本文關(guān)鍵詞：影響GDP增長的經(jīng)濟因素分析　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： GDP 居民消費水平 農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值 回歸分析 Granger因果檢驗

【摘要】：本文通過2011年的《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》收集了中國從1978年至2010年近三十年的數(shù)據(jù)，包括能源消費總量、就業(yè)人員、居民消費水平、農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值以及社會消費品零售總額，用于定量研究。在定量分析研究時，用到了相關(guān)分析、回歸分析及組合預測等數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法，利用SPSS16.0, EVIEWS6.0兩種軟件對各組數(shù)據(jù)進行分析得出分別得到如下結(jié)論： 用線性回歸分析得出農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值對GDP的影響不顯著；各個因素的多重共線性診斷得出居民消費水平和農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值之間存在多重共線性關(guān)系；用協(xié)整的辦法去討論與研究各個因素之間的相互關(guān)系得到中國居民消費水平與農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值不僅雙因果關(guān)系顯著，而且二者的協(xié)整關(guān)系也是長期的；中國居民消費水平與GDP,沒有顯著的雙因果關(guān)系，但存在一定的協(xié)整關(guān)系；中國農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與GDP有顯著的雙因果關(guān)系，但不存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。 本文中在Granger因果關(guān)系和Johansen協(xié)整關(guān)系的分析的基礎(chǔ)上，還對中國居民消費水平與農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值之間進行了VEC模型的擬合，通過模型中的協(xié)整方程發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國居民消費水平與農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系是負向的，而且擬合結(jié)果也被檢驗了，說明這個模型是有效的。 通過一系列統(tǒng)計檢驗可以說明：中國GDP的增長與能源消費總量,居民消費水平有很高的相關(guān)性。其中，又以居民消費水平的影響程度最為顯著。由此可以看出影響中國GDP的主要因素是居民消費水平，能源消費總量。
[Abstract]:This paper collected China from 1978 to 2010 nearly thirty years of data through the 2011 statistical yearbook Chinese < >, including the total energy consumption, employment, consumption level, agricultural total production value and total retail sales of social consumer goods, for the quantitative study. In quantitative analysis, using correlation analysis, regression analysis and forecasting such as the method of mathematical statistics, using SPSS16.0 statistical analysis, draw the following conclusions were obtained from two software EVIEWS6.0:
By linear regression analysis of the total agricultural output value of GDP is not significant; the factors of multicollinearity diagnosis of multicollinearity between the consumption level and the total agricultural output value; the relationship between using cointegration methods to discuss and study the various factors to Chinese consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value not only double significant causal relationship, and the relationship between the two CO is a long term; Chinese consumption level and GDP, no significant causal relationship between the two, but there is a cointegration relationship a significant causal relationship; double Chinese total agricultural output and GDP, but there is no cointegration relationship.
This paper based on the analysis of the relationship between Granger and Johansen causality Association on the Chinese between the consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value were fitted to the VEC model, through the model of cointegration equation between Chinese found that the consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value of the correlation is negative, and fitting the results were also tested, shows that this model is effective.
Through a series of statistical tests show China GDP growth and the total energy consumption, there is a high correlation between the level of consumption. Among them, the influence of the consumption level of residents is the most significant. It can be seen that the main factors affecting the China GDP is the level of consumption, the total energy consumption.

【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.1;F224

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 柯珂,張世英;ARCH模型的診斷分析[J];管理科學學報;2001年02期

2 吳國富,孫傳忠,呂有;ARCH、GARCH模型參數(shù)估計樣本分布的Monte Carlo研究[J];數(shù)理統(tǒng)計與應用概率;1998年03期

3 苗實,劉海龍,潘德惠;ARCH模型的研究與探討[J];信息與控制;1999年05期

，

本文編號：1417630