本文關(guān)鍵詞： 低碳城市 碳排放 脫鉤理論 路徑 大連市　出處：《遼寧師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前，全球氣候變暖已引起了國(guó)際社會(huì)的普遍關(guān)注。城市是溫室氣體的主要排放源。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),全球大城市的能源消耗量以及溫室氣體排放量均超過(guò)了全球總量的70%。在全球環(huán)境危機(jī)和中國(guó)能源緊張的背景下，城市發(fā)展的必然選擇即建設(shè)低碳城市。 本文在國(guó)內(nèi)外低碳城市相關(guān)研究現(xiàn)狀與低碳城市建設(shè)的基本理論的基礎(chǔ)上,首先分析了2000-2012年大連市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源消耗與科教現(xiàn)狀,然后闡述了大連市碳排放量的來(lái)源，接著運(yùn)用Kaya模型計(jì)算出了城市碳排放量，進(jìn)而采用脫鉤理論模型以及主要指標(biāo)法分別對(duì)大連市低碳城市發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，最后提出了大連市建設(shè)低碳城市的路徑。 本文的主要研究結(jié)論： （1）運(yùn)用Kaya碳排放計(jì)量模型,計(jì)算出2000-2012年大連市碳排放量與GDP總量、工業(yè)化率、城市化率三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)存在密切相關(guān)性,總體上呈現(xiàn)出正相關(guān)性，尤其是碳排放量與GDP總量之間幾乎表現(xiàn)為同步增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。 （2）利用碳排放貢獻(xiàn)因子模型，得出人均GDP、建筑面積、年電量消耗、年汽車數(shù)量等因素對(duì)大連市碳排放量有舉足輕重的作用。 （3）運(yùn)用脫鉤理論模型對(duì)大連市低碳城市發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，得出2004-2012年大連市低碳水平指數(shù)屬于O.5≤LLCI＜1，意味著大連市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展未擺脫碳基能源消耗的束縛，所以大連市是相對(duì)高碳城市。 （4）基于主要指標(biāo)法把大連市低碳城市發(fā)展水平與北京、上海、天津、武漢四個(gè)城市進(jìn)行對(duì)比，結(jié)果表明:大連市處于較低的低碳城市發(fā)展水平。 （5）根據(jù)大連實(shí)際情況，筆者分為三個(gè)層面提出了大連市建設(shè)低碳城市的路徑，，分別從加快低碳制度建設(shè)與政策制定的宏觀層面，優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、擴(kuò)大自然碳匯等城市低碳統(tǒng)籌的中觀層面以及倡導(dǎo)家庭低碳生活與引導(dǎo)企業(yè)低碳生產(chǎn)共進(jìn)的微觀層面進(jìn)行探討研究。
[Abstract]:At present, global warming has aroused widespread concern in the international community. Cities are the main sources of greenhouse gases. According to statistics, The energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the world's largest cities exceed 70% of the global total. Under the background of the global environmental crisis and China's energy shortage, the inevitable choice for urban development is to build low-carbon cities. Based on the research status quo of low-carbon cities at home and abroad and the basic theory of low-carbon city construction, this paper first analyzes the social and economic development, energy consumption and current situation of science and education in Dalian from 2000 to 2012, and then expounds the sources of carbon emissions in Dalian. Then the Kaya model is used to calculate the urban carbon emissions, and then the decoupling theory model and the main index method are used to evaluate the development level of low-carbon cities in Dalian. Finally, the path of constructing low-carbon cities in Dalian is put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1) using the Kaya carbon emission measurement model, it is found that there is a close correlation between carbon emissions and total GDP, industrialization rate and urbanization rate in Dalian from 2000 to 2012, and there is a positive correlation in general. In particular, carbon emissions and the total amount of GDP almost show a synchronous growth trend. 2) by using the contribution factor model of carbon emissions, it is concluded that the factors such as per capita GDP, building area, annual electricity consumption and the number of cars per year play an important role in the carbon emissions of Dalian. 3) using the decoupling theory model to evaluate the development level of low-carbon cities in Dalian, it is concluded that the index of low-carbon level in Dalian from 2004 to 2012 belongs to O.5 鈮

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