本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住房市場 住房政策 差別化政策 VAR模型　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放之后，我國房地產(chǎn)市場得到了飛速的發(fā)展。尤其是住房市場化之后，商品住房的價格不斷攀升，上漲速度令人咋舌。而伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程迅速，大量農(nóng)村人口從農(nóng)村開始向城市轉(zhuǎn)移，并且數(shù)量越來越龐大，這一部分人對住房的需求一直高居不下。同時，伴隨著房價的高漲，商品住房逐漸演變?yōu)橐环N投資、保值、增值的商品，面對這一投資投機(jī)需求，房價更是進(jìn)一步上漲。從政府出臺政策進(jìn)行調(diào)控的目標(biāo)以及政策出臺的背景角度，可以分析出，政府出臺政策的最終目標(biāo)有三個，分別是實現(xiàn)住有所居、抑制房地產(chǎn)投資投機(jī)以及放緩房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、防止出現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫。 本文選取了金融政策、住房信貸政策、住房土地政策、住房稅收政策四項一級指標(biāo)共6個二級政策指標(biāo)，以及商品住房市場成交均價、成交面積，供給市場的商品住房市場總投資、供給面積、容積率、供給戶型以及存量面積7項市場指標(biāo)，實證分析了上海市政策實施后對商品住房市場產(chǎn)生的影響。分析得出，對成交均價有正向沖擊效用的分別是一年期存款準(zhǔn)備金率、存款基準(zhǔn)利率以及稅收政策，具有負(fù)的沖擊效用的分別有住房信貸政策以及土地購置面積，其中一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率影響最大；而對于成交面積的影響，以上六項政策中除了貸款基準(zhǔn)利率的上升會致使成交面積增加外，其他的都是會使得成交面積減少；對商品住房總投資具有正向沖擊效應(yīng)的只有住房土地政策，商業(yè)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率、一年期存款基準(zhǔn)利率、貸款基準(zhǔn)利率以及商品住房信貸政策對商品住房總投資具有負(fù)的沖擊效應(yīng)，其中住房信貸政策貢獻(xiàn)率最大，住房稅收政策對住宅投資變化的不具有貢獻(xiàn)率；對供給面積具有正向促進(jìn)作用的只有土地購置面積；除了土地購置面積外，其他5項政策對容積率有正向作用；除了存款基準(zhǔn)利率外，其他5項政策對90m2以下竣工價值具有同向作用。 根據(jù)以上實證分析的結(jié)果，本文分別站在不同的角度提出政策制定的建議，第一是從市場指標(biāo)的角度給制定相應(yīng)房地產(chǎn)政策提出建議，另一個是從政策制定目的的角度提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。另外，從實證分析中可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，房產(chǎn)稅的試點——住房稅收政策的實施，并沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期的效果，即對市場指標(biāo)的沖擊作用不強(qiáng)，，可能是由于稅收政策尚在試點，政策幅度不夠大，導(dǎo)致對市場的影響貢獻(xiàn)比較小。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the real estate market in China has been rapid development. Especially after the housing market, commodity housing prices continue to climb, rising at a staggering speed. And with the development of our economy. The rapid process of urbanization, a large number of rural people from rural to urban transfer, and the number of more and more large, this part of the demand for housing has been high. At the same time, with the rise of house prices. Commodity housing has gradually evolved into a kind of investment, preservation, value-added goods, facing the speculative demand for investment, housing prices are further rising. From the government policy to control the target and the background of the policy. It can be analyzed that the final goal of the government policy is to achieve housing, curb speculation in real estate investment and slow down the real estate economy, prevent the emergence of a real estate bubble. This article selects the financial policy, the housing credit policy, the housing land policy, the housing tax policy four first class indexes altogether 6 secondary policy indicators, as well as the commodity housing market transaction price, the transaction area. The total investment, supply area, volume ratio, supply type and stock area of the commodity housing market in the supply market are 7 market indicators. Empirical analysis of the impact on the commodity housing market after the implementation of policies in Shanghai. The results show that the positive impact on the average transaction price is the one-year deposit reserve ratio deposit benchmark interest rate and tax policy. The negative impact effect of housing credit policy and land acquisition area, in which the benchmark one-year loan interest rate has the greatest impact; For the impact of transaction area, the above six policies in addition to the increase in the benchmark interest rate of loans will lead to an increase in the transaction area, the other will make the transaction area reduced; Only the housing land policy, the reserve ratio of commercial banks and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposit have positive impact on the total investment of commodity housing. The benchmark interest rate of loan and the policy of commodity housing credit have negative impact effect on the total investment of commodity housing, among which the contribution rate of housing credit policy is the biggest, and the housing tax policy has no contribution rate to the change of housing investment. Only land purchase area has positive effect on supply area; In addition to land acquisition area, the other five policies have a positive impact on the volume rate; In addition to the deposit benchmark interest rate, the other five policies have the same effect on the completion value below 90 m2. According to the results of the above empirical analysis, this paper respectively put forward policy recommendations from different angles, the first is to formulate the corresponding real estate policy recommendations from the perspective of market indicators. The other is to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of the purpose of policy development. In addition, from the empirical analysis, we can find that the implementation of housing tax policy, the pilot housing tax, has not achieved the desired results. That is, the impact on market indicators is not strong, may be due to the tax policy is still in the pilot, the policy range is not large enough, resulting in the impact on the market contribution is relatively small.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李莉;付兵濤;;基于北京數(shù)據(jù)的我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫測度研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2011年03期

2 張齊武;徐燕雯;;經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房還是公共租賃房?——對住房保障政策改革的反思[J];公共管理學(xué)報;2010年04期

3 王宏波;;當(dāng)前我國房產(chǎn)稅的改革問題[J];甘肅社會科學(xué);2013年04期

4 姚剛;;國外公共政策績效評估研究與借鑒[J];深圳大學(xué)學(xué)報(人文社會科學(xué)版);2008年04期

5 范廣垠;;我國房地產(chǎn)政策宏觀分析的模型與方法——以1998-2009年房地產(chǎn)政策為例[J];同濟(jì)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2010年01期

6 王要武;金海燕;;我國房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控政策效果的實證分析[J];土木工程學(xué)報;2008年08期

7 陳杰;;房產(chǎn)稅試點初評與房產(chǎn)稅改革深化的意義[J];探索與爭鳴;2011年05期

8 張爾剛;;經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房困境的公共政策學(xué)分析[J];市場周刊(理論研究);2014年01期

9 汪利娜;;我國保障性住房政策演變及思考[J];現(xiàn)代城市研究;2009年12期

10 劉金全;隋建利;李楠;;基于非線性VAR模型對我國貨幣政策非對稱作用效應(yīng)的實證檢驗[J];中國管理科學(xué);2009年03期

本文編號：1447661