本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來,隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的迅速提升以及城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的加快,我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)得到了突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展。而且由于人們生活水平的提高,吃、穿、行占人們的收入及日常開支的比例逐年下降,這使得人們有更多的資金用來購房。另外,由于我國(guó)的人均住房面積和住房條件與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還有較大差距,因此我國(guó)對(duì)于住房還有較大的市場(chǎng)需求。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,改善城鎮(zhèn)面貌、提高國(guó)民的生活水平、刺激消費(fèi)、促進(jìn)投資、對(duì)一系列相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展起到了推動(dòng)作用。2010年以來,我國(guó)出臺(tái)了一系列房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)調(diào)控政策來抑制房?jī)r(jià)的上漲。另外,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)過度投資導(dǎo)致的行業(yè)內(nèi)部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇,使得房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)依靠粗放的投資方式既能獲得較大盈利的機(jī)會(huì)逐漸減少,項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的不穩(wěn)定因素增多。本文運(yùn)用項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本理論,以青島中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)房地產(chǎn)23#項(xiàng)目作為研究對(duì)象,在對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的項(xiàng)目區(qū)位、項(xiàng)目規(guī)模、交通環(huán)境等要素進(jìn)行分析之后,結(jié)合青島市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀對(duì)該項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究。在對(duì)中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)經(jīng)營(yíng)過程中存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)用德爾菲法進(jìn)行識(shí)別,找出13項(xiàng)影響中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用AHP模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果是該項(xiàng)目的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平較低。最后,在分析項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,采取不同的措施來應(yīng)對(duì)不同的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn),從而降低中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,確保中海-國(guó)際社區(qū)項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid improvement of our country's economic development level and the acceleration of the urbanization process, the real estate industry in our country has developed by leaps and bounds. Moreover, due to the improvement of people's living standards, food and clothing, The proportion of jobs in people's income and daily expenses is decreasing year by year, which makes people have more money to buy houses. In addition, because of the large gap between China's per capita housing area and housing conditions compared with developed countries, Therefore, there is still a large market demand for housing in our country. The rapid development of the real estate industry, the improvement of the appearance of cities and towns, the improvement of the people's living standards, the stimulation of consumption, and the promotion of investment, Since 2010, China has introduced a series of real estate industry regulation policies to curb the rise of house prices. In addition, the competition within the industry caused by overinvestment in the real estate industry has intensified. It makes the real estate industry rely on extensive investment mode can make a large profit opportunities gradually reduce, the unstable factors of project development increase. This paper applies the basic theory of project risk management, Taking Qingdao Zhonghai International Community Real Estate Project as the research object, after analyzing the project location, project scale, traffic environment and other factors of the project, Combined with the present situation of the real estate market in Qingdao, the project risk is studied. The Delphi method is used to identify the risks existing in the development and operation of the Zhonghai-International Community Project. To find out the 13 risk factors that influence the development of CSP-ICP, and to construct the risk index system of CSP-ICP on this basis. The AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of the Zhonghai-international community project. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive risk level of the project is low. Finally, based on the analysis of the risk evaluation results of the project, Different measures should be taken to deal with different project risks so as to reduce the risk level and ensure the smooth implementation of CSI projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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