本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳排放 碳稅 CGE模型 經(jīng)濟影響　出處：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國目前已經(jīng)是世界上能源消費量和碳排放量最大的國家之一,面臨著巨大的減排壓力：發(fā)展現(xiàn)代化、工業(yè)化、城市化建設(shè)對能源的需求量不斷增加；“富煤、少氣、缺油”的資源條件；煤炭在能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)中占據(jù)絕對的主導(dǎo)地位；產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以高耗能的第二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主；發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟又受到技術(shù)水平的制約。在此背景下,發(fā)展“低污染、低排放、低能耗”的低碳經(jīng)濟成為我國“十二五規(guī)劃”重要目標。 碳稅作為宏觀調(diào)控政策因為能夠有效地節(jié)能減排而受到國內(nèi)外廣泛關(guān)注。有關(guān)碳稅政策的研究有很多,其中CGE模型是最主流的政策分析工具。國內(nèi)學者也通過該模型對我國的能源與環(huán)境做了大量的研究,但研究區(qū)域的模型很少。因此,本文建立了一個研究北京能源消費與碳排放的靜態(tài)可計算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE),將北京市經(jīng)濟-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分為生產(chǎn)、貿(mào)易、收入和支出、社會福利、碳排放與碳稅、均衡等6個模塊,建立了一個靜態(tài)的CGE模型,并進行了實證研究,模擬分析了碳稅對北京地區(qū)的能源消費、碳排放量以及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響。通過模擬結(jié)果可以得到以下結(jié)論：隨著二氧化碳減排量的逐漸增加,對三種化石能源征收的的從價碳稅稅率也逐漸提高,其中稅率最高的是煤炭,其次是石油,天然氣與燃氣的從價稅稅率最低；煤炭、石油、天然氣與燃氣的需求量都隨著減排量的增加而下降,其中,煤炭、石油的下降比例比較大,天然氣與燃氣其次,清潔電力需求量明顯提高；絕大多數(shù)部門產(chǎn)出都有不同程度的下降,尤其高耗能部門產(chǎn)出下降程度明顯。研究結(jié)果表明,北京節(jié)能減排的關(guān)鍵在于減少煤炭的消耗,碳稅對減少北京市的化石能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量能夠起到積極的作用,有必要逐漸在北京實施。在未來的低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中,調(diào)整單一的、以煤炭為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu)、發(fā)展煤炭能源的清潔利用尤為重要。
[Abstract]:At present, China is one of the largest energy consumption and carbon emission countries in the world, and it is faced with enormous pressure of emission reduction: developing modernization, industrialization, urbanization and increasing demand for energy; "rich coal, less gas, lack of oil" resource conditions; Coal occupies an absolute dominant position in the structure of energy consumption; The industrial structure is mainly secondary industry with high energy consumption; Under this background, the development of low carbon economy with "low pollution, low emission and low energy consumption" has become an important goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan of our country. Carbon tax, as a macro-control policy, has attracted wide attention at home and abroad because it can effectively save energy and reduce emissions. There are a lot of research on carbon tax policy. CGE model is the most mainstream tool for policy analysis. Domestic scholars have also done a lot of research on energy and environment in China through this model, but there are few regional models. In this paper, a static computable general equilibrium model for the study of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing is established. The economic-environmental system of Beijing is divided into six modules: production, trade, income and expenditure, social welfare, carbon emissions and carbon tax, equilibrium. A static CGE model is established and an empirical study is carried out. The effects of carbon tax on energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic development in Beijing are simulated and analyzed. Through the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: with the increase of carbon dioxide emission reduction. The ad valorem carbon tax rate on the three kinds of fossil energy is also gradually increasing, among which coal is the highest, followed by oil, natural gas and gas ad valorem tax rate is the lowest; The demand for coal, oil, natural gas and gas all decreased with the increase of emission reduction. Most of the sector output has decreased in varying degrees, especially in the energy-intensive sector. The results show that the key to energy conservation and emission reduction in Beijing is to reduce coal consumption. Carbon tax can play a positive role in reducing the consumption of fossil energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing, it is necessary to gradually implement in Beijing. Coal-based energy structure, the development of clean use of coal energy is particularly important.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.42;F127;F205

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