzed. The results show that for countries with different oil dependence, the impact is different, and the impact effect is basically the same for the countries with the same type of oil dependence. For example, Canada and the United Kingdom were hit by the impact of all macro indicators change direction is basically the same; Germany, France and Italy are in the same direction after the impact. This paper also measures and analyzes the effects of the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on China's macroeconomic indicators. Finally, reference is made to the analysis of the effects of the impact of the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on China's macroeconomic indicators. The conclusion of the study provides inspiration for China's petroleum strategic development.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F416.22;F764.1;F113;F224

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