本文選題：全要素能源效率　切入點(diǎn)：回彈效應(yīng)　出處：《天津理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來，天津市經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，能源消耗持續(xù)增加，隨之帶來了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消耗增長之間的矛盾問題。能源問題成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中共同關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問題。如何在保障經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的前提下，最大可能地降低能源的消耗，節(jié)約能源，是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中需要面對(duì)的迫切問題。提高能源效率、降低能源消耗是緩解能源短缺問題的重要途徑。就天津市而言，通過提高能源使用效率是否能夠真正的降低能源消耗總量，以及其與能源利用效率的影響關(guān)系需要進(jìn)一步研究。本文圍繞提高能源效率和能源效率對(duì)能源回彈效應(yīng)的影響兩大核心問題，根據(jù)天津市歷年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、資本投入和能源消耗狀況，對(duì)天津市歷年的全要素能源效率進(jìn)行測(cè)算，然后基于能源效率測(cè)算天津市歷年的能源回彈效應(yīng)狀況。對(duì)全要素能源效率和能源回彈效應(yīng)的影響因素進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析，分析天津市1996-2011年的全要素能源效率和能源回彈效應(yīng)的變化狀況，分析影響它們變化的各種因素。并建立CGE模型對(duì)宏觀層面內(nèi)，現(xiàn)有政策和技術(shù)條件下能源效率對(duì)能源消費(fèi)、回彈效應(yīng)的影響狀況進(jìn)行分析，，對(duì)政策制定做出指導(dǎo)。具體研究內(nèi)容如下： 1.對(duì)國內(nèi)外有關(guān)全要素能源效率、回彈效應(yīng)、能源回彈效應(yīng)問題的已有研究進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)分析，對(duì)已有的研究理論以及研究方法進(jìn)行了歸納和總結(jié)，并對(duì)研究中存在的問題給出了相關(guān)評(píng)述，明確本文的研究的基本理論與基本方法。 2.對(duì)天津市歷年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和天津市能源消耗現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析，主要包括歷年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況、能源的生產(chǎn)情況、能源總體消耗水平等。 3.以天津市1996-2011年資本投入、勞動(dòng)力總數(shù)、能源消耗和GDP情況為基本數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用DEA-Malmquist指數(shù)法對(duì)天津市的全要素生產(chǎn)率、全要素能源效率進(jìn)行測(cè)算，并建立Tobit模型運(yùn)用Eviews6.0軟件從技術(shù)進(jìn)步、政府決策影響、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面對(duì)影響全要素能源效率的各種因素及其影響程度進(jìn)行分析，有針對(duì)性的提出提高能源效率的措施。 4.基于全要素能源效率對(duì)天津市1996-2011年的能源回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行測(cè)算，分析期間的能源回彈效應(yīng)的變化狀況。通過建立CGE模型運(yùn)用GAMS軟件對(duì)宏觀層面內(nèi)，現(xiàn)有政策和技術(shù)條件下能源效率對(duì)能源消費(fèi)、回彈效應(yīng)的影響狀況進(jìn)行分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Tianjin's economy has developed rapidly and energy consumption has continued to increase. This brings the contradiction between economic development and energy consumption growth. Energy issues have become the focus of common concern in economic development. How to reduce energy consumption as far as possible under the premise of ensuring rapid economic development, Energy conservation is an urgent problem in economic development. Improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption are important ways to alleviate energy shortage. Whether energy efficiency can really reduce the total amount of energy consumption, The relationship between energy efficiency and energy efficiency needs further study. This paper focuses on the two core issues of improving energy efficiency and energy efficiency on energy resilience, according to the economic growth of Tianjin over the years. The capital input and energy consumption, the total factor energy efficiency of Tianjin over the years, Then, based on the energy efficiency, the energy springback effect in Tianjin over the years is measured. The factors affecting energy efficiency and energy resilience are systematically analyzed. This paper analyzes the changes of total factor energy efficiency and energy springback effect in Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, and analyzes the various factors that affect their changes. The CGE model is established to analyze the energy consumption of energy efficiency under the existing policy and technology conditions at the macro level. The impact of the springback effect is analyzed, and the policy formulation is guided. The specific research contents are as follows:. 1. The existing researches on energy efficiency, springback effect and springback effect are systematically analyzed, and the existing research theories and methods are summarized and summarized. The existing problems in the research are reviewed, and the basic theory and methods of this study are clarified. 2. The economic development and energy consumption in Tianjin are analyzed, including the economic development, energy production and total energy consumption. 3. Based on the basic data of capital input, total labor force, energy consumption and GDP in Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, the total factor productivity and total factor energy efficiency of Tianjin were measured by DEA-Malmquist index method. The Tobit model is established and the Eviews6.0 software is used to analyze the factors affecting the energy efficiency of all factors from the aspects of technological progress, government decision making and energy consumption structure, and the measures to improve the energy efficiency are put forward. 4. Based on all-factor energy efficiency, the energy springback effect of Tianjin from 1996 to 2011 is measured, and the change of energy springback effect during this period is analyzed. Through the establishment of CGE model and GAMS software, the energy springback effect is analyzed. The impact of energy efficiency on energy consumption and resilience is analyzed under existing policies and technologies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F206

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